At the end of the Week 5 (though July 28) ...
1. -- 91.30 Reading Buccaneers (July 27)
2. -- 89.85 Hawthorne Caballeros (July 27)
3. -- 87.85 Bushwackers (July 27)
Comparing to the past twenty seasons, these were the top three scores at two weeks before championships (i.e., in mid-August) and those corps' Prelims/Finals scores at championships:
2023Reading Buccaneers: 92.20 >>> 97.70/99.00
Hawthorne Caballeros: 90.90 >>> 95.25/97.00
Bushwackers 86.05 >>> 91.20/92.20
2022Reading Buccaneers: 90.65 >>> 96.88/97.60
Hawthorne Caballeros: 91.60 >>> 96.33/96.73
Bushwackers: 84.60 >>> 92.53/94.60
(I'm skipping 2021 because I'm not sure an all-virtual season is comparable. And there were no shows in 2020.)
2019Reading Buccaneers: 91.65 >>> 96.50/98.23
Hawthorne Caballeros: 90.05 >>> 93.93/95.20 (Finals: 3rd)
Bushwackers: 84.85 >>> 90.33/91.63 (5th)
(Prelims and Finals were on the same day this year.)
2018Reading Buccaneers: 86.95 (C-5) >>> 97.83/98.00
White Sabers 86.20 (C-3) >>> 92.10/91.74 (7th)
Fusion Core 86.05 (C-3) >>> 93.10/92.88 (4th)
2017Reading Buccaneers: 93.45 >>> 98.28/98.93
Hawthorne Caballeros: 90.25 >>> 94.40/94.38 (4th)
White Sabers: 89.85 >>> 92.78/93.38 (5th)
2016Reading Buccaneers: 93.75 >>> 97.03/97.25 (2nd)
Minnesota Brass: 91.65 >>> 95.55/96.95 (3rd)
Cadets2: 90.90 >>> 97.68/97.95 (1st)
2015Reading Buccaneers: 91.70 >>> 97.23/97.58
Hawthorne Caballeros: 91.05 >>> 95.20/94.88 (4th)
Minnesota Brass: 90.90 >>> 94.98/95.40 (3rd)
2014Hawthorne Caballeros: 92.60 >>> 96.85/96.53 (T-2nd)*
Reading Buccaneers: 92.55 >>> 95.95/97.55 (1st)
Minnesota Brass: 92.35 >>> 96.40/96.53 (T-2nd)
*Caballeros were penalized one point at Finals for stepping over the front boundary line, which dropped them to third place.
2013Minnesota Brass: 94.15 >>> 96.70/96.65 (2nd)
Reading Buccaneers: 93.95 >>> 97.98/98.43 (1st)
Hawthorne Caballeros: 91.80 >>> 96.18/96.98 (2nd)
2012Reading Buccaneers: 92.95 >>> 98.50/99.03
Minnesota Brass: 91.35 >>> 95.80/96.23
Hawthorne Caballeros: 89.90 >>> 94.83/94.78
2011Minnesota Brass: 94.25 >>> 97.73/98.35
Reading Buccaneers 93.00 >>> 97.43/97.45
Connecticut Hurricanes 91.95 >>> 94.30/94.35 (4th)
2010Reading Buccaneers: 93.40 >>> 97.50/98.26
Minnesota Brass: 93.22 >>> 95.56/97.23
Connecticut Hurricanes: 92.30 >>> 94.35/95.34 (4th)
2009Minnesota Brass: 93.64 >>> 94.88/97.59 (2nd)
Empire Statesmen: 92.64 >>> 92.76/96.20 (3rd)
Hawthorne Caballeros: 92.13 >>> 92.61/94.24 (5th)
2008Reading Buccaneers: 93.24 >>> 98.14/97.91
Empire Statesmen: 91.43 >>> 96.01/95.06 (3rd)
Minnesota Brass: 91.01 >>> 95.11/96.51 (2nd)
2007Reading Buccaneers: 93.59 >>> 97.39/98.31
Empire Statesmen: 92.13 >>> 95.56/95.65 (3rd)
Hawthorne Caballeros: 90.93 >>> 96.66/96.65 (2nd)
2006Reading Buccaneers: 92.79 >>> 97.28/97.24
Empire Statesmen: 92.50 >>> 96.96/96.95
Bushwackers: 91.44 >>> 95.36/95.64
2005Reading Buccaneers: 93.58 >>> 97.48/98.45
Bushwackers: 92.11 >>> 95.00/94.74 (3rd)
Empire Statesmen: 91.55 >>> 94.41/95.23 (2nd)
2004Syracuse Brigadiers: 90.95 >>> 95.58/96.19 (2nd)
Empire Statesmen: 90.59 >>> 96.86/96.51 (1st)
Hawthorne Caballeros: 90.46 >>> 94.89/95.10 (4th)
2003Syracuse Brigadiers: 91.95 >>> 95.94/96.08 (2nd)
Hawthorne Caballeros: 90.34 (C-3) >>> 97.44/97.38 (1st)
Empire Statesmen: 90.19 >>> 95.53/95.81
2002Syracuse Brigadiers: 93.90 >>> 96.65/98.60
Empire Statesmen: 91.90 >>> 94.90/96.75
Reading Buccaneers: 91.10 >>> 94.00/95.55
I rounded these to the nearest one-hundredth of a point. A note reading "C-3" or "C-4" means that corps' score was not two weeks but three or four weeks before championships. Before doing any averages, I've adjusted those four instances to estimate what that corps' score would have been if they had competed two weeks out.
A key point is that because the all-age corps perform mainly on weekends, and sometimes skip a weekend, one rained out show or weekend off can skew the rankings in a big way. I would also note that until quite recently, a number of all-age corps would sometimes have shows on both the Saturday and the Sunday of a given weekend, doubling their chances of getting a helpful score.
Historically, the top three scores two weeks before championships are:
1. average 92.89, median 93.32 (range: 90.65-94.25) -- compare to 2024 Buccaneers at 91.30.
2. average 91.60, median 91.71 (range: 87.31-93.95) -- compare to 2024 Caballeros at 89.85.
3. average 90.08, median 90.92 (range: 84.60-92.35) -- compare to 2024 Bushwackers at 87.85.
We are five weeks out from what had been the all-age championship weekend from 1967 to 2023. So either the scoring curve has been adjusted to lower expectations, or the corps figured out how to make the new schedule mostly work for them: these scores are in the low end of the historical range, but they're in it.
Next the question is: how much are the corps likely to improve over the next two weeks, and what does it mean that there are only Finals with no Prelims this year? On average, the 60 examples listed above improved 0.64 points between Prelims on Saturday and Finals on Sunday. Even in 2019, when both events were held on Saturday because of the threat of severe weather on Sunday, the top corps improved by more than that. (All that said, it appears to me that it was likelier in DCA than in DCI to see a top corps' score drop between Prelims and Finals. And for what it's worth, my quick impression is that Caballeros seem to struggle at championships relative to other corps.) I'm not sure how corps are planning to rehearse for a Saturday morning championship. I thought the performances in the 2019 Prelims were shaky compared to what I'm used to (Prelims on Saturday afternoon-evening, Finals on Sunday evening). Have they set aside rehearsal time on Friday?
These are the average increases in score at Prelims for the corps who held the top three scores two weeks earlier:
1. average 4.21, median 4.30 (range 1.24-6.23) -- foretells 2024 Buccaneers at 95.5.
2. average 3.93, median 4.15 (range 0.12-6.27) -- foretells 2024 Caballeros at 93.8.
3. average 4.33, median 4.24 (range 0.48-7.93) -- foretells 2024 Bushwackers at 92.2.
In other words, a step down from previous years. Of course it won't be that straightforward. Bushwackers beat Caballeros earlier this season. It may happen again this Sunday in Downington. And maybe the corps have made adjustments for this new model that will get them closer to their historical averages.