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Post by yayband914 on Apr 9, 2022 15:06:08 GMT -6
OFFICIAL PRELIM SCHEDULE AS OF 10/19/2022
7:00 - Desert Pines H.S., NV 7:15 - Santa Fe H.S., NM 7:30 - Sky View H.S., UT 7:45 - Palisade H.S., CO 8:00 - Covina H.S., CA 8:15 - Wasatch H.S., UT 8:30 - La Cueva H.S., NM 8:45 - Montezuma-Cortez H.S., CO
BREAK
9:30 - Lone Peak H.S., UT 9:45 - Alta H.S., UT 10:00 - Olathe Middle H.S., CO 10:15 - Copper Hills H.S., UT 10:30 - Arbor View H.S., NV 10:45 - Ogden H.S., UT 11:00 - Skyridge H.S., UT 11:15 - Green Canyon H.S., UT
BREAK
12:15 - Valley H.S., NV 12:30 - San Marcos H.S., CA 12:45 - Buchanan H.S., CA 1:00 - Brighton H.S., UT 1:15 - Cedar Valley H.S., UT 1:30 - Lehi H.S., UT 1:45 - Silverado H.S., NV 2:00 - Farmington H.S., UT
BREAK
2:45 - Westlake H.S., UT 3:00 - Maple Mountain H.S., UT 3:15 - Uintah H.S., UT 3:30 - Pinecrest Academy of Nevada Cadence, NV 3:45 - Davis H.S., UT 4:00 - Mountain Ridge H.S., UT 4:15 - American Fork H.S., UT
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Post by neop on Apr 18, 2022 9:57:03 GMT -6
Drop: Fremont H.S., UT - band calendar shows trip itinerary, and they have no intentions of attending the regional, just state championships
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Post by statechamp1239 on Apr 18, 2022 13:41:50 GMT -6
Drop or drop to Likely:
Chino Hills, CA - (Fall Show)
In the WBA website they are signed up for The Conquistador Classic in Chino, CA plus, on their calendar it just say "Fall Show" whatever that means and doesn't say anything about BOA.
ik sad news.
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Post by neop on Apr 27, 2022 10:45:30 GMT -6
Confirmed: Arcadia H.S., CA (member confirmation)
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Post by yayband914 on Apr 27, 2022 19:51:02 GMT -6
Confirmed:
Green Canyon H.S., UT (band calendar) Lehi H.S., UT (band calendar)
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Post by statechamp1239 on May 16, 2022 5:29:12 GMT -6
Drop:
Arcadia H.S., CA - (WBA) NorCal Super Show
Source: WBA website and Band Calendar
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Post by yayband914 on May 19, 2022 23:59:30 GMT -6
Confirmed:
Ridgeline H.S., UT (band calendar)
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Post by dbalash on May 27, 2022 9:57:37 GMT -6
AS OF 05/20/2022 Confirmed (14):Arbor View H.S., NV (AAAA) - OUT? No competition listed. Very Likely (10):Davis H.S., UT (AAAA) [IV] - CONFIRMEDSky View H.S., UT (AA) [IV] - CONFIRMED.Uintah H.S., UT (AA) [III] - CONFIRMED.Likely/Rumored (11):Chino Hills H.S., CA (AAAA) - Looking to be OUT. Fall show Desert Vista H.S., AZ (AAAA) [II] - OUT. ABODA State Semifinals Mountain Crest H.S., UT (AA) [II] - Looks to be OUT. Red Rocks - St. George listed for 11/3 and 11/4, nothing for 11/5. Riverton H.S., UT (AAAA) - Looks to be OUT. MB Championships listed 11/4, nothing 11/5. .
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Post by statechamp1239 on Jun 8, 2022 19:01:32 GMT -6
Confirmed:
La Cueva H.S., NM - (Bands of America (BOA) St. George, UT)
Likely:
Organ Mountain H.S., NM - (5 day BOA Event)
Drop:
Bingham H.S., UT - (Red Rocks St. Championships only)
Source: Band Calendar
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Post by Marching Observer on Jun 11, 2022 15:21:57 GMT -6
We've had a SC band and an Ohio band come here. I want another random far away band to come attend this regional lol! Petition Norwin or Kiski haha. 🙃
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Post by fantasticalcloud on Jun 11, 2022 23:19:51 GMT -6
We've had a SC band and an Ohio band come here. I want another random far away band to come attend this regional lol! Petition Norwin or Kiski haha. 🙃 Yep that was us in 2019 (Fort Mill). Very fun regional- we placed 4th.
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Post by statechamp1239 on Jun 16, 2022 14:35:55 GMT -6
Confirmed:
Santa Fe H.S., NM - (Bands of America Western US Regional Championships, UT)
Source: Band Calendar
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Post by Marching Observer on Jun 16, 2022 14:57:41 GMT -6
I would have hoped with the California regional being cancelled that maybe a few CA bands might attend. Isn't looking great but still time. I'm sure a big factor into that is gas prices. If we think prices are bad here, CA is just all on a different level heh.
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Post by statechamp1239 on Jul 9, 2022 7:46:43 GMT -6
Confirmed:
Vista H.S., CA - (UTAH-Bands of America Competition)
Drop:
Clovis H.S., NM
Source: Band Calendar
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Post by statechamp1239 on Aug 8, 2022 17:07:22 GMT -6
My Early Prediction:
1. American Fork H.S., UT - AAAA 2. Chino Hills H.S., CA - If they decide to go and drop the WBA comp. 3. San Marcos H.S., CA 4. Organ Mountain H.S., NM - AAA 5. Farmington H.S., UT 6. Green Canyon H.S., UT - AA 7. Davis H.S., UT 8. Arbor View H.S., NV 9. Buchanan H.S., CA 10. Skyridge H.S., UT 11. La Cueva H.S., NM 12. Westlake H.S., UT ------------------------------------------- 13. Lehi H.S., UT 14. Lone Peak H.S., UT 15. Silverado H.S., NV 16. Cedar Valley H.S., UT 17. Mountain Ridge H.S., UT 18. Valley H.S., NV 19. Pinecrest Academy of Nevada Cadence, NV - A 20. Vista H.S., CA
I'm on the Fork Train. CHOO! CHOO! 🚂🚂🚂🚂.
San Marcos (CA) did great in 2021 could place well here, and Organ Mountain (NM) had an very entertaining show heard they are motivated to push to an new level this year. I felt for La Cueva HS (NM) they just did an fun show not to be super competitive as their show put EVERY holiday in one show which was ambitious, so I do think they might step it up. Lone Peak I just love their show theme this year Pele and Silverado (NV) did an amazing job in NMBC Championships earning second in their division, and Vista (CA) is an good band but they lost half their band compare to 2019 and didn't perform to the same as their previous year.
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Post by statechamp1239 on Aug 13, 2022 16:12:06 GMT -6
Confirmed:
Palisade H.S., CO - (Bands of America St. George, UT)
Source: Band website
*They were 2016 Class AA Champions*
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Post by statechamp1239 on Aug 30, 2022 12:56:54 GMT -6
Drop: Chino Hills H.S., CA - (WBA Conquistador Classic) Source: Band Calendar & BOA attendance list
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Post by Marching Observer on Aug 30, 2022 13:04:25 GMT -6
Darn. Wouldn't be surprised if it was because of travel expenses.
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Post by yayband914 on Sept 15, 2022 17:05:08 GMT -6
Classification update.
La Cueva is AA, not AAA.
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Post by dww256 on Sept 23, 2022 20:02:32 GMT -6
All right, well, I only come on this forum to do one thing, and that is predict the results of the St. George BOA. I haven't seen hardly any of the shows yet, though, so for starters I'll just group the bands into brackets based on where I think they will end up. 01. 88–90 American Fork 02–04. 86–87 Farmington, Green Canyon, San Marcos
05–06. 82–84 Davis, Skyridge 07–09. 80–81 Arbor View, Buchanan, Organ Mountain 10–11. 77–79 La Cueva, Westlake 12–18. 72-76 Cedar Valley, Covina, Lehi, Lone Peak, Mountain Ridge, Palisade, Silverado
So, hot takes:
I don't think that Farmington is going to experience quite as staggering of growth as in previous years, for two reasons. One, their school size has stopped growing by the hundreds as far as I know, so their band will probably stop growing by the dozens at some point. More to the point, though, Farmington's senior class size is (probably) about the same size as the others now, so we can expect that the students' individual base skill levels at the start of the season are probably not increasing tremendously from one year to the next, either. The second reason is that, were their score to increase at even a negative exponential rate, they would become a legitimate consideration, not just for consistently beating American Fork, but for making Grand National finals if they attempted it. Modeling an exponential curve off their previous years gives us the following projection:
2018: 72.75 2019: 80.75 2020: N/A 2021: 86.10 2022: 91.59!?
And I just don't see that happening. Not even close. I think they'll more likely hit the same skill ceiling of individual musicianship that American Fork and Green Canyon have already hit. From there, it's mostly down to show design and band size.
But you had probably all intuited that already, didn't you? haha.
Green Canyon's scores surprised me last year. I didn't think they could score much higher than they hitherto had, given they're AA. The one time I saw their show, I wasn't too impressed with it; maybe I just didn't like the theme. Egypt-themed shows always come off to me as corny. I loved their 2019 show, and I really hope that they will do something equally cool again someday. Their themes lately seem to be something of a world tour lately; I wonder where they'll take us next? Somewhere in east Asia, perhaps? I don't have a clue, to be honest.
I actually have seen Skyridge's show this year, and it is interesting. They sound a little sloppier than they did last year, but their show is also a fair bit more difficult. Honestly, it looks and sounds like a show that Davis would perform. Skyridge's soloists this year are also very, very good. Will they beat Arbor View and Buchanan? I am fairly sure of it. The last time all three were at St. George was in 2019. Skyridge was a band of 130 who had scored 75 at the previous St. George finals. This year, Skyridge is a band of 200+ who scored 82 at the last St. George finals. Will they beat Davis? I think it's very possible. I would put it at a 50% chance…but only time will tell.
For those who came in late (read: me), Organ Mountain High School was renamed from Oñate High School. Given their scores at the New Mexico State University Tournament of Bands in recent years, I don't see a pattern of huge growth against J. M. Hanks or Eastlake. Unless every program in that corner of New Mexico and Texas has experienced significant improvements in recent years, I wouldn't expect Organ Mountain to stand out too much.
I'm going to assume that La Cueva and Westlake perform at their average level. Last year was exceptionally low-scoring for La Cueva and (at least prior to BOA) exceptionally high-scoring for Westlake. Given that neither school is brand-new, I'm going to err on the side of caution and assume that these reflect outliers rather than significant changes in trajectory.
For 12th place, I really don't have a strong opinion. Lehi was apparently a standout last season, which surprised me a lot; I only saw them once before competition season started, and I wasn't too impressed. Someone mentioned to me that their soloists kind of carried the show, so I'm hesitant to say that they'll have another standout year. Lone Peak sounds good this year so far. Finals good? I don't know. I love Cedar Valley's concept for this year's show, but I have doubts about the band's ability to execute it well, particularly the brass section. Lone Peak is 2/3 of Cedar Valley's band size, but I think Lone Peak sounds better in brass right now. I saw Palisade in 2019, so I know they're all right.
But all this would be to ignore Mountain Ridge, who really came out of nowhere with their finals placement in 2021. I found their show last year absolutely delightful. This year, they have actually dropped from UMEA's 6A Open division to 6A Scholastic. I suspect this is a quirk of the Scholastic/Open band size threshold changing, but it could be that their band has shrunk. If they were still in 6A Open, I would have no problem declaring them the heir apparent of the #12 spot—but until I see whether they haven't shrunk, I can't lay down a compelling case for or against it.
I'm blatantly ripping off statechamp1239 for Silverado's placement, since I do not know much of the Nevada bands, besides that Foothill is very good and Arbor View is pretty good. But Foothill isn't coming, so here we are!
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Post by es203 on Sept 23, 2022 20:32:31 GMT -6
All right, well, I only come on this forum to do one thing, and that is predict the results of the St. George BOA. I haven't seen hardly any of the shows yet, though, so for starters I'll just group the bands into brackets based on where I think they will end up. 01. 88–90 American Fork 02–04. 86–87 Farmington, Green Canyon, San Marcos
05–06. 82–84 Davis, Skyridge 07–09. 80–81 Arbor View, Buchanan, Organ Mountain 10–11. 77–79 La Cueva, Westlake 12–18. 72-76 Cedar Valley, Covina, Lehi, Lone Peak, Mountain Ridge, Palisade, Silverado
So, hot takes:
I don't think that Farmington is going to experience quite as staggering of growth as in previous years, for two reasons. One, their school size has stopped growing by the hundreds as far as I know, so their band will probably stop growing by the dozens at some point. More to the point, though, Farmington's senior class size is (probably) about the same size as the others now, so we can expect that the students' individual base skill levels at the start of the season are probably not increasing tremendously from one year to the next, either. The second reason is that, were their score to increase at even a negative exponential rate, they would become a legitimate consideration, not just for consistently beating American Fork, but for making Grand National finals if they attempted it. Modeling an exponential curve off their previous years gives us the following projection:
2018: 72.75 2019: 80.75 2020: N/A 2021: 86.10 2022: 91.59!?
And I just don't see that happening. Not even close. I think they'll more likely hit the same skill ceiling of individual musicianship that American Fork and Green Canyon have already hit. From there, it's mostly down to show design and band size.
But you had probably all intuited that already, didn't you? haha.
Green Canyon's scores surprised me last year. I didn't think they could score much higher than they hitherto had, given they're AA. The one time I saw their show, I wasn't too impressed with it; maybe I just didn't like the theme. Egypt-themed shows always come off to me as corny. I loved their 2019 show, and I really hope that they will do something equally cool again someday. Their themes lately seem to be something of a world tour lately; I wonder where they'll take us next? Somewhere in east Asia, perhaps? I don't have a clue, to be honest.
I actually have seen Skyridge's show this year, and it is interesting. They sound a little sloppier than they did last year, but their show is also a fair bit more difficult. Honestly, it looks and sounds like a show that Davis would perform. Skyridge's soloists this year are also very, very good. Will they beat Arbor View and Buchanan? I am fairly sure of it. The last time all three were at St. George was in 2019. Skyridge was a band of 130 who had scored 75 at the previous St. George finals. This year, Skyridge is a band of 200+ who scored 82 at the last St. George finals. Will they beat Davis? I think it's very possible. I would put it at a 50% chance…but only time will tell.
For those who came in late (read: me), Organ Mountain High School was renamed from Oñate High School. Given their scores at the New Mexico State University Tournament of Bands in recent years, I don't see a pattern of huge growth against J. M. Hanks or Eastlake. Unless every program in that corner of New Mexico and Texas has experienced significant improvements in recent years, I wouldn't expect Organ Mountain to stand out too much.
I'm going to assume that La Cueva and Westlake perform at their average level. Last year was exceptionally low-scoring for La Cueva and (at least prior to BOA) exceptionally high-scoring for Westlake. Given that neither school is brand-new, I'm going to err on the side of caution and assume that these reflect outliers rather than significant changes in trajectory.
For 12th place, I really don't have a strong opinion. Lehi was apparently a standout last season, which surprised me a lot; I only saw them once before competition season started, and I wasn't too impressed. Someone mentioned to me that their soloists kind of carried the show, so I'm hesitant to say that they'll have another standout year. Lone Peak sounds good this year so far. Finals good? I don't know. I love Cedar Valley's concept for this year's show, but I have doubts about the band's ability to execute it well, particularly the brass section. Lone Peak is 2/3 of Cedar Valley's band size, but I think Lone Peak sounds better in brass right now. I saw Palisade in 2019, so I know they're all right.
But all this would be to ignore Mountain Ridge, who really came out of nowhere with their finals placement in 2021. I found their show last year absolutely delightful. This year, they have actually dropped from UMEA's 6A Open division to 6A Scholastic. I suspect this is a quirk of the Scholastic/Open band size threshold changing, but it could be that their band has shrunk. If they were still in 6A Open, I would have no problem declaring them the heir apparent of the #12 spot—but until I see whether they haven't shrunk, I can't lay down a compelling case for or against it.
I'm blatantly ripping off statechamp1239 for Silverado's placement, since I do not know much of the Nevada bands, besides that Foothill is very good and Arbor View is pretty good. But Foothill isn't coming, so here we are!
Your profile picture is VERY accurate
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Post by dww256 on Sept 24, 2022 12:31:56 GMT -6
Made it yesterday, for obvious reasons. lol
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Post by pitplayer19 on Oct 8, 2022 22:21:28 GMT -6
Thought I would post predictions while waiting for the other award ceremonies to start tonight. (the awards started while I was typing this whoopsies)
1. American Fork-No reason to see them not at the top thus far based on their UMEA scores 2. San Marcos-Had a very strong finish in 2019, I think they are the most likely to take silver 3. Westlake-I'm surprised but Westlake has killed it in competition this year. I think they can get a surprise medal here
I feel pretty good about this top three but after this it gets shaky
4. Green Canyon-I think Farmington could easily take this spot, the point differentials have been very close this year but I've heard better things for Green Canyon 5. Farmington-I've heard Farmington doesn't have nearly as impressive as a show this year, but this regional is still a month away and they are still getting good scores at UMEA 6. Organ Mountain-I know basically nothing about the non Utah groups so I could be dead wrong about this. 7. Davis-I really like Davis's program this year but they've been scoring pretty low, always below Westlake thus far. I could still see them as high as 4th 8. Palisade-Same thing applies as Organ Mountain, I'm going off other people here mainly 9. Skyridge- Skyridge I could see getting as high as 5th, they haven't been doing great this year thus far but they are still a solid program 10.Buchanan- Same thing applies as Organ Mountain 11. Arbor View NV-Same thing applies here as Organ Mountain 12. Lehi- This is going to be a very tight finals group with a very small drop off between 12 and 13. Lehi has done pretty decent against Green Canyon thus far so I see them sneaking in the last spot 13. Cedar Valley-Lehi and Cedar Valley have been neck and neck thus far but I'm giving the edge to Lehi here. 14. Brighton 15. La Cueva 16. Lone Peak I could also see Silverado, Covina, Valley, Vista, or heck Pinecrest at the 13-16 range too. There is a lot of competition at this regional this year in the latter finals spots. Wish that Chino Hills and Clovis didn't drop, would have made the Top 3 very interesting. I don't expect to be very right here, I'm really only confident in the Top 3. Should be a fun one to watch, it also gives us a good look of what AF will look like at Grand Nats this year!
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Post by hewhowaits on Oct 10, 2022 9:33:21 GMT -6
Official schedule as of 10/10
7:00 Desert Pines, NV 7:15 Santa Fe, NM 7:30 Sky View, UT 7:45 Palisade, CO 8:00 Covina, CA 8:15 Wasatch, UT 8:30 La Cueva, NM 8:45 Montezuma-Cortez, CO
Break
9:30 Lone Peak, UT 9:45 Alta, UT 10:00 Olathe Middle, CO 10:15 Copper Hills, UT 10:30 Arbor View, NV 10:45 Ogden, UT 11:00 Skyridge, UT 11:15 Green Canyon, UT
Break
12:15 Valley, NV 12:30 San Marcos, CA 12:45 Buchanan, CA 1:00 Brighton, UT 1:15 Cedar Valley, UT 1:30 Lehi, UT 1:45 Silverado, NV 2:00 Farmington, UT
Break
2:45 Westlake, UT 3:00 Maple Mountain, UT 3:15 Uintah, UT 3:30 Pinecrest Academy of Nevada Cadence, NV 3:45 Davis, UT 4:00 Mountain Ridge, UT 4:15 American Fork, UT
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Post by hewhowaits on Oct 10, 2022 9:42:18 GMT -6
Desert Pines and Santa Fe are adds since the last participant list update. Salem Hills, UT and Vista, CA are drops.
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Post by verysaxy on Oct 10, 2022 11:10:42 GMT -6
American Fork has such a fun show this year — definitely GN finals worthy.
With that being said, they should’ve named it POP!
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Post by yayband914 on Oct 10, 2022 11:40:45 GMT -6
With that being said, they should’ve named it POP! FloMo 2018.
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Post by verysaxy on Oct 10, 2022 19:49:20 GMT -6
With that being said, they should’ve named it POP! FloMo 2018. precisely the point the flowermoundification of american fork
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Post by dww256 on Oct 10, 2022 21:03:35 GMT -6
Thought I would post predictions while waiting for the other award ceremonies to start tonight. (the awards started while I was typing this whoopsies) 1. American Fork-No reason to see them not at the top thus far based on their UMEA scores 2. San Marcos-Had a very strong finish in 2019, I think they are the most likely to take silver 3. Westlake-I'm surprised but Westlake has killed it in competition this year. I think they can get a surprise medal here I feel pretty good about this top three but after this it gets shaky 4. Green Canyon-I think Farmington could easily take this spot, the point differentials have been very close this year but I've heard better things for Green Canyon 5. Farmington-I've heard Farmington doesn't have nearly as impressive as a show this year, but this regional is still a month away and they are still getting good scores at UMEA 6. Organ Mountain-I know basically nothing about the non Utah groups so I could be dead wrong about this. 7. Davis-I really like Davis's program this year but they've been scoring pretty low, always below Westlake thus far. I could still see them as high as 4th 8. Palisade-Same thing applies as Organ Mountain, I'm going off other people here mainly 9. Skyridge- Skyridge I could see getting as high as 5th, they haven't been doing great this year thus far but they are still a solid program 10.Buchanan- Same thing applies as Organ Mountain 11. Arbor View NV-Same thing applies here as Organ Mountain 12. Lehi- This is going to be a very tight finals group with a very small drop off between 12 and 13. Lehi has done pretty decent against Green Canyon thus far so I see them sneaking in the last spot 13. Cedar Valley-Lehi and Cedar Valley have been neck and neck thus far but I'm giving the edge to Lehi here. 14. Brighton 15. La Cueva 16. Lone Peak I could also see Silverado, Covina, Valley, Vista, or heck Pinecrest at the 13-16 range too. There is a lot of competition at this regional this year in the latter finals spots. Wish that Chino Hills and Clovis didn't drop, would have made the Top 3 very interesting. I don't expect to be very right here, I'm really only confident in the Top 3. Should be a fun one to watch, it also gives us a good look of what AF will look like at Grand Nats this year! So the thing is that UMEA and BOA don't score bands the same way. Green Canyon got an 87 at Red Rocks last year and an 85 in BOA finals. Westlake got an 88 at Red Rocks and a 78 at BOA. The BOA judges tend to be much more willing to give small bands with a big impact more credit; as such, I would expect Farmington and Green Canyon to come in just behind San Marcos, but I would honestly be surprised if Westlake got any higher than an 81.
The thing about Westlake's show this year is that it is seriously well-designed, but I have concerns that it won't scale super well through November, particularly the music—it's just not that complex. I have a strong suspicion that Davis will sneak through and get a 90.5 at Red Rocks like they always do, and Westlake will be stuck in the 89s, similar to what happened to Skyridge in 2020. There just isn't that much left for them to polish at this point. That said, they are still surprisingly very good.
While Palisade could do a good job, they definitely did not make finals in 2019. So that would be some serious movement.
On what I said about Organ Mountain, it looks like they did see *significant* upward movement relative to Clovis in 2021, so we'll see. Maybe they'll surprise me and get a really high spot.
Has anyone seen Farmington's show yet this season? I didn't get a good seat to watch it yet, and I would be very curious to hear how people think it compares to 2021.
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Post by pitplayer19 on Oct 10, 2022 21:19:12 GMT -6
Some very good points made here, there are definitely differences in how UMEA and BOA score that should be taken into account (if they did score the same we’d see bands like Davis in Grand National finals contention). The 2nd-4th bands in 6A at UMEA are very close this year (the difference between 2nd and 4th at the most recent UMEA competition was only about .3 points if I’m remembering correctly) and it’ll be interesting to see which ones stand out at the end of the season. I am rooting for Westlake due to how much they’ve seemed to struggle in the past 4 or so seasons. Definitely a very competitive group across finals (except for 1st place) with a chance for La Cueva and Organ Mountain (among others) to throw a wrench into the rankings. St. George is always a fun one to watch this year this looks no different, even without Clovis or a far East band coming out of nowhere.
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