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Post by macwinlin on Oct 13, 2019 18:58:21 GMT -6
My predictions:
1. Broken Arrow, OK 2. Blue Springs, MO 3. Rosemount, MN 4. LD Bell, TX 5. Coppell, TX 6. Jenks, OK 7. O'Fallon Township, IL 8. Camdenton, MO 9. Union, OK 10. Bixby, OK 11. Lake Travis, TX 12. Haltom, TX 13. Franklin, TN 14. Grain Valley, MO
Probably way off. Still, I don't see Bixby being top 6 at the moment. I predict the spread will be about 8 points.
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Post by bassoooon on Oct 13, 2019 20:42:49 GMT -6
My predictions: 1. Broken Arrow, OK 2. Blue Springs, MO 3. Rosemount, MN 4. LD Bell, TX 5. Coppell, TX 6. Jenks, OK 7. O'Fallon Township, IL 8. Camdenton, MO 9. Union, OK 10. Bixby, OK 11. Lake Travis, TX 12. Haltom, TX 13. Franklin, TN 14. Grain Valley, MO Probably way off. Still, I don't see Bixby being top 6 at the moment. I predict the spread will be about 8 points. I like this list. Camdenton had extremely strong showings in Cedar Falls and Broken Arrow (even taking the music caption over Jenks), and I could see them moving even higher than O'Fallon, depending on whether the latter has made significant improvements since Cedar Falls. LD Bell hasn't really shown us evidence that they're at the top of the top with Blue Springs and Broken Arrow, but I agree that they are still safely near the top of the group of bands like Coppell, Rosemount, and Jenks. I might actually disagree about Bixby, though - they won at Owasso against Jenks and Union - but I agree that they probably aren't quite top 6.
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Post by bassoooon on Oct 13, 2019 21:29:43 GMT -6
My predictions:
Class A 1. Union City 2. Hollister 3. Monticello Union City sweeps captions
Class AA 1. Camdenton 2. Grain Valley 3. Air Academy Music: Camdenton Visual: Camdenton GE: Grain Valley
Class AAA 1. Blue Springs 2. Rosemount 3. Bixby Music: Rosemount Visual: Blue Springs GE: Blue Springs
Class AAAA 1. Broken Arrow 2. Jenks 3. LD Bell BA sweeps captions
Finals: 1. Broken Arrow 2. Blue Springs 3. Jenks 4. Rosemount 5. LD Bell 6. Camdenton 7. Bixby 8. Coppell 9. O'Fallon Township 10. Union 11. Haltom 12. Lake Travis 13. Franklin 14. Lincoln Music: Broken Arrow Visual: Broken Arrow and Blue Springs GE: Broken Arrow
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Post by Jake W. on Oct 14, 2019 3:56:09 GMT -6
This is pretty easily the deepest level of talent I've seen at STL over the last 10 years or so. And yet, despite that, everyone generally agrees on who's in Finals, with a few exceptions. I do think they'll be some surprises; always are in a preliminary contest so large!
Everyone's got BA, Blue Springs, Rosemount, Bixby, Jenks, Bell, OFT, Union, Coppell, Haltom, Camdenton, Lake Travis, Franklin, and then a variation of SFA/Grain Valley/Bentonville/Lincoln for the 14th slot. Oddly enough, no one seems to be trading out any of those first 13. I tend to agree, although a few surprises could be in store.
Let's take a look:
BA is the clear winner and caption sweeper here. No arguments from anyone.
Blue Springs seems to be off to a slower start, but is still aiming for a medal and will of course be in Finals. Rosemount has been in Indy or STL Finals for the past 10+ years (COME TO GN ALREADY!), and always in the top half of STL Finals when attended. Strong start to the year for them. Most predictions have these 3 groups medaling, and I can't find anything to disagree with here.
Jenks seem to be the biggest (or only) potential to pull a medal upset here, especially after doing so last year.
OFT is fresh off their first GN Finals appearance, Union has made Indy/STL/GN Finals countless times now, LD Bell found their way back into SATX Finals last year and was the first band out the previous two years, Coppell is in DFW Finals more often than they're out and is consistently close to SATX Finals, Bixby has 3 STL Finals appearances (would be 4 if they had attended last year), and Haltom made STL Finals from '14-'16, Atlanta Finals in '17, and was right out of SATX Finals last year. We can all argue about who places where among these groups or who makes it into the back half of Finals, but one thing's for certain: none of these six groups are getting left out of Finals.
Camdenton I'm not as sold on yet, only because their past success isn't there, but damn the evidence is sure there this year that they're going to be in Finals. Beating O'Fallon in BOA Iowa Finals. Placing 2nd at BA's contest Oct 5, .6 under Jenks and stealing music from them (even more insane when taking into account that music is by far & away Jenks' strong caption). They've got Cartwrightian design in their favor, AND there's a decent chance that will be able to snag the 5th spot in the slightly-less-loaded Prelims Panel #2. I'd say there's almost no chance they're left out of the Saturday night show.
Lake Travis is in the same boat in my mind --- the past success isn't there to be 100% sure, but they sure as hell seem to be off to an insanely good start this year, beating out groups like Round Rock & Hendrickson to land safely into Austin Finals, and then winning Vista Ridge's contest, 5 points ahead of last year's STL Finalists Dripping Springs & Weiss. I know they've been quietly building over the past few years, and seem to have finally exploded this year after a few seasons of putting the pieces together. The ONLY thing that could keep them out is a lower-scoring group of judges for the more-stacked Panel #1, in which they'll likely be 7th - 9th.
SFA is also fresh off of a newly-minted BOA Finals appearance in Houston, in which they too comfortably made Finals. They're still finding their way back into the BOA world, and their visual designs aren't nearly as modern as I'd like to see, but that didn't seem to hurt Weiss last year. I do think their less-complex visual packages make them slightly more vulnerable than Lake Travis going into this contest, and they could fall prey to a lower-scored Panel #1 as well, as they'll also probably place 7th-10th on that panel (it's worth noting Panel #1 could just as easily be scored in line with Panel #2, or higher). Either way, I think it's more likely than not that we see SFA on Saturday night.
Most years, I would say Franklin would be a sure bet, even easily in the top half here, but some director shifts created a little uncertainty about their usual prowess. There are some good videos of them up already this season, and they don't seemed to have skipped much of a beat. I personally believe Franklin will be safely into Finals, potentially even the top 5 on their slightly-weaker Panel #2, but I too am hesitant to call them a lock with the changes.
Those are my picks for the 14 Finalists. Seems like most are feeling the same groups. A few potential upsets to the aforementioned safe choices for Finals:
Bentonville & Grain Valley are the two groups most likely to do so. Despite program changes over the past few years, both seem to have kept going strong. Bentonville was a STL Finalist the last two years, and comfortably made their way back into GN Semis last season for the first time since the school split. They have a gorgeous Prelims slot; first big name to perform and the potential to throw up a high number that could carry them through the less-stacked Panel #2. GV is still fresh off their recent director change, but I had forgotten that Fossil Ridge (CO)'s long time director took over, and he built that program into the best in the state while he was there. A low angle video of them on YouTube looks like they're just as solid so far. They're in the more-stacked Panel #1 and will have to flat out beat groups like SFA/Lake Travis/Haltom if they want to play on Saturday night again this year.
Lincoln & Fort Zumwalt North also stand decent chances. Both were the first bands out of Finals last year (FZN for STL & Lincoln for Indy) and tenths out in each case. Both have made Finals at Indy/STL before, and both have had strong starts to the season. FZN plays on the weaker Panel #2, but is pretty much alone in their block outside of OFT & maybe Rockwood Summit. Lincoln is in the more stacked Panel #1, but has the benefit of playing in the same block as a ton of heavy hitters, and could look good if they have a great run back to back with Jenks.
Less likely to break in than the aforementioned four, but still reasonable:
Southlake Carroll & Trinity --- Two groups that could pull a Weiss and get in on fabulous Texas musical abilities alone. Southlake Carroll was the "first" group out of DFW Finals, and has only dabbled in BOA a bit before. This is their first Super Regional as far as I know, never even venturing to SA, although they've been a mainstay band in the DFW area for years. Trinity is the other school in Hurst-Euless-Bedford ISD (L.D. Bell being the other) and they're just now venturing into BOA as well. They were only a few spots and a few points out of Indy Finals last year, although they were pretty far from DFW Finals a few weeks ago. They are the standard dime-a-dozen mid-level, beautifully playing Texas band with exhaustively unimaginative GE & visual designs. But, two well-playing groups that can't be counted out completely, especially after Weiss's surprise Finals appearance last year.
Air Academy & Liberty --- The top 2 4A bands in CO, and both in the same excellent school district that encompasses the north suburbs of Colorado Springs. Air Academy has the history, Liberty is up & coming. Air Academy made STL Finals in 2013, 15, & 16 --- not long ago at all. Legacy last attended a BOA event at STL in 2017, and placed 11 bands out of Finals, but have improved a ton since then.
Long shots, but still good groups who stand to make a splash:
Nixa --- Surprise finalist at BOA Iowa, less than 1.5 behind Lincoln in both Prelims & Finals. After watching a video, maybe took on Cartwright as a designer? Seems to be doing well in local contests as well. BOA participant for the past few years that seems to be figuring out the show design aspect now.
Siegel --- Not too far out of GN Semis last year; 39th and less than 2.5 away from the cut. REALLY neat show last year!!
Desoto Central --- Always close(ish) to GN Semis (making it in on class in 2017) & STL Finals, and Mississippi's most consistent group. Always a pleasure to watch.
Bellevue West & Bellevue East & Millard North --- Nebraska's best bands. BW of course fell harrrrd last year, and seem to be in similar territories this year, unfortunately. BE & Millard North still tentatively approaching BOA.
Normal --- One of the combined bands (along with Lincoln-Way & Lawrence Township) with last year as their inaugural season.
Rockwood Summit --- Former STL finalist, not quite at the level they once were.
Kickapoo --- Many time STL Finalist; they haven't gotten worse, bands in the area have simply surpassed them.
Bentonville West, Bartlesville & Choctaw --- Three great groups that unfortunately live in the shadows of their heavy-hitting neighbors.
Lafayette & Lindbergh --- Two historically strong Missouri groups who are always a pleasure to watch at this regional.
Union City --- Easily the best Class A group in the field; they've been winning Class A titles at BOA events for over 10 years now!
Plus the usual smatterings of directionals : ) all in all, it legit reads like the strongest STL Regional I've ever seen!
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Post by Allohak on Oct 14, 2019 7:14:55 GMT -6
Air Academy & Liberty --- The top 2 4A bands in CO, and both in the same excellent school district that encompasses the north suburbs of Colorado Springs. Air Academy has the history, Liberty is up & coming. Air Academy made STL Finals in 2013, 15, & 16 --- not long ago at all. Legacy last attended a BOA event at STL in 2017, and placed 11 bands out of Finals, but have improved a ton since then. You're mixing Liberty and Legacy, my friend! Liberty is about 10 points back of AA, Loveland, Fossil Ridge, & Legacy on CBA sheets (see Legacy finals) And my money isn't with AA for the 4A championship this year
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Post by bigtrombone on Oct 14, 2019 9:05:33 GMT -6
Blue Springs seems to be off to a slower start, but is still aiming for a medal and will of course be in Finals. Rosemount has been in Indy or STL Finals for the past 10+ years (COME TO GN ALREADY!), and always in the top half of STL Finals when attended. Strong start to the year for them. Most predictions have these 3 groups medaling, and I can't find anything to disagree with here. I have some friends within the Rosemount community. The plan is for them to attend Grand Nationals next year.
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Post by northbanddad on Oct 14, 2019 12:49:02 GMT -6
Blue Springs seems to be off to a slower start, but is still aiming for a medal and will of course be in Finals. Rosemount has been in Indy or STL Finals for the past 10+ years (COME TO GN ALREADY!), and always in the top half of STL Finals when attended. Strong start to the year for them. Most predictions have these 3 groups medaling, and I can't find anything to disagree with here. I have some friends within the Rosemount community. The plan is for them to attend Grand Nationals next year. I can only trol Rosemount's 2020 public calendar on their website, there's definitely competition plans for November 2020. They don't usually compete in November, so I hope it pushes through. I love seeing their "sea of gold" in the stands. My gut says they want to see how they perform in this years STL Super Regionals before they make this jump. Their results from the last 2 years in Indy Super was not ideal, but with their new partnership with Wes Cartwright I'm hoping this gives them more confidence to make this "transcendence".
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Post by steved on Oct 14, 2019 12:50:12 GMT -6
Air Academy & Liberty --- The top 2 4A bands in CO, and both in the same excellent school district that encompasses the north suburbs of Colorado Springs. Air Academy has the history, Liberty is up & coming. Air Academy made STL Finals in 2013, 15, & 16 --- not long ago at all. Legacy last attended a BOA event at STL in 2017, and placed 11 bands out of Finals, but have improved a ton since then. You're mixing Liberty and Legacy, my friend! Liberty is about 10 points back of AA, Loveland, Fossil Ridge, & Legacy on CBA sheets (see Legacy finals) And my money isn't with AA for the 4A championship this year Having seen many of the bands in CO 4A/5A this year, Air Academy has an excellent shot at squeezing into a STACKED St. Louis Finals, and my money is on AA to take the Colorado 4A title again.
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Post by midwestmarcher on Oct 15, 2019 5:08:55 GMT -6
I believe if we see Rosemount take second place in St. Louis this year over Blue Springs (which is totally possible) I believe we will for sure see them perform at Grand Nats next year which will be Awesome. Great group!
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Post by Allohak on Oct 16, 2019 22:06:48 GMT -6
You're mixing Liberty and Legacy, my friend! Liberty is about 10 points back of AA, Loveland, Fossil Ridge, & Legacy on CBA sheets (see Legacy finals) And my money isn't with AA for the 4A championship this year Having seen many of the bands in CO 4A/5A this year, Air Academy has an excellent shot at squeezing into a STACKED St. Louis Finals, and my money is on AA to take the Colorado 4A title again. 4A Standings after Regionals: 1. Loveland 86.45 2. Air Academy 84.50 3. Centaurus 80.55 4. Liberty 80.10
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Post by cinnamonpromenade on Oct 16, 2019 22:41:15 GMT -6
Having seen many of the bands in CO 4A/5A this year, Air Academy has an excellent shot at squeezing into a STACKED St. Louis Finals, and my money is on AA to take the Colorado 4A title again. 4A Standings after Regionals: 1. Loveland 86.45 2. Air Academy 84.50 3. Centaurus 80.55 4. Liberty 80.10 Having only seen Loveland's show, I am not shocked by these results. Loveland's show is an extraordinary undertaking––I think it will fare very well at the St. George regional in a few weeks. That's not to say that Air Academy can't win 4A in Colorado and/or make finals in St. Louis, but they will also have to have a very, very powerful show to achieve either feat.
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Post by trumpette123 on Oct 17, 2019 12:20:50 GMT -6
I am excited to finally have a chance to watch BOA this year.. This might be one of the most interesting St. Louis show's we've had recently. Remember! At the end of the day everyone is working hard to produce these shows!
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Post by steved on Oct 17, 2019 14:17:49 GMT -6
4A Standings after Regionals: 1. Loveland 86.45 2. Air Academy 84.50 3. Centaurus 80.55 4. Liberty 80.10 Having only seen Loveland's show, I am not shocked by these results. Loveland's show is an extraordinary undertaking––I think it will fare very well at the St. George regional in a few weeks. That's not to say that Air Academy can't win 4A in Colorado and/or make finals in St. Louis, but they will also have to have a very, very powerful show to achieve either feat. Loveland and Air Academy are both very strong this year. While these regional scores are nice to set neighborhoods, they are different judge panels on different nights. Head to head Air Academy won early season and the two have not competed at the same show since. It will be interesting to see how Colorado shakes out this year. Bravo to both programs for continually pushing Colorado bands.
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Post by Jake W. on Oct 17, 2019 16:24:25 GMT -6
You're mixing Liberty and Legacy, my friend! Liberty is about 10 points back of AA, Loveland, Fossil Ridge, & Legacy on CBA sheets (see Legacy finals) And my money isn't with AA for the 4A championship this year Gah of course!!!! Liberty Legacy Legend are the three bands out here I always mix up. Thank you for the correction!!
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Post by marimba11 on Oct 17, 2019 16:31:49 GMT -6
Hasn’t rosemount usually been in the bottom half? I always thought even before Cartwright they should have placed higher.
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Post by Jake W. on Oct 17, 2019 16:35:32 GMT -6
Hasn’t rosemount usually been in the bottom half? I always thought even before Cartwright they should have placed higher. Bottom half of Indy finals the last two years; in the top half of STL Finals for 10 years before switching to Indy in '17 & '18.
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Post by Allohak on Oct 17, 2019 17:09:30 GMT -6
You're mixing Liberty and Legacy, my friend! Liberty is about 10 points back of AA, Loveland, Fossil Ridge, & Legacy on CBA sheets (see Legacy finals) And my money isn't with AA for the 4A championship this year Gah of course!!!! Liberty Legacy Legend are the three bands out here I always mix up. Thank you for the correction!! I did the same thing the other day when speaking with my director friend in the Denver area! Too many relevant schools with similar names around the country haha
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Post by asdfghjkl on Oct 17, 2019 19:04:54 GMT -6
My thoughts:
Panel 1 --------------- 1. Blue Springs 2. LD Bell 3. Rosemount 4. Jenks 5. Union 6. Haltom 7. Lake Travis ----------------- 8. Stephen F Austin 9. Grain Valley 10. Lincoln 11. Air Academy 12. Carroll 13. Bentonville West 14. Bellevue East
Panel 2 ---------------- 1. Broken Arrow 2. Camdenton 3. O'Fallon township 4. Bixby 5. Coppell 6. Franklin 7. Bentonville -------------------- 8. Trinity 9. Fort Zumwalt North 10. Bellevue West 11. Choctaw 12. Nixa 13. Rockwood Summit 14. Anybody Else
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Post by es203 on Oct 17, 2019 19:56:38 GMT -6
Don’t forget about Desoto Central... they might not make finals but they could make top 20 or higher.
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Post by bigbandguy on Oct 17, 2019 20:55:25 GMT -6
Kind of new to the forums but have been following BOA for awhile now, and was at the Cedar Falls regional. I think Rosemount and Blue Springs are going to have a good competition for 2nd place here, Rosemount won prelims against Blue Springs, and lost first in finals by .25 points. Neither school has a closer on the field. It’s going to be a tough competition there tomorrow/Saturday.
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Post by whosaidit on Oct 17, 2019 22:04:09 GMT -6
Panel 1- 1- Blue Springs 2- Jenks 3- Rosemount 4- LD Bell 5- Haltom Panel 2- 1- Broken Arrow 2- Coppell 3- Camdenton 4- O Fallon 5- Bixby Next 4 Union Lake Travis Stephen F Austin Franklin
Finals Predictions 1- Broken Arrow 2- Blue Springs 3- Jenks 4- Rosemount 5- LD Bell 6- Coppell 7- Camdenton 8- O Fallon 9 Haltom 10- Bixby 11- Union 12- Franklin 13- Lake Travis 14- Stephen F Austin
Broken Arrow Sweeps all captions and wins with a 94.35
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Post by srv1084 on Oct 17, 2019 22:22:07 GMT -6
My first predictions of the season.
1 - Broken Arrow H.S., OK 2 - Rosemount H.S., MN 3 - Blue Springs H.S., MO 4 - L.D. Bell H.S., TX 5 - O’Fallon Township H.S., IL 6 - Stephen F. Austin H.S., TX 7 - Jenks H.S., OK 8 - Haltom H.S., TX 9 - Coppell H.S., TX 10 - Camdenton H.S., MO 11 - Franklin H.S., TN 12 - Union H.S., OK 13 - Bixby H.S., OK 14 - Lake Travis H.S., TX
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Post by Allohak on Oct 17, 2019 23:06:10 GMT -6
My first predictions of the season. 1 - Broken Arrow H.S., OK 2 - Rosemount H.S., MN 3 - Blue Springs H.S., MO 4 - L.D. Bell H.S., TX 5 - O’Fallon Township H.S., IL 6 - Stephen F. Austin H.S., TX 7 - Jenks H.S., OK 8 - Haltom H.S., TX 9 - Coppell H.S., TX 10 - Camdenton H.S., MO 11 - Franklin H.S., TN 12 - Union H.S., OK 13 - Bixby H.S., OK 14 - Lake Travis H.S., TX That there is some bold predictin'
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Post by marimba11 on Oct 18, 2019 0:31:36 GMT -6
Is union really that rough this year that everyone is putting them that low? Lately I’m usually more of a Haltom fan vs. Bell but bell will probably score higher - I hope they improved their performance quality. I think o Fallon could be top 5, hated their show last year but I’m digging this year.
Going to be a tough one with lots of flipping placements.
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Post by whosaidit on Oct 18, 2019 2:40:29 GMT -6
Is union really that rough this year that everyone is putting them that low? Lately I’m usually more of a Haltom fan vs. Bell but bell will probably score higher - I hope they improved their performance quality. I think o Fallon could be top 5, hated their show last year but I’m digging this year. Going to be a tough one with lots of flipping placements. I wouldn’t say Union is rough, they’ve just sort of stayed where they were a few years ago and everyone else has stepped up. Union is still super good.
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Post by northbanddad on Oct 18, 2019 10:09:48 GMT -6
Is there still an MFA Live blog? I don't see any.
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Post by marimba11 on Oct 18, 2019 10:35:27 GMT -6
Watching on FloMarching? The Show Day Podcast St Louis Friday Viewing Guide is here! 1drv.ms/x/s!AvcPplz3zo9w7k-V-HRp0MkHDN8M I don't think your link is working.
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Post by northbanddad on Oct 18, 2019 10:39:17 GMT -6
That's a great performance by Bentonville. Thanks for giving us the first great show of the competition. Good sound and visuals, unfortunately this is going to be tough trek to get to Finals this year. Too many great bands in this years competition. But they are definitely in the next 10 in St. Louis this year.
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Post by macwinlin on Oct 18, 2019 10:47:16 GMT -6
Is there still an MFA Live blog? I don't see any. Not this year.
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Post by Jake W. on Oct 18, 2019 10:49:00 GMT -6
I thought Bentonville gave a strong performance today and made the case that they have a fighting shot at Finals! It will be close, but they certainly proved it's within their reach to play again tomorrow night.
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