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Post by OldSchoolTrumpet on Nov 9, 2021 18:46:07 GMT -6
I can't believe I'm about to say this, but get off my ledge. It's not that bad. At least not yet. If they are still struggling this way (or worse) next year then we'll talk. But right now this may just be an transitional year for the Spartan Alliance. Warfield is a young guy with a solid background in the marching arts. He wants to win. This isn't Lake Central. I’m glad to here that!! Castle kind of fell apart when Dean left the first time. Hoping they can keep things going as well. As an FYI regarding Warfield, he was at Lawrence Central when they won GN's in 2004. He was a marching member of the Bluecoats for three years, and was a brass instructor for both Bluecoats and Santa Clara Vanguard. He was also an assistant at Homestead for three years '17--19 seasons) under Wadkins after Barber left. He screams Marching Band. I feel like he's a guy who surely wants to put Homestead on the map again.
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Post by elsie on Nov 9, 2021 18:47:23 GMT -6
I’m glad to here that!! Castle kind of fell apart when Dean left the first time. Hoping they can keep things going as well. As an FYI regarding Warfield, he was at Lawrence Central when they won GN's in 2004. He was a marching member of the Bluecoats for three years, and was a brass instructor for both Bluecoats and Santa Clara Vanguard. He was also an assistant at Homestead for three years '17--19 seasons) under Wadkins after Barber left. He screams Marching Band. I feel like he's a guy who surely wants to put Homestead on the map again. I love that guy
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Post by banddad85 on Nov 9, 2021 18:49:34 GMT -6
Vista Ridge will miss national finals. I can guarantee you. What about their program relative to the other bands makes you think they'll be hard-pressed to make the Top 12? Sure, it's definitely possible, but there are a ton of bands that could make/miss finals.
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Post by angelee on Nov 9, 2021 18:49:54 GMT -6
Same here 🥺 I would have a hard time believing Homestead’s program will tank like Lake Central, but all good things eventually come to an end. With band, almost always after long time directors leave/retire. I can't believe I'm about to say this, but get off my ledge. It's not that bad. At least not yet. If they are still struggling this way (or worse) next year then we'll talk. But right now this may just be an transitional year for the Spartan Alliance. Warfield is a young guy with a solid background in the marching arts. He wants to win. This isn't Lake Central. 100% right here. He’s young and talented and has access to some of the most creative minds in the industry right now. It’s been a rough transition as any school would have with a 35 year history rich in tradition. Changes without some growing pains isn’t growth. I’m by no means an insider, but I teach in the school. The former directors have nothing but praise for Warfield all over social media. They stand by him and the decisions he’s making. I think that is huge for a program to continue to get community support and student buy-in. And the kids that stuck with him through last year and this, they understand they are bringing in a new era. Hopefully one that continues to grow and progress, but just as in the early years of homestead and their 9th place finishes, so ushers in a new time now. I’m not counting them out either. Time will tell. Thanks for coming to my Ted Talk.
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Post by angelee on Nov 9, 2021 18:50:49 GMT -6
I’m glad to here that!! Castle kind of fell apart when Dean left the first time. Hoping they can keep things going as well. As an FYI regarding Warfield, he was at Lawrence Central when they won GN's in 2004. He was a marching member of the Bluecoats for three years, and was a brass instructor for both Bluecoats and Santa Clara Vanguard. He was also an assistant at Homestead for three years '17--19 seasons) under Wadkins after Barber left. He screams Marching Band. I feel like he's a guy who surely wants to put Homestead on the map again. He’s now a co-brass caption head for the Mandarins ✅.
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Post by supersound on Nov 9, 2021 18:52:17 GMT -6
An upside to Round Rock missing finals is those kids got some extra rehearsal time and time to catch up on their school assignments.
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Post by marchingmaniac on Nov 9, 2021 18:54:41 GMT -6
Vista Ridge will miss national finals. I can guarantee you. What about their program relative to the other bands makes you think they'll be hard-pressed to make the Top 12? Sure, it's definitely possible, but there are a ton of bands that could make/miss finals. That user's a troll who's been talking smack about Vista Ridge all season. I'd just disregard them at this point.
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Post by ilikeguard on Nov 9, 2021 18:57:02 GMT -6
Good luck to Blue Springs, Nixa, Neosho, Mark Twain, and Hollister, who are all representing Missouri this weekend! Blue Springs has been phenomenal about paving the way for more Missouri bands to get involved in some big-scale BOA stuff. I'm not confident that we'll see our third MO band in semis this year, but I know it's on the horizon very, very soon. With more bands extending their season past St. Louis now (Camdenton and Hollister have even proven that success at San Antonio is possible), I really feel that we'll start to see consistent Missouri attendance here. I strongly believe that Grain Valley, Nixa, Blue Springs South, Sullivan, and maybe Hollister have what it takes to enjoy a second performance in the next decade and then it won't be anything historical to see a MO band in semis. Have a fantastic show this weekend, Missouri bands!
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Post by ilikeguard on Nov 9, 2021 19:01:24 GMT -6
Good luck to Blue Springs, Nixa, Neosho, Mark Twain, and Hollister, who are all representing Missouri this weekend! Blue Springs has been phenomenal about paving the way for more Missouri bands to get involved in some big-scale BOA stuff. I'm not confident that we'll see our third MO band in semis this year, but I know it's on the horizon very, very soon. With more bands extending their season past St. Louis now (Camdenton and Hollister have even proven that success at San Antonio is possible), I really feel that we'll start to see consistent Missouri attendance here. I strongly believe that Grain Valley, Nixa, Blue Springs South, Sullivan, and maybe Hollister have what it takes to enjoy a second performance in the next decade and then it won't be anything historical to see a MO band in semis. Have a fantastic show this weekend, Missouri bands! I'm feeling bold. Grain Valley or Camdenton WILL perform three times in the next decade. And I'm not one for predictions usually
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Post by marchingmaniac on Nov 9, 2021 19:23:17 GMT -6
With 6A UIL State completed I'm going to take a shot at my final predictions:
1. Broken Arrow (M/V) 2. Flower Mound (GE) 3. Avon 4. Claudia Taylor Johnson 5. Carmel 6. The Woodlands 7. Marcus 8. Ronald Reagan 9. William Mason 10. Vista Ridge 11. Blue Springs 12. Dobyns-Bennett
Broken Arrow is the band to beat for me; they are absolutely phenomenal and have what I think is the most cohesive show in the country. You'll be enthralled by their perfomance and before you know it they're already at the end of the closer.
Flower Mound didn't get the result they wanted at UIL State, but looking at the recaps it was their percussion scores that put a big dent in their ordinals. There are still some minor intonation issues for them to fix but I think they have the strongest show design in the country this year. They'll be an instant crowd favorite and a contender to win the Eagle.
I can see any of 3-5 taking the bronze medal, but I'll roll with Avon for now given their top 3 streak. I really enjoy their show (LOVE that Fire of Eternal Glory closer) and think they're peaking at the right time.
Claudia Taylor Johnson didn't have the best showing at UIL State, but I'm not too worried about them. They had excellent GE scores at San Antonio and will fare better in a BOA setting. If they can reign in their music intonation issues and prevent any stickouts, I think they could be a dark horse to win the Eagle (I hope they do, they have my favorite show this year).
I'm never a big fan of Carmel shows, but I can't deny their extremely high execution levels. They are still a contender to win it all.
The Woodlands will be the funnest show here. They do such a great job with the cabaret theme and have INCREDIBLE soloists. A definite dark horse for a medal.
Marcus had an excellent showing at UIL State, picking up the bronze medal. They aren't typical Texas loud but rather sound impeccably clean, like a wind symphony on the move. Very clean visually too. Not the strongest show design from them, but I think they still have a shot at the top half.
Ronald Reagan's show suffers from being too similar to Secret World, but it's still a great production and they'll be a lock for finals. With their high visual execution, they still have a shot at the top half and maybe potentially a medal, but they're out of Eagle contention for me.
I like the Top Gun theme of William Mason's show this year. It's not the most interesting show to me but I think they do a great job pulling it off. Great sounds off them too. Glad to see they're still going strong!
Vista Ridge has been getting flak all season and frankly I think it's ridiculous. No, Vorca Rhe isn't as polished as Lost and Found or Turning the Tables, but they still do a great job with musical performance. Likely will finish closer to the bottom of finals, but still another great season for them.
I feel Blue Springs has been a bit overlooked this season. Not many people are talking about them, but I think they're still a good shout to make finals. They have a great show that, while maybe a bit too dependent on soloists and small ensembles, comes together very well.
I could see about ten different bands in this last spot. It's going to be super competitive, but I'll go with Dobyns-Bennett. I haven't gotten a chance to see them, but I've only heard great things, and taking a caption off Tarpon at Johnson City's no small feat.
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Post by ilikeguard on Nov 9, 2021 19:25:42 GMT -6
Good luck to Blue Springs, Nixa, Neosho, Mark Twain, and Hollister, who are all representing Missouri this weekend! Blue Springs has been phenomenal about paving the way for more Missouri bands to get involved in some big-scale BOA stuff. I'm not confident that we'll see our third MO band in semis this year, but I know it's on the horizon very, very soon. With more bands extending their season past St. Louis now (Camdenton and Hollister have even proven that success at San Antonio is possible), I really feel that we'll start to see consistent Missouri attendance here. I strongly believe that Grain Valley, Nixa, Blue Springs South, Sullivan, and maybe Hollister have what it takes to enjoy a second performance in the next decade and then it won't be anything historical to see a MO band in semis. Have a fantastic show this weekend, Missouri bands! Additionally, Nixa, Mark Twain, and Hollister are all first-time attendees, as far back as I've looked. Neosho attended in 2019 and Blue Springs is a fairly consistent attendee, although they were notably absent in 2019 (I'm assuming due to a conflict with them performing at the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade that year). Previously, Rockwood Summit is a repeat attendee, but they have been absent since 2018. Mark Twain's director, Doug Schaffer, attended with the Laquey band in 2018, but as of now the Laquey Marching Band no longer exists. Hollister attended San Antonio in 2019 to class-relative success, medaling in A there (wearing the VRHS 2018 uniforms, no less). An extra-special round of good luck to these first-timers!
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Post by hewhowaits on Nov 9, 2021 19:37:45 GMT -6
Vista Ridge will miss national finals. I can guarantee you. Vista Ridge will medal. I can guarantee you. I believe you are both wrong, but I cannot guarantee anything.
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Post by hewhowaits on Nov 9, 2021 19:39:27 GMT -6
HOSTRAUSER'S GRAND NATIONALS PREDICTIONS, PART II - SEMIFINALSHere is the simulated Semifinals "Quick Recap" CLASS A 1. Collinsville H.S., OK 2. Murray H.S., KY 3. Estill County H.S., KY Music: Collinsville H.S., OK Visual: Murray H.S., KY Effect: Collinsville H.S., OK As much as I love a surprise, I will give everyone on this thread $100 if this happens. As the originator of the thread, I believe I am entitled to a double share should this happen.
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Post by hewhowaits on Nov 9, 2021 19:41:23 GMT -6
Fairly certain Collinsville, Ok won't sneak in ahead of BoCo. Also not sold Norton gets in ahead of Archbishop Alter or Beechwood. Thinking class A will be Archbishop Alter, Estill County, Bourbon County and Murray. I could definitely see Archbishop Alter sneaking in over Beechwood, but I’m of the firm belief that we will see all 4 Class A semi-finalists represent Kentucky. Archbishop Alter finishing ahead of Beechwood wouldn't exactly be "sneaking in" in recent years. They have been consistently solid the last several years.
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Post by hewhowaits on Nov 9, 2021 19:43:41 GMT -6
Good luck to Blue Springs, Nixa, Neosho, Mark Twain, and Hollister, who are all representing Missouri this weekend! Blue Springs has been phenomenal about paving the way for more Missouri bands to get involved in some big-scale BOA stuff. I'm not confident that we'll see our third MO band in semis this year, but I know it's on the horizon very, very soon. With more bands extending their season past St. Louis now (Camdenton and Hollister have even proven that success at San Antonio is possible), I really feel that we'll start to see consistent Missouri attendance here. I strongly believe that Grain Valley, Nixa, Blue Springs South, Sullivan, and maybe Hollister have what it takes to enjoy a second performance in the next decade and then it won't be anything historical to see a MO band in semis. Have a fantastic show this weekend, Missouri bands! I'm feeling bold. Grain Valley or Camdenton WILL perform three times in the next decade. And I'm not one for predictions usually So you're predicting that one of those schools will attend GN thrice in the 2020s?
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Post by ilikeguard on Nov 9, 2021 19:47:43 GMT -6
I'm feeling bold. Grain Valley or Camdenton WILL perform three times in the next decade. And I'm not one for predictions usually So you're predicting that one of those schools will attend GN thrice in the 2020s? Haha wording is important! Yes, I am. And I'm predicting that at least one of those years either one of those bands will be the class rep for AA. That is, unless Tarpon Springs does away with their rotation and attends every single year!
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Post by Allohak on Nov 9, 2021 19:48:19 GMT -6
I'm feeling bold. Grain Valley or Camdenton WILL perform three times in the next decade. And I'm not one for predictions usually So you're predicting that one of those schools will attend GN thrice in the 2020s? I happen to agree with ilikeguard - I could see one of those groups winning AA and getting a class champion exhibition performance in the coming years
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Post by N.E. Brigand on Nov 9, 2021 19:50:45 GMT -6
As much as I love a surprise, I will give everyone on this thread $100 if this happens. Fairly certain Collinsville, Ok won't sneak in ahead of BoCo. Also not sold Norton gets in ahead of Archbishop Alter or Beechwood.Thinking class A will be Archbishop Alter, Estill County, Bourbon County and Murray. Having seen Norton in person four times this year (most recently just ten days ago), I agree.
But I wouldn't mind being wrong about that. I did get to tell their director after their Akron performance in September that I thought they were underscored there.
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Post by trumpette123 on Nov 9, 2021 19:55:13 GMT -6
So you're predicting that one of those schools will attend GN thrice in the 2020s? I happen to agree with ilikeguard - I could see one of those groups winning AA and getting a class champion exhibition performance in the coming years I would LOVE to see GV come to Nationals, I think they had a bit of a rough transition (a lot of kids have trouble with transitions like this, not agreeing, not liking, unwilling to change, which is a normal reaction.) Their director is amazingly Travis Barzee went to Blue Springs, marched Cavies and got a medal with BD (I think.) He worked with blue Springs while getting his degree. I was bummed to see the district didn’t higher him after he graduated. But I’m glad he went off in his own direction to do his owe thing. Excited to see where the program goes in the next couple years.
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Post by yayband914 on Nov 9, 2021 19:56:42 GMT -6
I could definitely see Archbishop Alter sneaking in over Beechwood, but I’m of the firm belief that we will see all 4 Class A semi-finalists represent Kentucky. Archbishop Alter finishing ahead of Beechwood wouldn't exactly be "sneaking in" in recent years. They have been consistently solid the last several years. Quick/poor choice in phrasing. They seem to have had an even more solid season than usual this year.
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Post by ilikeguard on Nov 9, 2021 20:07:19 GMT -6
I happen to agree with ilikeguard - I could see one of those groups winning AA and getting a class champion exhibition performance in the coming years I would LOVE to see GV come to Nationals, I think they had a bit of a rough transition (a lot of kids have trouble with transitions like this, not agreeing, not liking, unwilling to change, which is a normal reaction.) Their director is amazingly Travis Barzee went to Blue Springs, marched Cavies and got a medal with BD (I think.) He worked with blue Springs while getting his degree. I was bummed to see the district didn’t higher him after he graduated. But I’m glad he went off in his own direction to do his owe thing. Excited to see where the program goes in the next couple years. I had the pleasure of talking to a GV freshman dad at two different events this season and it sounds like the entire organization is very happy with him. Grain Valley and Camdenton are both in excellent hands with their new directors. Side note- I think the concentration of Blue Springs people working with Grain Valley and Broken Arrow people working with Camdenton is really interesting and definitely shows in the products they put out on the field. They're like mini/JV versions of some of the best bands in the nation (and considering the Top 32 for the past 3-4 years they're some of the best in their own right). It would be really nice to see both of them at GN the same year.
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Post by midwamericanarts on Nov 9, 2021 20:09:45 GMT -6
HOSTRAUSER'S GRAND NATIONALS PREDICTIONS, PART II - SEMIFINALSHere is the simulated Semifinals "Quick Recap" CLASS A 1. Collinsville H.S., OK 2. Murray H.S., KY 3. Estill County H.S., KY Music: Collinsville H.S., OK Visual: Murray H.S., KY Effect: Collinsville H.S., OK CLASS AA 1. Marian Catholic H.S., IL 2. Morton H.S., IL 3. Miamisburg H.S., OH Music: Morton H.S., IL Visual: Morton H.S., IL Effect: Marian Catholic H.S., IL CLASS AAA 1. Blue Springs H.S., MO 2. Castle H.S., IN 3. Dobyns-Bennett H.S., TN Music: Dobyns-Bennett H.S., TN Visual: Blue Springs H.S., MO Effect: Blue Springs H.S., MO CLASS AAAA 1. Carmel H.S., IN 2. Broken Arrow H.S., OK 3. Claudia Taylor Johnson H.S., TX Music: Broken Arrow H.S., OK Visual: Broken Arrow H.S., OK Effect: Carmel H.S., IN Here are the twelve finalist bands, announced in random order: Carmel H.S., IN Avon H.S., IN Broken Arrow H.S., OK Blue Springs H.S., MO Ronald Reagan H.S., TX William Mason H.S., OH The Woodlands H.S., TX Flower Mound H.S., TX Claudia Taylor Johnson H.S., TX Marcus H.S., TX Castle H.S., IN Vista Ridge H.S., TX The sims discuss the results. Castle makes it into Finals, but Dobyns-Bennett, Homestead, O'Fallon, and Wando are out. The Finals schedule is released: 7:45 PM Collinsville H.S., OK (Class A Champion exhibition) 8:00 PM Vista Ridge H.S, TX 8:15 PM Blue Springs H.S., MO 8:30 PM William Mason H.S., OH 8:45 PM Castle H.S., IN 9:00 PM The Woodlands H.S., TX 9:15 PM Ronald Reagan H.S., TX 9:30 PM Marcus H.S., TX 9:45 PM Claudia Taylor Johnson H.S., TX 10:00 PM Carmel H.S., IN 10:15 PM Flower Mound H.S., TX 10:30 PM Avon H.S., IN 10:45 PM Broken Arrow H.S., OK 11:00 PM Marian Catholic H.S., IL (Class AA Champion exhibition) The simulated crowd eagerly awaits the simulated finals... As a note, the schedule states if there are 2 class champion exhibitions, they will be at will be at 7:30 and 7:45 Just curious… Carmel beats Avon by .2 3 weeks ago. Avon beats Carmel by .4 two weeks ago. Avon beats Carmel by .85 last week. Is your algorithm valuing the BOA win for Carmel by lots more than the last 2 wins by Avon? Is it based off of past year finishes? Curious of what is happening, here. #Itrustthealgorithm
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Post by hostrauser on Nov 9, 2021 20:18:59 GMT -6
Fairly certain Collinsville, Ok won't sneak in ahead of BoCo. Also not sold Norton gets in ahead of Archbishop Alter or Beechwood. Thinking class A will be Archbishop Alter, Estill County, Bourbon County and Murray. I could definitely see Archbishop Alter sneaking in over Beechwood, but I’m of the firm belief that we will see all 4 Class A semi-finalists represent Kentucky. I can very easily see Alter and Bourbon bumping out Collinsville and Norton. They were all very close in the simulation. Gotta say, though, the algorithm is really down HARD on Beechwood. I mean, they were TEN POINTS behind Bourbon County at BOA Toledo. That's a big gap to cover in a month. But even if I completely throw out Beechwood's scores from BOA Toledo and use ONLY their KMEA scores, they still come in as only the 7th rated Class A band. Nothing's impossible. But personally I will be surprised if Beechwood beats any of the other big Class A Kentucky bands (Bourbon, Estill, Murray), and I expect AT LEAST one non-KY Class A band to beat them in Prelims, too.
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Post by hostrauser on Nov 9, 2021 20:23:21 GMT -6
As a note, the schedule states if there are 2 class champion exhibitions, they will be at will be at 7:30 and 7:45 Just curious… Carmel beats Avon by .2 3 weeks ago. Avon beats Carmel by .4 two weeks ago. Avon beats Carmel by .85 last week. Is your algorithm valuing the BOA win for Carmel by lots more than the last 2 wins by Avon? Is it based off of past year finishes? Curious of what is happening, here. #Itrustthealgorithm Carmel beat Avon by 0.20 AND 0.45 at BOA Indy. ISSMA/UIL results are not included in the algorithm. And the addition of a small performance variable into the predictions resulted in Carmel beating Avon all three GN shows. They were all very close, though. Neither Avon nor Carmel finished out of the Top 4 overall in Prelims, Semis, or Finals.
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Post by OldSchoolTrumpet on Nov 9, 2021 20:26:23 GMT -6
HOSTRAUSER'S GRAND NATIONALS PREDICTIONS, PART II - SEMIFINALSHere is the simulated Semifinals "Quick Recap" CLASS A 1. Collinsville H.S., OK 2. Murray H.S., KY 3. Estill County H.S., KY Music: Collinsville H.S., OK Visual: Murray H.S., KY Effect: Collinsville H.S., OK As much as I love a surprise, I will give everyone on this thread $100 if this happens. I feel like I have a renewed interest in the class A outcome.
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Post by yayband914 on Nov 9, 2021 20:43:35 GMT -6
As much as I love a surprise, I will give everyone on this thread $100 if this happens. I feel like I have a renewed interest in the class A outcome. Again. Monopoly money. 😉
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Post by marimba11 on Nov 9, 2021 21:14:45 GMT -6
I think The Woodlands is a definitely a dark horse for a medal. There just isn’t much to fault
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Post by Allohak on Nov 9, 2021 21:17:24 GMT -6
I think The Woodlands is a definitely a dark horse for a medal. There just isn’t much to fault If The Woodlands gets rewarded for what they're doing, they win Unfortunately, it's just so drastically different from what the rest are doing, that they aren't likely to get appropriately rewarded. I would absolutely love to get to see the show 4 times this weekend.
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Post by ilikeguard on Nov 9, 2021 21:18:48 GMT -6
I think The Woodlands is a definitely a dark horse for a medal. There just isn’t much to fault I agree but I just don’t know who would move out of the way!! I can’t see BA lower than second and any one of Carmel, Avon, CTJ, and FloMo in 5th or lower hurts my brain to think about. Can’t we just name them ALL Grand Champion?? Maybe Kevin can lay a few eggs
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Post by treblemaker2 on Nov 9, 2021 21:54:23 GMT -6
Vista Ridge will miss national finals. I can guarantee you. I am not sure why you are so down on Vista. I have seen them perform several times this year and they are quite a strong group. Those students give it their all out on the field, are supportive of other’s efforts, and are fine musicians. Their show is very different and ambitious, and I appreciate the creativity behind the design. They have improved tons the past few years and can hang in there just fine. Perhaps you might consider the “ Thumper rule” before you post negative remarks about any group-“if you can’t say something nice, then don’t say anything at all!” Students from any of these bands may be reading these forums, and every one of them deserves to have their hard work recognized and encouraged. I fully plan to be rooting for and enjoying Vorca Rhe 3 more times at Grand Nats along with so many other fabulous bands!
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