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Post by marimba11 on May 24, 2022 12:06:41 GMT -6
Hmm... I don't buy it. But the is no way to prove or disprove The fact that Texas middle school bands sweep Midwest most years could be evidence to the point. Texas high school bands easily have more placements at Midwest than any other state. Texas middle schools have more band placements than every other state combined. I’m actually sure that you could double the number of placements from the other 49 states and that would still be true. Not only did Texas middle schools sweep wind band placements for this December—they swept every single middle school performance category. This was not the first year that has happened, either. No other state is doing what Texas middle schools at full scale do in musical performance in all instrumental avenues. Period. Consider that every Texas high school has about 2-3 middle schools feeding them, and how many extremely strong marching and concert programs there are in the state, it doesn’t take long to get to 30. The 30th best program probably still feeds a Top 10 5A or 6A finalist, and perhaps a top 5. And I agree 100% with everything you said. But I would just imagine the Tarpon Springs middle school doesn't mess around and clearly can produce great musicians.
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Post by Jake W. on May 24, 2022 12:59:01 GMT -6
Back to Wando, anyone know what their long term goals are? I feel like Lambert only had a few seasons under his belt before Covid, so it's been difficult to tell what direction he wants to take the program. I'd love to see them attend GN more regularly; I understand it's a long trip, but the school does draw from some of the wealthiest areas in the state, and it's only a 2 hour-or-so further drive than Owasso/Union/BA are from Indy, all of whom have attended multiple seasons in a row at various points. It would be nice to see them attend this year --- there's a giant bubble for sure, but I think most of us would place their Finalist chances on the upper end of that bubble. They have yet to attend two years in a row, but they also don't seem to have established a solid GN attendance pattern, other than an every-other-year-ish skeleton pre-Covid, so who knows.
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Post by marimba11 on May 24, 2022 13:42:47 GMT -6
Back to Wando, anyone know what their long term goals are? I feel like Lambert only had a few seasons under his belt before Covid, so it's been difficult to tell what direction he wants to take the program. I'd love to see them attend GN more regularly; I understand it's a long trip, but the school does draw from some of the wealthiest areas in the state, and it's only a 2 hour-or-so further drive than Owasso/Union/BA are from Indy, all of whom have attended multiple seasons in a row at various points. It would be nice to see them attend this year --- there's a giant bubble for sure, but I think most of us would place their Finalist chances on the upper end of that bubble. They have yet to attend two years in a row, but they also don't seem to have established a solid GN attendance pattern, other than an every-other-year-ish skeleton pre-Covid, so who knows. While I did not attend Wando, I have watched the program upclose and from a distance over the last decade or so pretty closely. They went 09,11, and then the year 13, Scott Rush retired and they skipped. Then when Bobby came they started 14, 16, 18. Of course 2020 happened AND a school split. Yes that school is smallish (1500) but enough to make a dent I am sure. Although the neighborhoods in MP with most high school age kids are probably in North MP. Park West, Brickyard, Carolina Park, Whitehall Terrace ect. Wando I think is no. 2 largest high school in the state I believe behind Dorman only. Maybe Summerville. When the new school split though they lost none of their staff except color guard so I think that really helped. Wando is really geographically challenged with any regional or major show being at least an overnight. They definitely have the upper hand still I hope they go more often but that hasn't been the case
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Post by es203 on May 24, 2022 13:53:16 GMT -6
Back to Wando, anyone know what their long term goals are? I feel like Lambert only had a few seasons under his belt before Covid, so it's been difficult to tell what direction he wants to take the program. I'd love to see them attend GN more regularly; I understand it's a long trip, but the school does draw from some of the wealthiest areas in the state, and it's only a 2 hour-or-so further drive than Owasso/Union/BA are from Indy, all of whom have attended multiple seasons in a row at various points. It would be nice to see them attend this year --- there's a giant bubble for sure, but I think most of us would place their Finalist chances on the upper end of that bubble. They have yet to attend two years in a row, but they also don't seem to have established a solid GN attendance pattern, other than an every-other-year-ish skeleton pre-Covid, so who knows. While I did not attend Wando, I have watched the program upclose and from a distance over the last decade or so pretty closely. They went 09,11, and then the year 13, Scott Rush retired and they skipped. Then when Bobby came they started 14, 16, 18. Of course 2020 happened AND a school split. Yes that school is smallish (1500) but enough to make a dent I am sure. Although the neighborhoods in MP with most high school age kids are probably in North MP. Park West, Brickyard, Carolina Park, Whitehall Terrace ect. Wando I think is no. 2 largest high school in the state I believe behind Dorman only. Maybe Summerville. When the new school split though they lost none of their staff except color guard so I think that really helped. Wando is really geographically challenged with any regional or major show being at least an overnight. They definitely have the upper hand still I hope they go more often but that hasn't been the case I saw the new SCBDA numbers, and Wando is indeed #3 behind Dorman and Summerville. Wando is at about 2900 kids, and Summerville is over 3200. Didn't realize they were that big.
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Post by marimba11 on May 24, 2022 14:07:28 GMT -6
While I did not attend Wando, I have watched the program upclose and from a distance over the last decade or so pretty closely. They went 09,11, and then the year 13, Scott Rush retired and they skipped. Then when Bobby came they started 14, 16, 18. Of course 2020 happened AND a school split. Yes that school is smallish (1500) but enough to make a dent I am sure. Although the neighborhoods in MP with most high school age kids are probably in North MP. Park West, Brickyard, Carolina Park, Whitehall Terrace ect. Wando I think is no. 2 largest high school in the state I believe behind Dorman only. Maybe Summerville. When the new school split though they lost none of their staff except color guard so I think that really helped. Wando is really geographically challenged with any regional or major show being at least an overnight. They definitely have the upper hand still I hope they go more often but that hasn't been the case I saw the new SCBDA numbers, and Wando is indeed #3 behind Dorman and Summerville. Wando is at about 2900 kids, and Summerville is over 3200. Didn't realize they were that big. Oh okay, makes sense! Numbers wise I think the current size of Wando is probably here to stay. Gone are the days of 250 plus probably. I know that last year seniors could still stay at Wando even if zoned for Lucy, that would end this upcoming season. I know all this weird information because I used to live in MP and work with people who had kids at Wando lol
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Post by mscarst on May 24, 2022 20:02:22 GMT -6
The fact that Texas middle school bands sweep Midwest most years could be evidence to the point. Texas high school bands easily have more placements at Midwest than any other state. Texas middle schools have more band placements than every other state combined. I’m actually sure that you could double the number of placements from the other 49 states and that would still be true. Not only did Texas middle schools sweep wind band placements for this December—they swept every single middle school performance category. This was not the first year that has happened, either. No other state is doing what Texas middle schools at full scale do in musical performance in all instrumental avenues. Period. Consider that every Texas high school has about 2-3 middle schools feeding them, and how many extremely strong marching and concert programs there are in the state, it doesn’t take long to get to 30. The 30th best program probably still feeds a Top 10 5A or 6A finalist, and perhaps a top 5. And I agree 100% with everything you said. But I would just imagine the Tarpon Springs middle school doesn't mess around and clearly can produce great musicians. As someone who went to Tarpon High shortly after the conservatory started, I was a terrible middle school player and got in without an audition or anything like that. At least as of 2016 they weren't auditioning for the magnet, it was just kids who wanted to go there (can't speak for after that as that was when my sibling entered the program). I've been to way more middle and high school band concerts in Pinellas, and Tarpon Middle has never ever been a reliable middle school feeder. Band director turnover like crazy, and never a strong structure. Where the feeder program has worked is the guard. That's been significant for how the band itself worked. But not the instrumental side, which is really unfortunate.
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Post by marimba11 on May 24, 2022 21:58:00 GMT -6
And I agree 100% with everything you said. But I would just imagine the Tarpon Springs middle school doesn't mess around and clearly can produce great musicians. As someone who went to Tarpon High shortly after the conservatory started, I was a terrible middle school player and got in without an audition or anything like that. At least as of 2016 they weren't auditioning for the magnet, it was just kids who wanted to go there (can't speak for after that as that was when my sibling entered the program). I've been to way more middle and high school band concerts in Pinellas, and Tarpon Middle has never ever been a reliable middle school feeder. Band director turnover like crazy, and never a strong structure. Where the feeder program has worked is the guard. That's been significant for how the band itself worked. But not the instrumental side, which is really unfortunate. Wow, that makes what they do at the high school level seem even more of an accomplishment. Glad you could set the record straight, I really just assumed.
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Post by yayband914 on May 25, 2022 12:18:57 GMT -6
Confirmed:
Murphysboro H.S., IL (band calendar)
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Post by Jake W. on May 25, 2022 14:51:03 GMT -6
Unless Blue Springs has released a partial schedule (it appears to be pretty comprehensive), they’ve got both St Louis & Indy, but no GN, on the schedule.
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Post by saturdaynightlights on May 25, 2022 15:01:16 GMT -6
Unless Blue Springs has released a partial schedule (it appears to be pretty comprehensive), they’ve got both St Louis & Indy, but no GN, on the schedule. Makes sense, but that's too bad. More room for potential new faces in finals though.
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Post by Marching Observer on May 25, 2022 21:04:04 GMT -6
So I've decided it's close enough for me to start giving my unofficial way to early and it's JUST FOR FUN predictions. Finalists in alpha order: Avon Broken Arrow Carmel Carroll (TX) Castle Fishers Lincoln-Way O'Fallon Prosper Seven Lakes Tarpon Springs William Mason Bubbleists in no order: Homestead Mustang American Fork M.G. Johnson Marian Catholic Rosemount Brownsburg Centerville I may have missed something obvious but that's how mine stands atm.
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Post by marimba11 on May 25, 2022 21:23:18 GMT -6
So I've decided it's close enough for me to start giving my unofficial way to early and it's JUST FOR FUN predictions. Finalists in alpha order: Avon Broken Arrow Carmel Carroll (TX) Castle Fishers Lincoln-Way O'Fallon Prosper Seven Lakes Tarpon Springs William Mason Bubbleists in no order: Homestead Mustang American Fork M.G. Johnson Marian Catholic Rosemount Brownsburg Centerville I may have missed something obvious but that's how mine stands atm. I would love to see American Fork make finals. Their shows these past few years since attending GN in 2018 have been really engaging, entertaining, and just good quality all around. Especially the captain show last year... loved it! Also would like Homestead to make finals again, Fishers too! But both have their work cut out for them in the music department. I think this will also be a pretty telling year for Byrnes. Another band with really solid performances the past few years but they have just been outside the bubble enough to really be seriously considered for finals. There is just enough dirt to keep them out of the conversation usually - but also have produced some really entertaining (although not my cup of tea personally) productions.
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Post by Shroom on May 30, 2022 16:08:56 GMT -6
Here are my incredibly early predictions based off of the past few years, staff changes and the general direction programs have been taking. Dotted lines indicate a noticeable power level difference
1. Carmel (Vis/GE) 2. Broken Arrow (GE) 3. Avon (Music) --------------- 4. Tarpon Springs 5. William Mason ----------- 6. Prosper 7. Seven Lakes 8. Lincoln-Way -------------- 9. Fishers 10. Castle 11. O'Fallon Township 12. Carroll 13. Brownsburg 14. Homestead 15. Mustang ---------------- 16. Centerville 17. American Fork 18. Grain Valley 19. Rosemount 20. Marian Catholic 21. Kiski Area 22. PCEP ----------- 23. Johnson 24. J.F. Byrnes 25. Lakota 26. North Hardin 27. Morton 28. Murray 29. Centergrove? 30. I have no idea past this
I'd be more than a tad surprised to see anyone break into the top three. At this point it's a toss-up between ABC on who wins, Carmel is most likely IMO. Tarpon and WM are solid top half locks, but if Prosper, 7 Lakes or LW pull anything ambitious this year then I could see WM getting kicked down a placement. 8-12th are just guesses tbh. I do see OFT and LW being quite a lot stronger than in 2021 however, since neither bands had a program in 2020 and both bands started much later in the season than they typically do. OFT also has a Midwest Clinic appearance this year so, that rigor will likely positively affect the program. IMO Fishers will probably outcompete Castle this year. Castle had a fun 2021 program, but it was extremely simple and with a director change I could see it being difficult for them to succeed in the same way again. Basically anyone in 13-17 could probably peak their head in finals, with Homestead being the most likely imo should they get it together this season. I don't really think AF is going to be a contender for finals, they did great in 2018 but the landscape at Nats is way different than what it was then, I think 14th is the max at what they might place. I could really see Morton, GV and Centerville raising some eyebrows after their 2021 season. I kinda doubt either of the three will make finals, but they definitely have the potential to outcompete historically more successful programs.
If Woodlands decides to come they'll place above WM and probably Tarpon. If Franklin shows up they kick Carroll out of finals and get 12th
Murray wins A again Tarpon sweeps AA, Marian gets 2nd and North Hardin 3rd Castle wins AAA, Homestead and Rosemount get 2nd and 3rd depending if they're AAA or not. Johnson gets 2nd if neither Idk who wins AAAA but Avon probably pulls music and BA and Carmel split Vis/GE between each other, probably with a caption tie
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Post by yayband914 on May 30, 2022 17:18:33 GMT -6
Here are my incredibly early predictions based off of the past few years, staff changes and the general direction programs have been taking. Dotted lines indicate a noticeable power level difference 1. Carmel (Vis/GE) 2. Broken Arrow (GE) 3. Avon (Music) --------------- 4. Tarpon Springs 5. William Mason ----------- 6. Prosper 7. Seven Lakes 8. Lincoln-Way -------------- 9. Fishers 10. Castle 11. O'Fallon Township 12. Carroll 13. Brownsburg 14. Homestead 15. Mustang ---------------- 16. Centerville 17. American Fork 18. Grain Valley 19. Rosemount 20. Marian Catholic 21. Kiski Area 22. PCEP ----------- 23. Johnson 24. J.F. Byrnes 25. Lakota 26. North Hardin 27. Morton 28. Murray 29. Centergrove? 30. I have no idea past this I'd be more than a tad surprised to see anyone break into the top three. At this point it's a toss-up between ABC on who wins, Carmel is most likely IMO. Tarpon and WM are solid top half locks, but if Prosper, 7 Lakes or LW pull anything ambitious this year then I could see WM getting kicked down a placement. 8-12th are just guesses tbh. I do see OFT and LW being quite a lot stronger than in 2021 however, since neither bands had a program in 2020 and both bands started much later in the season than they typically do. OFT also has a Midwest Clinic appearance this year so, that rigor will likely positively affect the program. IMO Fishers will probably outcompete Castle this year. Castle had a fun 2021 program, but it was extremely simple and with a director change I could see it being difficult for them to succeed in the same way again. Basically anyone in 13-17 could probably peak their head in finals, with Homestead being the most likely imo should they get it together this season. I don't really think AF is going to be a contender for finals, they did great in 2018 but the landscape at Nats is way different than what it was then, I think 14th is the max at what they might place. I could really see Morton, GV and Centerville raising some eyebrows after their 2021 season. I kinda doubt either of the three will make finals, but they definitely have the potential to outcompete historically more successful programs. If Woodlands decides to come they'll place above WM and probably Tarpon. If Franklin shows up they kick Carroll out of finals and get 12th Murray wins A again Tarpon sweeps AA, Marian gets 2nd and North Hardin 3rd Castle wins AAA, Homestead and Rosemount get 2nd and 3rd depending if they're AAA or not. Johnson gets 2nd if neither Idk who wins AAAA but Avon probably pulls music and BA and Carmel split Vis/GE between each other, probably with a caption tie I hope North Hardin rebounds. Word is not very good right now.
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Post by Shroom on May 30, 2022 17:45:26 GMT -6
I hope North Hardin rebounds. Word is not very good right now. Same, Kentucky has an awesome small band community
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Post by mtnxdrew on May 31, 2022 7:17:20 GMT -6
Here are my incredibly early predictions based off of the past few years, staff changes and the general direction programs have been taking. Dotted lines indicate a noticeable power level difference 1. Carmel (Vis/GE) 2. Broken Arrow (GE) 3. Avon (Music) --------------- 4. Tarpon Springs 5. William Mason ----------- 6. Prosper 7. Seven Lakes 8. Lincoln-Way -------------- 9. Fishers 10. Castle 11. O'Fallon Township 12. Carroll 13. Brownsburg 14. Homestead 15. Mustang ---------------- 16. Centerville 17. American Fork 18. Grain Valley 19. Rosemount 20. Marian Catholic 21. Kiski Area 22. PCEP ----------- 23. Johnson 24. J.F. Byrnes 25. Lakota 26. North Hardin 27. Morton 28. Murray 29. Centergrove? 30. I have no idea past this I'd be more than a tad surprised to see anyone break into the top three. At this point it's a toss-up between ABC on who wins, Carmel is most likely IMO. Tarpon and WM are solid top half locks, but if Prosper, 7 Lakes or LW pull anything ambitious this year then I could see WM getting kicked down a placement. 8-12th are just guesses tbh. I do see OFT and LW being quite a lot stronger than in 2021 however, since neither bands had a program in 2020 and both bands started much later in the season than they typically do. OFT also has a Midwest Clinic appearance this year so, that rigor will likely positively affect the program. IMO Fishers will probably outcompete Castle this year. Castle had a fun 2021 program, but it was extremely simple and with a director change I could see it being difficult for them to succeed in the same way again. Basically anyone in 13-17 could probably peak their head in finals, with Homestead being the most likely imo should they get it together this season. I don't really think AF is going to be a contender for finals, they did great in 2018 but the landscape at Nats is way different than what it was then, I think 14th is the max at what they might place. I could really see Morton, GV and Centerville raising some eyebrows after their 2021 season. I kinda doubt either of the three will make finals, but they definitely have the potential to outcompete historically more successful programs. If Woodlands decides to come they'll place above WM and probably Tarpon. If Franklin shows up they kick Carroll out of finals and get 12th Murray wins A again Tarpon sweeps AA, Marian gets 2nd and North Hardin 3rd Castle wins AAA, Homestead and Rosemount get 2nd and 3rd depending if they're AAA or not. Johnson gets 2nd if neither Idk who wins AAAA but Avon probably pulls music and BA and Carmel split Vis/GE between each other, probably with a caption tie Don’t forget, if Franklin shows up, they will be AA, so may finish 2nd or 3rd.
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Post by philodemus on May 31, 2022 8:21:33 GMT -6
I hope North Hardin rebounds. Word is not very good right now. Same, Kentucky has an awesome small band community We do, but North Hardin is one of our largest programs. All relative, I guess. Their new director is young, but smart. Fingers crossed they can do great things.
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Post by statechamp1239 on May 31, 2022 19:55:48 GMT -6
Drop:
Boiling Springs H.S., SC - (Blank spot + They took out their fundraiser for Indy 2022 off their band page)
Source: Band Calendar
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Post by statechamp1239 on Jun 1, 2022 10:10:46 GMT -6
Drop:
Neosho H.S., MO - (Final Performance Run on Oct. 22nd)
Source Band Calendar
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Post by LeanderMomma on Jun 2, 2022 19:21:04 GMT -6
Just curious why there’s an assumption The Woodlands will be attending GN this fall???
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Post by Jake W. on Jun 2, 2022 19:32:03 GMT -6
Just curious why there’s an assumption The Woodlands will be attending GN this fall??? I too would imagine they can be removed from any speculation list. Consistent every other year attendance since 2007, and a wholesale director change for this next season on top of that.
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Post by marimba11 on Jun 2, 2022 19:53:38 GMT -6
Just curious why there’s an assumption The Woodlands will be attending GN this fall??? I too would imagine they can be removed from any speculation list. Consistent every other year attendance since 2007, and a wholesale director change for this next season on top of that. For sure!
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Post by jmike16 on Jun 2, 2022 22:01:33 GMT -6
Super early Grand Nationals Finals Prediction as of 6/2/22
In no particular Order:
- Castle - William Mason - Seven Lakes - Carmel - Broken Arrow - M.G. Johnson - Southlake Carroll - Avon - Tarpon Springs - O'Fallon Township - Prosper - Hendrickson (My wildcard/Darkhorse for Finals)
Bands looking into Finals:
- Mustang - Fishers - Homestead - Lincoln-Way - Brownsburg
Honestly, I could see any of these 5 bands make it in, bumping anywhere between 1 to 3 bands out. It will be insane though come November.
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Post by yayband914 on Jun 8, 2022 10:13:53 GMT -6
Confirmed:
Lake Hamilton H.S., AR (band parent via Instagram)
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Post by Jake W. on Jun 8, 2022 11:15:44 GMT -6
Confirmed: Lake Hamilton H.S., AR (band parent via Instagram) Not surprising, but a welcomed addition either way, and a notable mix into the already-brewing AA bloodbath. I think it's safe to say Lake Hamilton has established themselves as a faithful every year attendee, as this will be their 6th GN in a row to attend. I will say I wish they would add another BOA event to their season; they'd be a Finalist shoo-in at the smaller Southern regionals, and most years would make a solid run for the bottom few spots of St Louis Finals.
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Post by paddy on Jun 8, 2022 13:39:07 GMT -6
Confirmed: Lake Hamilton H.S., AR (band parent via Instagram) Not surprising, but a welcomed addition either way, and a notable mix into the already-brewing AA bloodbath. I think it's safe to say Lake Hamilton has established themselves as a faithful every year attendee, as this will be their 6th GN in a row to attend. I will say I wish they would add another BOA event to their season; they'd be a Finalist shoo-in at the smaller Southern regionals, and most years would make a solid run for the bottom few spots of St Louis Finals. The 22 confirmed AA bands would make a heck of show by themselves.
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Post by Shroom on Jun 9, 2022 16:25:48 GMT -6
I would be extremely surprised if Fishers, OFallon or Southlake Carrol make finals and Lincoln Way doesn't. That's not by any means shaming shaming any of those three bands since all three are probably going to be finals worthy but in terms of "bubble bands" LW is usually the among top of that group. They didn't do as well as in 2021 but they were probably still the best in their state by the end of the season and likely would've placed around Fishers and RR if they went to Nats in 2021
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Post by bandirectorman on Jun 9, 2022 17:10:48 GMT -6
I would be extremely surprised if Fishers, OFallon or Southlake Carrol make finals and Lincoln Way doesn't. That's not by any means shaming shaming any of those three bands since all three are probably going to be finals worthy but in terms of "bubble bands" LW is usually the among top of that group. They didn't do as well as in 2021 but they were probably still the best in their state by the end of the season and likely would've placed around Fishers and RR if they went to Nats in 2021 Lincoln-Way was nearly bested by Marian Catholic & Morton at the end of their season so I think it would be fair to state that they would fall solidly into the 20s placements last year. I don't understand the hype.
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Post by Shroom on Jun 9, 2022 17:34:02 GMT -6
I would be extremely surprised if Fishers, OFallon or Southlake Carrol make finals and Lincoln Way doesn't. That's not by any means shaming shaming any of those three bands since all three are probably going to be finals worthy but in terms of "bubble bands" LW is usually the among top of that group. They didn't do as well as in 2021 but they were probably still the best in their state by the end of the season and likely would've placed around Fishers and RR if they went to Nats in 2021 Lincoln-Way was nearly bested by Marian Catholic & Morton at the end of their season so I think it would be fair to state that they would fall solidly into the 20s placements last year. I don't understand the hype. Scoring in Illinois non-BOA competitions is infamously horrible. Look at how 2019 at the same competition how Lockport took Music and GE from LW and then not even a week later LW beat Lockport by 2 points, or how this year Morton was only .1 from beating O'Fallon Township and took Music and then scored 30th at Nats while OFT scored 18th. The ISU competition is also freezing cold as it's in central IL in late October, which is going to scew scoring towards bands with simple shows like Morton or MC. Maybe I'm just bias, but to me it usually seems like people don't give LW as much credit as other bands in their state since they are usually pretty elusive when it comes to competitions like Nats.
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Post by josephbandfan on Jun 9, 2022 18:57:15 GMT -6
Idk if I would necessarily be surprised as I can see any combination of them in finals. While I personally wasn't a fan of their show, Southlake Carroll probably had their best season in 2021. I would like to see Fishers in finals, though.
And I would still consider Hendrickson in the bubble as well despite going through a small rough patch. Multiple time SA finalist with a pretty good 2021 season.
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