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Post by QuadSquad03 on Mar 4, 2019 17:21:35 GMT -6
There was a thread that went on for a while on the MFA forums with predictions for the 2019 season, but now that it's lost to the depths of the internet, I thought it would be a good idea to start one up on this forum.
With Texas returning to GN after their off-year and new regionals popping up, this could be a very interesting year for BOA. Maybe a few new bands will come out of hiding and shock everyone. What bands will do well and not so well this season?
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Post by OldSchoolTrumpet on Mar 4, 2019 17:39:29 GMT -6
Random thoughts....
Without knowing exactly which groups are coming to GN's, it's difficult to make specific predictions. But clearly 5 Texas groups will make finals, more likely 6. I can't predict 7 but it's not outside the realm of possibility depending on the panel and who the mix of bands ends up being. I'll say six for Texas.
I look for William Mason to make strides again to reach the level they were before the director change. With so many top Texas groups coming (allegedly) Mason may not place a lot higher than last season, but I think they'll be significantly stronger.
Avon out of the top 3? Maybe. It could have happened last year, really. I can't predict another win for Carmel, though even with all the Texas groups I think their visual design will stand out. With Castle not coming this could be the year for only two Indiana bands in finals. I'm not seeing CG or LT faring that favorably against the presumed lineup, and Homestead would be a fringe group here. I'm anxious to see how Fishers builds on last season. I'm not sure they are ready for finalist talk though.
I'll also be interested to see how Castle comes back from last season's disappointment. I'm on the fence regarding Castle, and whether their two years of finals were the beginning of something, or just a couple of seasons where things went their way. Apparently they won't be at GN's though.
Maybe I'll have more random thoughts later, but now I gotta check the meatloaf.
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Post by boahistorybuff on Mar 4, 2019 17:54:10 GMT -6
There was a thread that went on for a while on the MFA forums with predictions for the 2019 season, but now that it's lost to the depths of the internet, I thought it would be a good idea to start one up on this forum. With Texas returning to GN after their off-year and new regionals popping up, this could be a very interesting year for BOA. Maybe a few new bands will come out of hiding and shock everyone. What bands will do well and not so well this season? I have Bixby on my radar.  |
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Post by QuadSquad03 on Mar 4, 2019 18:50:02 GMT -6
I have Bixby on my radar. If Bixby can pull off another season doing as good or better than we did last year, I think it would propel the band to become solidified as one of Oklahoma's great bands. Same with Jenks. |
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Post by oboe12 on Mar 4, 2019 20:31:52 GMT -6
Operating under the assumption BA is not attending...
The "Texas Five" known as The Woodlands, Claudia Taylor Johnson, Hebron, Leander, and Vandegrift are all locks, and the three former all have a shot at winning the Eagle. Leander & Vandgrift are great, of course - don't get me wrong. But The Woodlands has already won four rounds of a Grand National Championship, and Hebron has once. CTJ has won San Antonio twice. Leander & Vandegrift don't quite have the qualifications to be in the running for champion, but both are good enough to medal should the former three have down years.
Round Rock has to be better than last year to make it in.
But beyond the Texas Five, and Avon & Carmel... we don't have a ton of locks, and that leaves five spots open. I think Homestead is all but guaranteed one of them, as is Mason. So three. Without Dobyns-Bennett and Castle, these three look harder to fill. Marian Catholic will perform that night either way, but I lean towards them being in finals. And, honestly, I think there's a good chance that Round Rock will be, too.
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Post by es203 on Mar 4, 2019 21:29:46 GMT -6
Looking at regionals, I think that if Wando goes to Orlando, they have a really good shot at taking down Tarpon. It's going to be awesome to watch these two bands compete next year.
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Post by QuadSquad03 on Mar 4, 2019 22:35:56 GMT -6
I think the locks for GN finals will be:
Hebron
The Woodlands
CTJ
Vandegrift
Carmel
Avon
Mason
Leander
Bands that have a good chance:
Union
Round Rock
Center Grove
Marian Catholic
Homestead
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Post by principalagent on Mar 5, 2019 11:29:24 GMT -6
Leander can have a worse season than 2017 and still waltz right into finals. They’re a lock and that’s not up for debate.
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Post by OldSchoolTrumpet on Mar 5, 2019 11:46:17 GMT -6
I think the locks for GN finals will be:
Hebron
The Woodlands
CTJ
Vandegrift
Carmel
Avon
Mason
Bands that have a good chance:
Union
Leander
Round Rock
Centerville
Marian Catholic---------------------------------------- What's the thought on Centerville? They've been out of finals for several years now, and this year promises to be particularly brutal. |
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Post by LeanderMomma on Mar 5, 2019 12:50:28 GMT -6
Leander can have a worse season than 2017 and still waltz right into finals. They’re a lock and that’s not up for debate. I agree with you. Leander not making finals isn't in question. I just wasn't sure how to nicely say it.  I mean I guess it's POSSIBLE...if we have a HORRIBLE year (by Leander standards), but I really hadn't considered Leander not making finals in Indy this fall. |
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Post by QuadSquad03 on Mar 5, 2019 13:00:22 GMT -6
I think the locks for GN finals will be:
Hebron
The Woodlands
CTJ
Vandegrift
Carmel
Avon
Mason
Bands that have a good chance:
Union
Leander
Round Rock
Centerville
Marian Catholic---------------------------------------- What's the thought on Centerville? They've been out of finals for several years now, and this year promises to be particularly brutal. I meant Center Grove. Oops |
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Post by LeanderMomma on Mar 5, 2019 16:02:57 GMT -6
I agree with you. Leander not making finals isn't in question. I just wasn't sure how to nicely say it. I mean I guess it's POSSIBLE...if we have a HORRIBLE year (by Leander standards), but I really hadn't considered Leander not making finals in Indy this fall. Now that I'm really thinking about it... I don't know why I put Leander where I did. After finishing 6th at SA last year they will almost definitely make finals No worries! I mean it’s always possible that one of the top tier bands could miss finals at GN if they have a really off year or something goes terribly wrong, but odds are in favor of Leander making finals again in Indy. We got 6th place in Indy in 2016, and we have medaled twice in San Antonio since 2014. |
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Post by oboe12 on Mar 6, 2019 10:06:57 GMT -6
Leander isn't in the conversation for finals, in my opinion.
They're in the conversation for a medal.
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Post by LeanderMomma on Mar 6, 2019 10:25:07 GMT -6
Leander isn't in the conversation for finals, in my opinion. They're in the conversation for a medal. I sure hope you're right, but I never know how it's going to go in Texas with the top bands until around the mid to late October point. Which is part of the fun, really.  Who wants to always know who's going to win every single year? |
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Post by marimba11 on Mar 7, 2019 19:04:40 GMT -6
There is going to be a lot of upheaval in the Carolinas this year. Both the Cary bands and the Fort Mill bands are each getting a new high school: Green Level (Cary) and Catawba Ridge (Fort Mill). Panther Creek will be shrinking by about 60 students rumored and Nation Ford about the same (maybe more). Green Hope Director is going to Green Level and Nation Ford Director is going to Catawba Ridge. This is also the last year Wando will be the only high school in Mt. Pleasant, when Lucy Beckham opens in 2020. This will certainly leave Byrnes, DB, Wando, and the Cobb County bands with a clear advantage in the southeast this season. |
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Post by cornet on Mar 7, 2019 20:18:37 GMT -6
There is going to be a lot of upheaval in the Carolinas this year. Both the Cary bands and the Fort Mill bands are each getting a new high school: Green Level (Cary) and Catawba Ridge (Fort Mill). Panther Creek will be shrinking by about 60 students rumored and Nation Ford about the same (maybe more). Green Hope Director is going to Green Level and Nation Ford Director is going to Catawba Ridge. This is also the last year Wando will be the only high school in Mt. Pleasant, when Lucy Beckham opens in 2020. This will certainly leave Byrnes, DB, Wando, and the Cobb County bands with a clear advantage in the southeast this season. Brent Harris was an excellent director at East Lincoln and he worked with Green Hope a few summers ago while in grad school. Seems like a logical fit. |
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Post by Subito Fortissimo on Mar 7, 2019 20:45:58 GMT -6
Brent Harris was an excellent director at East Lincoln and he worked with Green Hope a few summers ago while in grad school. Seems like a logical fit. He's taking over Green Hope? I had not heard that. Or is this just speculation on a potential replacement? |
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Post by cornet on Mar 8, 2019 4:51:03 GMT -6
Brent Harris was an excellent director at East Lincoln and he worked with Green Hope a few summers ago while in grad school. Seems like a logical fit. He's taking over Green Hope? I had not heard that. Or is this just speculation on a potential replacement? Oh heavens no utter speculation on my part. Sorry for the confusion. |
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Post by Subito Fortissimo on Mar 8, 2019 9:53:42 GMT -6
He's taking over Green Hope? I had not heard that. Or is this just speculation on a potential replacement? Oh heavens no utter speculation on my part. Sorry for the confusion. Ok haha. Definitely surprised me. Brent is an acquaintance of mine and I'm closely associated with people who know him well. I'm pretty sure he is interested in returning to NC and Green Hope would be a good fit. |
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Post by oboe12 on Mar 8, 2019 14:34:41 GMT -6
Both the Cary bands and the Fort Mill bands are each getting a new high school: Green Level (Cary) and Catawba Ridge (Fort Mill). So this begs the question - does the Fort Mill school district require Martin Dickey to switch to a new school every time one opens? He did the same thing when Nation Ford opened a little over a decade ago when he left Fort Mill HS. |
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Post by marimba11 on Mar 9, 2019 17:33:59 GMT -6
So this begs the question - does the Fort Mill school district require Martin Dickey to switch to a new school every time one opens? He did the same thing when Nation Ford opened a little over a decade ago when he left Fort Mill HS. Haha. Good question! To my knowledge he will only be there for one year just to get the program up and running, then will retire. I believe the assistant director will become the new director. Not sure if this is common knowledge or not...  |
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Post by jazzbone on Mar 9, 2019 21:51:15 GMT -6
Although scores can’t be compared from competition to competition, I think there’s a viable point to make. Last year at Orlando, Tarpon was above Park Vista by 3.15 points. Had Park Vista gone to nationals last year, assuming that further practice and cleaning kept them at about the same level relative to Tarpon and they had good runs, they’d score anywhere around a 91, almost comfortably putting them in finals when looking at the results from last year. That puts them right around the same level as Mason last year, and this year should be just as strong, if not stronger. I’d consider them a potential contender for a finals spot this year in those regards, but anything can happen.
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Post by QuadSquad03 on Mar 9, 2019 22:25:58 GMT -6
Although scores can’t be compared from competition to competition, I think there’s a viable point to make. Last year at Orlando, Tarpon was above Park Vista by 3.15 points. Had Park Vista gone to nationals last year, assuming that further practice and cleaning kept them at about the same level relative to Tarpon and they had good runs, they’d score anywhere around a 91, almost comfortably putting them in finals when looking at the results from last year. That puts them right around the same level as Mason last year, and this year should be just as strong, if not stronger. I’d consider them a potential contender for a finals spot this year in those regards, but anything can happen. I wouldń't consider them a lock this year because of all of the Texas bands going, plus Carmel, Avon, and all of the other finals tier bands that will go, but I think they will definitely be a contender for finals |
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Post by jazzbone on Mar 9, 2019 23:16:06 GMT -6
Although scores can’t be compared from competition to competition, I think there’s a viable point to make. Last year at Orlando, Tarpon was above Park Vista by 3.15 points. Had Park Vista gone to nationals last year, assuming that further practice and cleaning kept them at about the same level relative to Tarpon and they had good runs, they’d score anywhere around a 91, almost comfortably putting them in finals when looking at the results from last year. That puts them right around the same level as Mason last year, and this year should be just as strong, if not stronger. I’d consider them a potential contender for a finals spot this year in those regards, but anything can happen. I wouldń't consider them a lock this year because of all of the Texas bands going, plus Carmel, Avon, and all of the other finals tier bands that will go, but I think they will definitely be a contender for finals I never said they’re a lock, only that they are contender for a spot |
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Post by QuadSquad03 on Mar 9, 2019 23:34:47 GMT -6
I wouldń't consider them a lock this year because of all of the Texas bands going, plus Carmel, Avon, and all of the other finals tier bands that will go, but I think they will definitely be a contender for finals I never said they’re a lock, only that they are contender for a spot I know. I was just saying what I thought about it |
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Post by marimba11 on Mar 10, 2019 16:58:11 GMT -6
Park Vista does stand a good shot at finals. Last year they proved they can really play with great tone and quality. Going into the season I’d put them at a similar level as say like a Winston Churchill, but with a great show and quality elements I could definitely see them in finals come November.
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Post by 18Saxes on Mar 11, 2019 7:19:00 GMT -6
Although scores can’t be compared from competition to competition, I think there’s a viable point to make. Last year at Orlando, Tarpon was above Park Vista by 3.15 points. Had Park Vista gone to nationals last year, assuming that further practice and cleaning kept them at about the same level relative to Tarpon and they had good runs, they’d score anywhere around a 91, almost comfortably putting them in finals when looking at the results from last year. That puts them right around the same level as Mason last year, and this year should be just as strong, if not stronger. I’d consider them a potential contender for a finals spot this year in those regards, but anything can happen. I would also like to point out Carmel beat Centerville at Oxford by 4.80 points. Fast forward to nationals, in semis, Carmel beat Centerville by 14.25 points, and that’s without Centerville’s penalty. While I agree that they are a possible finalist this year, the logic isn’t quite there. |
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Post by OldSchoolTrumpet on Mar 11, 2019 17:09:33 GMT -6
Although scores can’t be compared from competition to competition, I think there’s a viable point to make. Last year at Orlando, Tarpon was above Park Vista by 3.15 points. Had Park Vista gone to nationals last year, assuming that further practice and cleaning kept them at about the same level relative to Tarpon and they had good runs, they’d score anywhere around a 91, almost comfortably putting them in finals when looking at the results from last year. That puts them right around the same level as Mason last year, and this year should be just as strong, if not stronger. I’d consider them a potential contender for a finals spot this year in those regards, but anything can happen.
Fast forward to nationals, in semis, Carmel beat Centerville by 14.25 points, and that’s without Centerville’s penalty.
While I agree that they are a possible finalist this year, the logic isn’t quite there._________________________________ Correct. The spreads at a huge competition like GN's will always be larger, given that there are so many groups that need to be slotted in. So while Park Vista may have only been 3 points back of Tarpon at Orlando, they were also only 2 points ahead of Stoneman Douglas, and Timber Creek. So forecasting a 91+ at GN's based on the Orlando score is really stretching it. That said, I |
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Post by cornet on Apr 13, 2019 8:06:17 GMT -6
Cary director just resigned after having been suspended pending investigation a month or so ago. Tough situation there.
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Post by jeremiah on Apr 14, 2019 10:51:37 GMT -6
Looking at regionals, I think that if Wando goes to Orlando, they have a really good shot at taking down Tarpon. It's going to be awesome to watch these two bands compete next year. I agree, It’s very possible Tarpon ends up third at Orlando. |
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Who wants to always know who's going to win every single year? 
