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Post by hostrauser on Oct 16, 2022 17:27:30 GMT -6
Yes, I am still around! I am about halfway done with chemotherapy, but that nasty stuff will sadly prevent me from attending Grand Nationals this Fall. That said, while I haven't been very active on here this season, I most surely have been maintaining THE ALGORITHM and it is the basis for my votes in the Horn Rank poll each week. So, without further ado (adieu?), here are the results through 10/15 in the mighty spreadsheet...
1. Hebron H.S., TX
2. Flower Mound H.S., TX
3. Avon H.S., IN
4. Vandegrift H.S., TX
5. Broken Arrow H.S., OK
6. Carmel H.S., IN
7. Cedar Ridge H.S., TX
8. Blue Springs H.S., MO
9. Claudia Taylor Johnson H.S., TX
10. The Woodlands H.S., TX
11. Ronald Reagan H.S., TX
12. Tarpon Springs H.S., FL
13. Marcus H.S., TX
14. Cedar Park H.S., TX
15. Dobyns-Bennett H.S., TN
16. Coppell H.S., TX
17. Vista Ridge H.S., TX
18. Wando H.S., SC
19. Cy-Fair H.S., TX
20. Brownsburg H.S., IN
21. William Mason H.S., OH
22. Bentonville H.S., AR
23. Round Rock H.S., TX
24. Pearland H.S., TX
25. Bridgeland H.S., TX
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26. Wakeland H.S., TX
27. Mustang H.S., OK
28. O'Fallon Township H.S., IL
29. L.D. Bell H.S., TX
30. Rouse H.S., TX
31. Chino Hills H.S., CA
32. Moe & Gene Johnson H.S., TX
33. Fishers H.S., IN
34. Kiski Area H.S., PA
35. Westlake H.S., TX
36. Lincoln H.S., SD
37. Rosemount H.S., MN
38. American Fork H.S., UT
39. Castle H.S., IN
40. Kennesaw Mountain H.S., GA
41. Lincoln-Way Community H.S., IL
42. Keller H.S., TX
43. Ayala H.S., CA
44. Centerville H.S., OH
45. Jenison H.S., MI
46. Timber Creek H.S., FL
47. Waxahachie H.S., TX
48. Stephen F. Austin H.S., TX
49. Timber Creek H.S., TX
50. Vista Murrieta H.S., CA
CLASS AAAA TOP 10
1. Hebron H.S., TX
2. Flower Mound H.S., TX
3. Avon H.S., IN
4. Vandegrift H.S., TX
5. Broken Arrow H.S., OK
6. Carmel H.S., IN
7. Cedar Ridge H.S., TX
8. Claudia Taylor Johnson H.S., TX
9. The Woodlands H.S., TX
10. Ronald Reagan H.S., TX
CLASS AAA TOP 10
1. Blue Springs H.S., MO
2. Cedar Park H.S., TX
3. Dobyns-Bennett H.S., TN
4. Wakeland H.S., TX
5. Rouse H.S., TX
6. Lincoln H.S., SD
7. Rosemount H.S., MN
8. Castle H.S., IN
9. Kennesaw Mountain H.S., GA
10. Stephen F. Austin H.S., TX
CLASS AA TOP 10
1. Tarpon Springs H.S., FL
2. Kiski Area H.S., PA
3. Jenison H.S., MI
4. South Jones H.S., MS
5. Grain Valley H.S., MO
6. Marian Catholic H.S., IL
7. Green Canyon H.S., UT
8. Anderson County H.S., KY
9. Hernando H.S., MS
10. Lake Hamilton H.S., AR
CLASS A TOP 10
1. Bourbon County H.S., KY
2. Beechwood H.S., KY
3. Murray H.S., KY
4. MOC-Floyd Valley H.S., IA
5. Archbishop Alter H.S., OH
6. Estill County H.S., KY
7. Collinsville H.S., OK
8. Russell County H.S., KY
9. Edgewood H.S., IN
10. Western H.S., IN
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Post by doublegeez on Oct 16, 2022 17:37:40 GMT -6
The algorithm returns!!!
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Post by 70sguardchick on Oct 16, 2022 19:18:04 GMT -6
Welcome back - as a fellow survivor, I send you many vibes for easy treatments and many years of clear scans! Glad to have The Algorithm dispensing wisdom once again.
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Post by principalagent on Oct 16, 2022 19:35:42 GMT -6
How is Norwin unranked? Especially with Marian still ranked?
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Post by ilikeguard on Oct 16, 2022 19:52:06 GMT -6
Looking at the top 50 really gives a feel for just how tight competition has become. A few years ago, any one of those arguably could have made it into the top 32. Crazy stuff
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Post by verysaxy on Oct 16, 2022 20:15:27 GMT -6
How is Norwin unranked? Especially with Marian still ranked? After so long, one learns not to question the algorithm, as the algorithm has its ways. |
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Post by doublegeez on Oct 16, 2022 20:30:55 GMT -6
How is Norwin unranked? Especially with Marian still ranked? After so long, one learns not to question the algorithm, as the algorithm has its ways. ^^^ it knows all |
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Post by hostrauser on Oct 16, 2022 21:11:34 GMT -6
How is Norwin unranked? Especially with Marian still ranked? In Class AA? Well, despite winning Class AA last year, Norwin's overall 2021 rating was about 0.5 lower than Marian's (the algorithm looks at the entire season, not just the last show). Marian always scores well in BOA compared to local competitions. That said, Marian got beat by Morton at a local show yesterday, which will bring down their ranking next week, likely (incorporating local scores into the algorithm is (a) dicey, (b) time-consuming, and (c) low priority, so local scores often lag by a week or so in the algorithm). Plus, well, Norwin hasn't been out much so far this season. The results of the PIMBA Gateway show from 10/15 are still unavailable, and seeing if Norton closed the gap any with Kiski will factor into their ranking. All that being said, I believe Norwin was 11th, so they are right on the edge of the class rankings. |
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Post by principalagent on Oct 16, 2022 21:49:41 GMT -6
How is Norwin unranked? Especially with Marian still ranked? After so long, one learns not to question the algorithm, as the algorithm has its ways. I refuse. My day job requires me to question everything, and that behavior bleeds into my hobbies  |
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Post by N.E. Brigand on Oct 16, 2022 22:07:52 GMT -6
Who could ask for anything more?
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Post by hewhowaits on Oct 17, 2022 6:20:08 GMT -6
After so long, one learns not to question the algorithm, as the algorithm has its ways. I refuse. My day job requires me to question everything, and that behavior bleeds into my hobbies My day job is one of "trust the data but validate and verify, verify, verify." hostrauser's algorithm has been properly validated and re-validated. Each year we have the opportunity to verify. |
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Post by bassoooon on Oct 17, 2022 11:59:33 GMT -6
Here's my ideal algorithm ranking system.
75%: Number of sharks on the field
20%: percent of show occupied by bassoon feature
4%: GE average of last four seasons
1%: length of school name
Shockingly, I am not one of the advisors.
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Post by N.E. Brigand on Oct 17, 2022 13:33:59 GMT -6
Here's my ideal algorithm ranking system. 75%: Number of sharks on the field 20%: percent of show occupied by bassoon feature4%: GE average of last four seasons 1%: length of school name Shockingly, I am not one of the advisors. Does the number of bassoons make a difference? When I was a student back in the 1980s, I'd swear there was a band that marched a couple bassoons. Has anyone ever seen that happen? Personally I'd like some shawms, krumhorns, cornamuses, and racketts. |
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Post by hewhowaits on Oct 17, 2022 14:45:15 GMT -6
Here's my ideal algorithm ranking system. 75%: Number of sharks on the field 20%: percent of show occupied by bassoon feature4%: GE average of last four seasons 1%: length of school name Shockingly, I am not one of the advisors. Does the number of bassoons make a difference? When I was a student back in the 1980s, I'd swear there was a band that marched a couple bassoons. Has anyone ever seen that happen? Personally I'd like some shawms, krumhorns, cornamuses, and racketts. And now many Forums readers will be hitting Google to identify these double reeds! Who else thinks a few shawms would be more than appropriate coming out of Texas? |
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Post by trumpet300 on Oct 17, 2022 15:08:27 GMT -6
How is Norwin unranked? Especially with Marian still ranked? Because algorithms don't accurately predict real world scenarios. I said the same thing last year when after nationals marian was higher than them on the list. And Marian over Norwin wasn't the only instance that occurs in the list. Also, if we are including local shows, well Norwin being within however much of kiski at the show a few weeks back should tell you...they were like .6 away so if Kiski is 34, Norwin is around there somewhere, certainly not off of the list. I'm not saying I don't understand how the algorithm works, I do, my point is it's flawed in a way that could easily be fixed/adjusted. Either local shows matter or they dont...they can't sometimes count and other times not. And if a band very clearly places ahead of another in a head to head competition, the "overall score" of the season shouldn't place them below the band they just placed ahead of. |
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Post by paddy on Oct 17, 2022 15:11:13 GMT -6
How is Norwin unranked? Especially with Marian still ranked? Because algorithms don't accurately predict real world scenarios. I said the same thing last year when after nationals marian was higher than them on the list. And Marian over Norwin wasn't the only instance that occurs in the list. Also, if we are including local shows, well Norwin being within however much of kiski at the show a few weeks back should tell you...they were like .6 away so if Kiski is 34, Norwin is around there somewhere, certainly not off of the list. I'm not saying I don't understand how the algorithm works, I do, my point is it's flawed in a way that could easily be fixed/adjusted. Quoted for Truth |
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Post by trumpet300 on Oct 17, 2022 15:13:35 GMT -6
Because algorithms don't accurately predict real world scenarios. I said the same thing last year when after nationals marian was higher than them on the list. And Marian over Norwin wasn't the only instance that occurs in the list. Also, if we are including local shows, well Norwin being within however much of kiski at the show a few weeks back should tell you...they were like .6 away so if Kiski is 34, Norwin is around there somewhere, certainly not off of the list. I'm not saying I don't understand how the algorithm works, I do, my point is it's flawed in a way that could easily be fixed/adjusted. Quoted for Truth Much appreciated😂 |
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Post by macwinlin on Oct 17, 2022 15:49:26 GMT -6
Poor Oklahoma. 😂
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Post by bassoooon on Oct 17, 2022 16:55:52 GMT -6
Here's my ideal algorithm ranking system. 75%: Number of sharks on the field 20%: percent of show occupied by bassoon feature4%: GE average of last four seasons 1%: length of school name Shockingly, I am not one of the advisors. Does the number of bassoons make a difference? When I was a student back in the 1980s, I'd swear there was a band that marched a couple bassoons. Has anyone ever seen that happen? Personally I'd like some shawms, krumhorns, cornamuses, and racketts. It will be calculated as bassoon-hours. A two-bassoonist feature occupying one-eighth of a show gets a .25, whereas a bassoon trio (oh can I dream) gets a .375. In addition, the presence of every additional non-traditional double reed ("traditional" double reeds being oboe, English horn, bassoon, and contrabassoon) doubles the bassoon score. i.e. the aforementioned bassoon duet scoring a .25 turns that into a .5 upon the addition of a single krumhornist. |
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Post by N.E. Brigand on Oct 17, 2022 17:55:55 GMT -6
Does the number of bassoons make a difference? When I was a student back in the 1980s, I'd swear there was a band that marched a couple bassoons. Has anyone ever seen that happen? Personally I'd like some shawms, krumhorns, cornamuses, and racketts. It will be calculated as bassoon-hours. A two-bassoonist feature occupying one-eighth of a show gets a .25, whereas a bassoon trio (oh can I dream) gets a .375. In addition, the presence of every additional non-traditional double reed ("traditional" double reeds being oboe, English horn, bassoon, and contrabassoon) doubles the bassoon score. i.e. the aforementioned bassoon duet scoring a .25 turns that into a .5 upon the addition of a single krumhornist. One of the bands at Ohio State on Saturday opened their show with an unaccompanied bassoon trio. It ran 26 seconds in a show lasting 9 minutes 43 seconds. So that's 0.134? Flower Mound's 2014 show featured eight bassoons and one contrabassoon seated in a white box that opened up mid-show to reveal a pink exterior and the nine bassoonists. Not sure how long they actually played, but they were featured for 52 seconds in a show lasting 7 minutes 55 seconds. So that's 0.985? Or does the contrabassoon, being twice as long, count for twice as much, yielding 1.095? |
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Post by hostrauser on Oct 17, 2022 18:06:37 GMT -6
I'm not saying I don't understand how the algorithm works, I do, my point is it's flawed in a way that could easily be fixed/adjusted. Either local shows matter or they dont...they can't sometimes count and other times not. And if a band very clearly places ahead of another in a head to head competition, the "overall score" of the season shouldn't place them below the band they just placed ahead of. 1) Any advice is appreciated tolerated. 2) Local shows always matter. Have you heard of weighting? BOA has the most consistent judging from show to show of any circuit I've analyzed, so those scores take priority. Quick question: how would YOU account for Band A behind 0.35 ahead of Band B at a local competition and then Band A being 15 points ahead of Band B at a BOA Regional the very next week? And no, this is not an isolated occurrence, it happens all the time, every season. Different rubrics, and different judging systems, yield vastly different results. 3) But is that the best way to try to forecast what comes next? Doesn't your system boil down to "take the last score and throw away everything else"? If Band A beats Band B at five shows but Band B wins at two shows, Band B should automatically be rated higher just because they "won last"? |
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Post by bassoooon on Oct 17, 2022 19:46:40 GMT -6
It will be calculated as bassoon-hours. A two-bassoonist feature occupying one-eighth of a show gets a .25, whereas a bassoon trio (oh can I dream) gets a .375. In addition, the presence of every additional non-traditional double reed ("traditional" double reeds being oboe, English horn, bassoon, and contrabassoon) doubles the bassoon score. i.e. the aforementioned bassoon duet scoring a .25 turns that into a .5 upon the addition of a single krumhornist. One of the bands at Ohio State on Saturday opened their show with an unaccompanied bassoon trio. It ran 26 seconds in a show lasting 9 minutes 43 seconds. So that's 0.134? Flower Mound's 2014 show featured eight bassoons and one contrabassoon seated in a white box that opened up mid-show to reveal a pink exterior and the nine bassoonists. Not sure how long they actually played, but they were featured for 52 seconds in a show lasting 7 minutes 55 seconds. So that's 0.985? Or does the contrabassoon, being twice as long, count for twice as much, yielding 1.095? Sadly the algorithm gives the contrabassoon the same pointage as the regular bassoon, both of them being categorized as traditional double reeds. The algorithm does not lie. However, though FloMo 2014 may still fall short of 1 in this category, bands everywhere can take note and aim for that in their upcoming productions. That 0.134 for the band at OSU puts them in a very good position on next week's list—above many woefully bassoonless but still talented bands such as Broken Arrow and the Dixie Chicks. |
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Post by thestraightestlegs on Oct 17, 2022 19:47:54 GMT -6
I do agree that recent shows matters more, but they shouldn’t be an absolute trump card. The body of work is (IMO) the most important factor.
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Post by trumpet300 on Oct 17, 2022 20:36:00 GMT -6
I'm not saying I don't understand how the algorithm works, I do, my point is it's flawed in a way that could easily be fixed/adjusted. Either local shows matter or they dont...they can't sometimes count and other times not. And if a band very clearly places ahead of another in a head to head competition, the "overall score" of the season shouldn't place them below the band they just placed ahead of. 1) Any advice is appreciated tolerated. 2) Local shows always matter. Have you heard of weighting? BOA has the most consistent judging from show to show of any circuit I've analyzed, so those scores take priority. Quick question: how would YOU account for Band A behind 0.35 ahead of Band B at a local competition and then Band A being 15 points ahead of Band B at a BOA Regional the very next week? And no, this is not an isolated occurrence, it happens all the time, every season. Different rubrics, and different judging systems, yield vastly different results. 3) But is that the best way to try to forecast what comes next? Doesn't your system boil down to "take the last score and throw away everything else"? If Band A beats Band B at five shows but Band B wins at two shows, Band B should automatically be rated higher just because they "won last"? I'll use marian and Norwin as an example since this is why the conversation started. My point about these two groups last year is that there is no reason for Norwins showing at Maryland to effect their placement in regard to Marian. Marian attended only Nationals and at Nationals, they were 2nd to Norwin twice, yet the end of the season rankings puts norwin behind them. That is very clearly incorrect. Had Norwin and Marian faced off together at Maryland or anywhere else for that matter and Marian topped them, then sure, I could see how that affects their placements but that isn't what happend. As for local competitions, of course I understand weighting. The concept is not difficult to comprehend, but your own words demonstrate why local competitions shouldn't be used at all which is what I was getting at. They are all vastly different, yet they are part of the weighing system anyway. I'll also add that I am not advocating for just looking at the most recent score. I'm merely saying that when wins occur is important. Beating someone in Sepetember is not the same as beating them in Novemeber in any way shape or form. In your example, in Band A wins 5 shows over Band B's 2, you need to ask when did those shows occur? September? October? Did that band have a complete show? Did band B have a complete show? There are way too many factors at play to both use an algorithm and trust its results. |
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Post by Allohak on Oct 17, 2022 22:01:01 GMT -6
Does the number of bassoons make a difference? When I was a student back in the 1980s, I'd swear there was a band that marched a couple bassoons. Has anyone ever seen that happen? Personally I'd like some shawms, krumhorns, cornamuses, and racketts. And now many Forums readers will be hitting Google to identify these double reeds! Who else thinks a few shawms would be more than appropriate coming out of Texas? Not this one, but you'll not be surprised by that  I also would welcome a bagpipe from time to time, if we're being honest |
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Post by srv1084 on Oct 17, 2022 22:11:18 GMT -6
Quick question: how would YOU account for Band A behind 0.35 ahead of Band B at a local competition and then Band A being 15 points ahead of Band B at a BOA Regional the very next week? And no, this is not an isolated occurrence, it happens all the time, every season. US Bands right now:  Hope you're doing well. Please keep us updated to the extent you feel comfortable. |
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Post by josephbandfan on Oct 17, 2022 23:01:43 GMT -6
Never thought I'd see a drag race meme on these forums. It feels... correct.
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Post by paddy on Oct 18, 2022 4:08:08 GMT -6
And now many Forums readers will be hitting Google to identify these double reeds! Who else thinks a few shawms would be more than appropriate coming out of Texas? Not this one, but you'll not be surprised by that I also would welcome a bagpipe from time to time, if we're being honest The Anderson Highland Marching Highlanders of Indiana marched bagpipes in every show. They were competitive in Open class for years. Now the bagpipes and the name “Marching Highlanders” are part of the Anderson HS program. All the high schools were consolidated into one school in Anderson as the population shrank. They perform in the Indiana Track Band circuit. |
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Post by hewhowaits on Oct 18, 2022 5:06:25 GMT -6
Not this one, but you'll not be surprised by that I also would welcome a bagpipe from time to time, if we're being honest The Anderson Highland Marching Highlanders of Indiana marched bagpipes in every show. They were competitive in Open class for years. Now the bagpipes and the name “Marching Highlanders” are part of the Anderson HS program. All the high schools were consolidated into one school in Anderson as the population shrank. They perform in the Indiana Track Band circuit. Let's get Anderson to Grand Nationals! |
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Post by oldarmybandguy on Oct 18, 2022 11:42:42 GMT -6
To Hostrauser’s point, my band was the victim of the locality bias all the way back in the 90s. My Southern California band made the trip to Las Vegas for a tournament and we finished less than a point behind the vaunted Etiwanda, only to return to SoCal the next weekend and finish 4 places and 5 points behind them. How do you account for that?
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