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Post by dww256 on Oct 25, 2022 11:32:36 GMT -6
So I've seen more of the bands now, and I'm going to have to change my mind: the Westlake hype is real. So here's my final prediction:
1 American Fork 89 2 San Marcos 86 3 Westlake 83
4 Green Canyon 83 5 Farmington 82
6 Organ Mountain 82 7 Skyridge 82 8 Davis 82 9 Buchanan 80 10 Arbor View 80 11 La Cueva 78 12 Lehi 76
And here's my breakdown of why for each.
1: American Fork, no question. I don't love everything about their show, especially compared to what they took to Grand Nats in 2018. But they're still very polished, their choreography is killer, and I don't see any way they lose this.
2: San Marcos. They've been a reasonable high-tier contender at every St. George regional they've attended, but the most they've had on American Fork is taking the General Effect caption once. I would be surprised if they took any placement besides 2nd.
3: Westlake. Their music is super clean and hits hard, and their visual is very elegant and beautiful. I don't know who designs their shows, but, whoever they are, they have some serious skills and are getting better all the time.
4: Green Canyon. Their show theme this year is about the Old West. Called it on the world tour! Scoring-wise, there has been some indication that they're apparently not quite as good as usual this year, but I don't see it. Their ensemble coherence is impeccable, as is their marching technique. Their color guard is also splendid. The only thing I could nitpick is their soloists not being perfect. I expect they will be very close to Westlake in score, but I could be overestimating or underestimating.
5: Farmington. Let's talk about this show, because it is weird. I have never seen a high-tier band do a show so obsessed with the mid-tempo: the vast majority of the opener and the closer are at 144 BPM, and the ballad is close to 120. It reaches 160 at the very end, but only briefly. Notwithstanding, their show is extremely difficult for one reason: the step sizes are huge! 8-to-5 is probably above average, but maybe even less than average for the drill. And this isn't jazz running, either: it is cold, hard, constant marching throughout. The band executes it well...for about the first half of the show. The music is not super challenging. But overall I would simply point out that many of the general effect niceties Farmington capitalized on last season have not made a return (limited budget, if I had to guess), and their execution is just generally less polished. And, of course, no electric guitar solo. So I do not see them doing so well this season as last.
6: Organ Mountain. While they haven't moved much in the NM State competition versus J. M. Hanks or Eastlake, it sounds like they're increasingly viewed as a threat to Clovis. This seems like a measured prediction, but I could be totally wrong.
7: Skyridge. I still think that Skyridge could get an 85 if they had a clean, emotionally invested performance of their show...but they just won't. There is very little in their show that comes across as impressive if performed imperfectly--no long holds on the big chords, no stunning moves like the one in Westlake's ballad. Everything is fairly hard, and they're not rising to the challenge. It also doesn't help that the progression between movements is frustratingly abrupt. But they're still all right. I just think they've plateaued for now.
8: Davis. I don't say this often, but I actually dislike Davis's show. Let me explain. I'm kind of surprised Davis isn't following American Fork to Grand Nationals, consider how much they must have splurged on custom uniforms. But beyond that, it also seems like Davis has specifically sought a different show design than usual, and I do not enjoy what they have done. Davis is typically a stalwart of traditional marching technique, with just enough drill to be tasteful, but this season they have eschewed that for an unhealthy reliance on flutter running and unclear choreography. I didn't hear the title of their show, but watching it gave me absolutely no indication as to what the show's theme was. The Mount Timpanogos Invitational indicated that Davis is regaining ground, but I still don't see them placing super highly, not least because I feel their show is lacking effort compared to their usual offerings, regardless of how clean it is. I hope this is an isolated incident.
9: Buchanan. 80 was what they got in 2019, so I'm assuming similar for 2022.
10: Arbor View. Same story as with Buchanan.
11. La Cueva. I'm guessing they'll get between 76 and 79, based on past years. But I don't know.
12. Ah yes, the big mystery placement. Lehi, Cedar Valley, Palisade, and I guess Silverado all have a shot at making it in. I'm favoring Lehi slightly because they are, to my knowledge, smaller than the other bands I've listed--and, as I've mentioned before, BOA favors smaller bands that pack a punch over larger bands that pack the same punch. Oddly enough, both Lehi and Cedar Valley have been nipping at Green Canyon's heels all season--but I think UMEA judges have underestimated Green Canyon so far.
And that wraps it up from me! Best of luck to everyone.
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Post by dww256 on Oct 25, 2022 11:55:15 GMT -6
Phooey, I didn't realize there was a regional in New Mexico this year! Let's reorder these results a wee bit. I'll even make them a bit more readable:
1: 89 American Fork 2 : 86 San Marcos 3: 83 Westlake 4: 83 Green Canyon 5: 82 Farmington 6: 82 Skyridge 7: 82 Davis 8: 80 Buchanan 9: 80 Arbor View
10: 76 Organ Mountain 11: 76 Lehi 12: 75 Cedar Valley, La Cueva, or Palisade
It's going to be vanishingly close at multiple points, but there's my final prediction. I guess we will see how it holds up.
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Post by statechamp1239 on Oct 25, 2022 19:03:00 GMT -6
Phooey, I didn't realize there was a regional in New Mexico this year! Let's reorder these results a wee bit. I'll even make them a bit more readable:
1: 89 American Fork 2 : 86 San Marcos 3: 83 Westlake 4: 83 Green Canyon 5: 82 Farmington 6: 82 Skyridge 7: 82 Davis 8: 80 Buchanan 9: 80 Arbor View
10: 76 Organ Mountain 11: 76 Lehi 12: 75 Cedar Valley, La Cueva, or Palisade
It's going to be vanishingly close at multiple points, but there's my final prediction. I guess we will see how it holds up.
You can't really take results from the Nex Mexico Regional it was really early, and majority NM bands compete mid-October. So, Organ Mountain show was very incomplete. But in the Zia Fiesta (Oct. 15) 91.65: Clovis, NM (Best M, V, and GE) 87.15: Organ Mountain, NM 85.75: V. Sue Cleveland, NM 82.90: Volcano, NM 82.60: Rio Rancho, NM 80.95: La Cueva, NM (BOA St. George) 80.65: Las Cruces, NM 78.40: Hobbs, NM 77.60: Bel Air, TX 77.50: Del Valle, TX and Pageant of Bands (Oct. 21) Class AAAAA: 1st: V. Sue Cleveland, NM 2nd: Organ Mountain, NM 3rd: Rio Rancho, NM Doesn't present La Cueva HS placement/score. AND another thing Organ Mountain HS isn't going to this Regional anymore.
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Post by hewhowaits on Oct 26, 2022 9:14:23 GMT -6
Adjudication Panel
Music - Ryan Brittain, Evan Hinds, Mark Hoskins, Mike Howard Visual - Kyle Miller, Kevin Nix, Adam Sage Chief Judge - Ken Giese
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Post by pitplayer19 on Oct 26, 2022 12:48:11 GMT -6
Very good panel of judges there. Will be interesting to see if AF breaks 90. Correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe AF has never gone to Grand Nats with a show that scored higher than 90 at this regional.
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Post by hewhowaits on Oct 31, 2022 15:09:48 GMT -6
Final Schedule posted today with no changes.
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Post by 4score on Oct 31, 2022 19:17:49 GMT -6
Great panel. I can’t wait to see how this one turns out. Adjudication Panel Music - Ryan Brittain, Evan Hinds, Mark Hoskins, Mike Howard Visual - Kyle Miller, Kevin Nix, Adam Sage Chief Judge - Ken Giese
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Post by abtwitch on Nov 2, 2022 18:22:41 GMT -6
Let’s breathe some life into this thread! What do we think will happen? Hot take: American Fork wins
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Post by MadScientist on Nov 3, 2022 10:54:35 GMT -6
Let’s breathe some life into this thread! What do we think will happen? Hot take: American Fork wins Bold
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Post by abtwitch on Nov 3, 2022 12:11:49 GMT -6
Ok but on a serious note, very curious to see how San Marcos does here. I think they are the clear favorite for 2nd place after beating Vista Murrieta last weekend at WBA, they might even be able to take a caption off AF.
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Post by dww256 on Nov 4, 2022 9:20:55 GMT -6
They took General Effect off of them and Ayala both in 2018 prelims, so it's certainly very possible.
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Post by dww256 on Nov 4, 2022 13:09:52 GMT -6
On a related note, what do you folks think about American Fork's chances at making Grand National finals this year? To be honest, I don't think they have a chance—and I won't change that opinion unless they get a 92 or higher at St. George finals.
The only show they've done recently that I could see even having a chance is their 2020 show—and even that probably wouldn't meet the bar. 2018 didn't, and it's one of my favorites I've ever seen from them!
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Post by yayband914 on Nov 4, 2022 13:31:36 GMT -6
On a related note, what do you folks think about American Fork's chances at making Grand National finals this year? To be honest, I don't think they have a chance—and I won't change that opinion unless they get a 92 or higher at St. George finals. The only show they've done recently that I could see even having a chance is their 2020 show—and even that probably wouldn't meet the bar. 2018 didn't, and it's one of my favorites I've ever seen from them! What they score at St. George is not going to determine whether or not they make finals at Grand Nats. What they score in semifinals at GN will determine that. It’s tough to gauge because there isn’t anyone else at St. George going to GN that can be compared relatively to American Fork. AF could score an 87 at St. George and still make GN finals. Conversely, they could score a 93 here and still not make GN finals. It’s like when Blue Springs dropped 2 or 3 points from St. Louis to Indy. It’s not that their performance at Indy was worse, it’s just that it was a different panel of judges under a different set of circumstances.
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Post by dww256 on Nov 4, 2022 13:35:23 GMT -6
On a related note, what do you folks think about American Fork's chances at making Grand National finals this year? To be honest, I don't think they have a chance—and I won't change that opinion unless they get a 92 or higher at St. George finals. The only show they've done recently that I could see even having a chance is their 2020 show—and even that probably wouldn't meet the bar. 2018 didn't, and it's one of my favorites I've ever seen from them! What they score at St. George is not going to determine whether or not they make finals at Grand Nats. What they score in semifinals at GN will determine that. It’s tough to gauge because there isn’t anyone else at St. George going to GN that can be compared relatively to American Fork. AF could score an 87 at St. George and still make GN finals. Conversely, they could score a 93 here and still not make GN finals. I know that! I just meant to say that there's a correlation: they usually score 2–3 points lower at Grand Nats semis than St. George finals, and these days even 90 isn't safe finals territory at GN.
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Post by pitplayer19 on Nov 4, 2022 15:48:36 GMT -6
This is a very good judges panel so a 90 break I feel like has a 50-50 chance of happening, considering how I think this is AFs best show (at least design wise) since at least 2020, if not beyond. Will be fun to watch where Farmington and Green Canyon end up after some inconsistent results from year previous. San Marcos will surely be bringing it tomorrow as well and will have a strong showing in one way or another.
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Post by statechamp1239 on Nov 5, 2022 9:53:53 GMT -6
Alta is getting bigger and better every year. đź‘Źđź‘Ź Great Performance from them!
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Post by bigtrombone on Nov 5, 2022 17:14:15 GMT -6
Prelims Results:
Class A:
1. Pinecrest Academy of Nevada Cadence, NV 2. Montezuma-Cortez H.S., CO 3. Olathe Middle H.S., CO
Outstanding Music Performance: Pinecrest Academy of Nevada Cadence, NV Outstanding Visual Performance: Pinecrest Academy of Nevada Cadence, NV Outstanding General Effect: Pinecrest Academy of Nevada Cadence, NV
Class AA:
1. Green Canyon H.S., UT 2. La Cueva H.S., NM 3. Ogden H.S., UT
Outstanding Music Performance: Green Canyon H.S., UT Outstanding Visual Performance: Green Canyon H.S., UT Outstanding General Effect: Green Canyon H.S., UT
Class AAA:
1. Alta H.S., UT 2. Brighton H.S., UT 3. Maple Mountain H.S., UT
Outstanding Music Performance: Maple Mountain H.S., UT Outstanding Visual Performance: Alta H.S., UT Outstanding General Effect: Alta H.S., UT
Class AAAA:
1. American Fork H.S., UT 2. Westlake H.S., UT 3. Davis H.S., UT
Outstanding Music Performance: American Fork H.S., UT Outstanding Visual Performance: American Fork H.S., UT Outstanding General Effect: American Fork H.S., UT
Finalists:
Lehi H.S., UT Green Canyon H.S., UT San Marcos H.S., CA Skyridge H.S., UT Davis H.S., UT Westlake H.S., UT Arbor View H.S., NV Farmington H.S., UT American Fork H.S., UT Buchanan H.S., CA Cedar Valley H.S., UT Lone Peak H.S., UT
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Post by bigtrombone on Nov 5, 2022 17:39:53 GMT -6
Finals Schedule:
7:15 PM - Pinecrest Academy of Nevada Cadence, NV (Class A Exhibition) 7:30 PM - Arbor View H.S., NV 7:45 PM - Farmington H.S., UT 8:00 PM - Lehi H.S., UT 8:15 PM - Buchanan H.S., CA 8:30 PM - Lone Peak H.S., UT 8:45 PM - San Marcos H.S., CA
9:00 PM - Skyridge H.S., UT 9:15 PM - American Fork H.S., UT 9:30 PM - Westlake H.S., UT 9:45 PM - Green Canyon H.S., UT 10:00 PM - Davis H.S., UT 10:15 PM - Cedar Valley H.S., UT 10:30 PM - Alta H.S., UT (Class AAA Exhibition)
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Post by pitplayer19 on Nov 5, 2022 17:42:12 GMT -6
San Marcos and Farmington in bottom 6 and Cedar Valley in top 6 was not something I would have bet on (I didn’t see their shows today though)
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Post by thewho on Nov 5, 2022 17:42:46 GMT -6
This might be the first ever time I've ever seen both A and AAA miss BOA regional finals.
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Post by dww256 on Nov 5, 2022 17:52:46 GMT -6
San Marcos and Farmington in bottom 6 and Cedar Valley in top 6 was not something I would have bet on (I didn’t see their shows today though) Maybe I'm being a bit vain, but I feel so vindicated that Green Canyon outscored Farmington tonight. I've been surprised that Farmington has been scoring in the same neighborhood as Green Canyon most of this season, since I really feel like Green Canyon is still executing much more cleanly. Can't wait to see how finals shakes down! Although my prediction was clearly not super accurate, heh.
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Post by bigtrombone on Nov 5, 2022 23:12:13 GMT -6
This might be the first ever time I've ever seen both A and AAA miss BOA regional finals. This is actually the 2nd time in recent memory this has happened. The 2019 Orlando Regional had both the Class A and AAA bands miss finals. Though to be fair, if the 2019 regional had the current 12 band finals format, 2 AAA Bands (Gainesville & Sunlake) would've made finals.
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Post by neop on Nov 5, 2022 23:22:35 GMT -6
Westlake steals a caption!!
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Post by cinnamonpromenade on Nov 5, 2022 23:23:21 GMT -6
The livestream of this retreat is crazy lol
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Post by bigtrombone on Nov 5, 2022 23:25:22 GMT -6
Finals Results:
1. American Fork H.S., UT 90.300 2. Davis H.S., UT 86.925 3. Westlake H.S., UT 86.850 4. Cedar Valley H.S., UT 84.400 5. Green Canyon H.S., UT 83.950 6. San Marcos H.S., CA 83.100 7. Skyridge H.S., UT 81.700 8. Lone Peak H.S., UT 80.800 9. Farmington H.S., UT 79.500 10. Buchanan H.S., CA 79.100 11. Lehi H.S., UT 76.600 12. Arbor View H.S., NV 72.950
Outstanding Music Performance: American Fork H.S., UT Outstanding Visual Performance: Westlake H.S., UT Outstanding General Effect: American Fork H.S., UT
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Post by lostchoirguy on Nov 6, 2022 1:17:07 GMT -6
Wow, that's an impressive placement from Cedar Valley! Also, if AF scored so much higher than Westlake but still lost a caption to them, does that mean their visual is concerning for next week?
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Post by lostchoirguy on Nov 6, 2022 1:17:33 GMT -6
Also just noticed that 6 of the finalist groups come from the same school district.
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Post by pitplayer19 on Nov 6, 2022 2:25:48 GMT -6
Breaking it down for the most part (based on scores, I didn’t see any shows)
Did not see San Marcos that low. Don’t know if we overestimated them or underestimated the competition, but that’s how they landed. Good to see they sneaked into the top 6.
Wow, Farmington. I think this years show is just a misfire, not indicative of their future. They are going to learn from this year and I don’t see them falling by the wayside. They’ll be back for a vengeance next year, trust me.
Congrats to Lone Peak for getting in solidly, the program seems to be improving a lot, keep an eye on them. They are right next door geography wise to AF.
Don’t have anything to really say about Skyridge, love the How To Train Your Dragon music though. Their placements seem kinda inconsistent overall but I don’t think we’ll see them out of finals here anytime soon unless we have another 2019.
Poor Green Canyon, they seem to immune to medaling here, even after getting 3rd in prelims. They will bounce back, continue to dominate their division, and always be a fun band to look out for. Hopefully they can sneak in one day!
Cedar Valley, wow! Very impressive finish, they have a great program that’s going to get better and better. Utah seems to be getting more competitive by the year, and now we have another name to add to the mix. Will be interesting to see how they build off of this great performance in coming years.
Westlake taking visual has got to be the highlight of their season. The crowd went NUTS. They have such a great program and finally seemed to have breakers out of their slump as of late. They’ve gone so far even after a split and I hope they are even better next year. Glad to see their show got the recognition it deserves.
Davis took a step forward this year imo, they did get a penalty but it didn’t stop them from a strong 2nd. Very good program this year and I hope they keep stepping it up. I’m very happy with what they’ve done this year. I’m undecided if I liked them more than Westlake but the two were neck and neck all season and Davis were the ones to pull it out. Great end to their season.
I’m not sure if I feel better or worse about AFs chances after tonight. Losing Visual in finals is a little bit concerning, but not a deal breaker imo. This is only the third show of AF to break 90 here in finals, and so it without Visual shows that a) Westlake is really good and b) AF is bringing a killer show this year. Don’t want to elaborate too much further due to my very strong bias but I still think Finals is on the table pending a clean run, particularly in the visual department it seems.
This regional always has some surprises and it was great to see how it all turned out. Congrats to all the bands that ended their season on such a high note. I know this isn’t the most exciting regional, especially when San Antonio is literally right there but still some great bands performing tonight. If bands like Davis, Cedar Valley, and Westlake continue to take the steps they did this year. Utah is going to grow into a hotspot.
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Post by boahistorybuff on Nov 6, 2022 6:10:48 GMT -6
Congratulations to American Fork on regional win number 11.
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Post by dww256 on Nov 6, 2022 11:14:21 GMT -6
I watched it, and I'm still baffled that San Marcos didn't get an 86 or an 87. Their show was so clean! And so dramatic! And just really good!
Looking at who else is attending Grand Nationals, it's not looking super competitive for the finals cutoff. Very few Texas bands are going. No Reagan, FloMo, Vandy, Round Rock, Vista Ridge, CTJ, etc. Prosper is the only Texas band that I think has a real lock on finals. Wando and Blue Springs are also not attending, which frees up two more spots.
Beyond that, though, there are a lot of bands American Fork will have to outdo in order to make finals—mostly older bands that usually outscore them, like Marian Catholic and Center Grove. It will still be a challenge for them, for sure. But, for once, I think it is at least within the realm of possibility.
I am, of course, very impressed with Cedar Valley and Lone Peak—but also Davis and Westlake, of course! As much as Davis's show still isn't my favorite, it sure looks like Utah bands are moving up in the world. Exciting times may lie ahead!
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