Hostrauser's Grand Nationals Predictions - 11/09/22
Nov 9, 2022 20:53:58 GMT -6
cinnamonpromenade, twhsalumniparent, and 5 more like this
Post by hostrauser on Nov 9, 2022 20:53:58 GMT -6
Alright, I gave it a go. Figuring it would be boring (and also wholly inaccurate) to just slot corps by their rankings in the algorithm, I created a spreadsheet to simulate Prelims panels, Semifinals, and Finals. I then used Random.org to provide a small performance variable to each band each round (+/- 0.3 per judge). Once all of the formulas were in place, all of the band names were hidden until all the variables and calculations were entered. No bands' score was adjusted, no matter how surprising the result was (to me). Using BOA's own procedures for advancement and scheduling here is what all of the spreadsheets spit out. I hope you enjoy. I will add some thoughts at the very end of the post.
SEMIFINALIST BANDS, ANNOUNCED ALPHABETICALLY
AMERICAN FORK H.S., UT
ANDERSON COUNTY H.S., KY
ARCHBISHOP ALTER H.S., OH
AVON H.S., IN
BEECHWOOD H.S., KY
BOURBON COUNTY H.S., KY
BROKEN ARROW H.S., OK
BROWNSBURG H.S., IN
CARMEL H.S., IN
CASTLE H.S., IN
CATAWBA RIDGE H.S., SC
CENTERVILLE H.S., OH
DOBYNS-BENNETT H.S., TN
FISHERS H.S., IN
GOSHEN H.S., IN
GRAIN VALLEY H.S., MO
HOMESTEAD H.S., IN
JAMES F. BYRNES H.S., SC
JENISON H.S., MI
KISKI AREA H.S., PA
LAKOTA EAST H.S., OH
LINCOLN-WAY COMMUNITY H.S., IL
MOE & GENE JOHNSON H.S., TX
MORTON H.S., IL
MURRAY H.S., KY
MUSTANG H.S., OK
O'FALLON TOWNSHIP H.S., IL
PROSPER H.S., TX
ROBERT E. HENDRICKSON H.S., TX
ROSEMOUNT H.S., MN
STONEMAN DOUGLAS H.S., FL
TARPON SPRINGS H.S., FL
WILLIAM MASON H.S., OH
SEMIFINALS PERFORMANCE ORDER
1. ARCHBISHOP ALTER H.S., OH
2. MURRAY H.S., KY
3. BEECHWOOD H.S., KY
4. CENTERVILLE H.S., OH
5. BOURBON COUNTY H.S., KY
6. ROBERT E. HENDRICKSON H.S., TX
7. HOMESTEAD H.S., IN
8. FISHERS H.S., IN
9. ROSEMOUNT H.S., MN
10. WILLIAM MASON H.S., OH
11. AMERICAN FORK H.S., UT
12. PROSPER H.S., TX
13. GRAIN VALLEY H.S., MO
14. JENISON H.S., MI
15. AVON H.S., IN
16. MOE & GENE JOHNSON H.S., TX
17. TARPON SPRINGS H.S., FL
18. STONEMAN DOUGLAS H.S., FL
19. BROWNSBURG H.S., IN
20. LINCOLN-WAY COMMUNITY H.S., IL
21. O'FALLON TOWNSHIP H.S., IL
22. CASTLE H.S., IN
23. GOSHEN H.S., IN
24. CARMEL H.S., IN
25. KISKI AREA H.S., PA
26. MUSTANG H.S., OK
27. BROKEN ARROW H.S., OK
28. DOBYNS-BENNETT H.S., TN
29. JAMES F. BYRNES H.S., SC
30. MORTON H.S., IL
31. ANDERSON COUNTY H.S., KY
32. CATAWBA RIDGE H.S., SC
33. LAKOTA EAST H.S., OH
SEMFINALS CLASS AWARDS
CLASS A
1. BOURBON COUNTY H.S., KY
2. BEECHWOOD H.S., KY
3. MURRAY H.S., KY
MUSIC: BOURBON COUNTY H.S., KY
VISUAL: BOURBON COUNTY H.S., KY
EFFECT: BOURBON COUNTY H.S., KY
CLASS AA
1. TARPON SPRINGS H.S., FL
2. KISKI AREA H.S., PA
3. JENISON H.S., MI
MUSIC: TARPON SPRINGS H.S., FL
VISUAL: TARPON SPRINGS H.S., FL
EFFECT: TARPON SPRINGS H.S., FL
CLASS AAA
1. DOBYNS-BENNETT H.S., TN
2. CASTLE H.S., IN
3. ROSEMOUNT H.S., MN
MUSIC: DOBYNS-BENNETT H.S., TN
VISUAL: DOBYNS-BENNETT H.S., TN
EFFECT: DOBYNS-BENNETT H.S., TN
CLASS AAAA
1. BROKEN ARROW H.S., OK
2. CARMEL H.S., IN
3. AVON H.S., IN
MUSIC: CARMEL H.S., IN
VISUAL: AVON H.S., IN
EFFECT: BROKEN ARROW H.S., OK
FINALIST BANDS, ANNOUNCED IN RANDOM ORDER
FISHERS H.S., IN
CASTLE H.S., IN
O'FALLON TOWNSHIP H.S., IL
AMERICAN FORK H.S., UT
TARPON SPRINGS H.S., FL
DOBYNS-BENNETT H.S., TN
WILLIAM MASON H.S., OH
CARMEL H.S., IN
BROKEN ARROW H.S., OK
BROWNSBURG H.S., IN
AVON H.S., IN
MOE & GENE JOHNSON H.S., TX
FINALS PERFORMANCE ORDER
AMERICAN FORK H.S., UT - 8:00 PM
MOE & GENE JOHNSON H.S., TX - 8:15 PM
FISHERS H.S., IN - 8:30 PM
CASTLE H.S., IN - 8:45 PM
BROWNSBURG H.S., IN - 9:00 PM
O'FALLON TOWNSHIP H.S., IL - 9:15 PM
WILLIAM MASON H.S., OH - 9:30 PM
TARPON SPRINGS H.S., FL - 9:45 PM
BROKEN ARROW H.S., OK - 10:00 PM
DOBYNS-BENNETT H.S., TN - 10:15 PM
AVON H.S., IN - 10:30 PM
CARMEL H.S., IN - 10:45 PM
BOURBON COUNTY H.S., KY (EXH) - 11:00 PM
FINALS AWARDS
96.050 AVON H.S., IN
95.800 CARMEL H.S., IN
95.675 BROKEN ARROW H.S., OK
93.375 WILLIAM MASON H.S., OH
92.125 TARPON SPRINGS H.S., FL
90.650 BROWNSBURG H.S., IN
90.500 DOBYNS-BENNETT H.S., TN
89.600 FISHERS H.S., IN
88.675 AMERICAN FORK H.S., UT
88.125 MOE & GENE JOHNSON H.S., TX
87.675 CASTLE H.S., IN
87.575 O'FALLON TOWNSHIP H.S., IL
MUSIC: AVON H.S., IN
VISUAL: CARMEL H.S., IN
EFFECT: BROKEN ARROW H.S., OK
HOSTRAUSER'S FINAL THOUGHTS
Good luck to all 99 competing bands over the next three days!
SEMIFINALIST BANDS, ANNOUNCED ALPHABETICALLY
AMERICAN FORK H.S., UT
ANDERSON COUNTY H.S., KY
ARCHBISHOP ALTER H.S., OH
AVON H.S., IN
BEECHWOOD H.S., KY
BOURBON COUNTY H.S., KY
BROKEN ARROW H.S., OK
BROWNSBURG H.S., IN
CARMEL H.S., IN
CASTLE H.S., IN
CATAWBA RIDGE H.S., SC
CENTERVILLE H.S., OH
DOBYNS-BENNETT H.S., TN
FISHERS H.S., IN
GOSHEN H.S., IN
GRAIN VALLEY H.S., MO
HOMESTEAD H.S., IN
JAMES F. BYRNES H.S., SC
JENISON H.S., MI
KISKI AREA H.S., PA
LAKOTA EAST H.S., OH
LINCOLN-WAY COMMUNITY H.S., IL
MOE & GENE JOHNSON H.S., TX
MORTON H.S., IL
MURRAY H.S., KY
MUSTANG H.S., OK
O'FALLON TOWNSHIP H.S., IL
PROSPER H.S., TX
ROBERT E. HENDRICKSON H.S., TX
ROSEMOUNT H.S., MN
STONEMAN DOUGLAS H.S., FL
TARPON SPRINGS H.S., FL
WILLIAM MASON H.S., OH
SEMIFINALS PERFORMANCE ORDER
1. ARCHBISHOP ALTER H.S., OH
2. MURRAY H.S., KY
3. BEECHWOOD H.S., KY
4. CENTERVILLE H.S., OH
5. BOURBON COUNTY H.S., KY
6. ROBERT E. HENDRICKSON H.S., TX
7. HOMESTEAD H.S., IN
8. FISHERS H.S., IN
9. ROSEMOUNT H.S., MN
10. WILLIAM MASON H.S., OH
11. AMERICAN FORK H.S., UT
12. PROSPER H.S., TX
13. GRAIN VALLEY H.S., MO
14. JENISON H.S., MI
15. AVON H.S., IN
16. MOE & GENE JOHNSON H.S., TX
17. TARPON SPRINGS H.S., FL
18. STONEMAN DOUGLAS H.S., FL
19. BROWNSBURG H.S., IN
20. LINCOLN-WAY COMMUNITY H.S., IL
21. O'FALLON TOWNSHIP H.S., IL
22. CASTLE H.S., IN
23. GOSHEN H.S., IN
24. CARMEL H.S., IN
25. KISKI AREA H.S., PA
26. MUSTANG H.S., OK
27. BROKEN ARROW H.S., OK
28. DOBYNS-BENNETT H.S., TN
29. JAMES F. BYRNES H.S., SC
30. MORTON H.S., IL
31. ANDERSON COUNTY H.S., KY
32. CATAWBA RIDGE H.S., SC
33. LAKOTA EAST H.S., OH
SEMFINALS CLASS AWARDS
CLASS A
1. BOURBON COUNTY H.S., KY
2. BEECHWOOD H.S., KY
3. MURRAY H.S., KY
MUSIC: BOURBON COUNTY H.S., KY
VISUAL: BOURBON COUNTY H.S., KY
EFFECT: BOURBON COUNTY H.S., KY
CLASS AA
1. TARPON SPRINGS H.S., FL
2. KISKI AREA H.S., PA
3. JENISON H.S., MI
MUSIC: TARPON SPRINGS H.S., FL
VISUAL: TARPON SPRINGS H.S., FL
EFFECT: TARPON SPRINGS H.S., FL
CLASS AAA
1. DOBYNS-BENNETT H.S., TN
2. CASTLE H.S., IN
3. ROSEMOUNT H.S., MN
MUSIC: DOBYNS-BENNETT H.S., TN
VISUAL: DOBYNS-BENNETT H.S., TN
EFFECT: DOBYNS-BENNETT H.S., TN
CLASS AAAA
1. BROKEN ARROW H.S., OK
2. CARMEL H.S., IN
3. AVON H.S., IN
MUSIC: CARMEL H.S., IN
VISUAL: AVON H.S., IN
EFFECT: BROKEN ARROW H.S., OK
FINALIST BANDS, ANNOUNCED IN RANDOM ORDER
FISHERS H.S., IN
CASTLE H.S., IN
O'FALLON TOWNSHIP H.S., IL
AMERICAN FORK H.S., UT
TARPON SPRINGS H.S., FL
DOBYNS-BENNETT H.S., TN
WILLIAM MASON H.S., OH
CARMEL H.S., IN
BROKEN ARROW H.S., OK
BROWNSBURG H.S., IN
AVON H.S., IN
MOE & GENE JOHNSON H.S., TX
FINALS PERFORMANCE ORDER
AMERICAN FORK H.S., UT - 8:00 PM
MOE & GENE JOHNSON H.S., TX - 8:15 PM
FISHERS H.S., IN - 8:30 PM
CASTLE H.S., IN - 8:45 PM
BROWNSBURG H.S., IN - 9:00 PM
O'FALLON TOWNSHIP H.S., IL - 9:15 PM
WILLIAM MASON H.S., OH - 9:30 PM
TARPON SPRINGS H.S., FL - 9:45 PM
BROKEN ARROW H.S., OK - 10:00 PM
DOBYNS-BENNETT H.S., TN - 10:15 PM
AVON H.S., IN - 10:30 PM
CARMEL H.S., IN - 10:45 PM
BOURBON COUNTY H.S., KY (EXH) - 11:00 PM
FINALS AWARDS
96.050 AVON H.S., IN
95.800 CARMEL H.S., IN
95.675 BROKEN ARROW H.S., OK
93.375 WILLIAM MASON H.S., OH
92.125 TARPON SPRINGS H.S., FL
90.650 BROWNSBURG H.S., IN
90.500 DOBYNS-BENNETT H.S., TN
89.600 FISHERS H.S., IN
88.675 AMERICAN FORK H.S., UT
88.125 MOE & GENE JOHNSON H.S., TX
87.675 CASTLE H.S., IN
87.575 O'FALLON TOWNSHIP H.S., IL
MUSIC: AVON H.S., IN
VISUAL: CARMEL H.S., IN
EFFECT: BROKEN ARROW H.S., OK
HOSTRAUSER'S FINAL THOUGHTS
- Notable bands to miss Semifinals: Center Grove (IN), Lakota West (OH), Lawrence Township (IN), Marian Catholic (IL), Miamisburg (OH), North Hardin (KY), Plymouth-Canton (MI), Southlake Carroll (TX).
- Bands that were within 1.0 of the Semifinals cut-line in the simulation, and thus still have decent chance of making Semifinals in real life: Center Grove (IN), Lake Hamilton (AR), Marian Catholic (IL), Southlake Carroll (TX).
- If you had asked me about Castle's (IN) and O'Fallon's (IL) chances of making Finals before all of this, I would have said "slim." But they were safely in the Top 12 every round. The only "surprise addition" to Finals was American Fork, who jumped up after placing 14th in Prelims.
- ...which wasn't actually too much of a surprise. The Semifinals push for the Top 12 was FIERCE. Only 1.025 separated 9th and 15th place in Semifinals. In addition to the bands that made Finals in my simulation, James F. Byrnes (SC), Kiski Area (PA), and Mustang (OK) were right there. If any of those three ends up making Finals in reality, don't be shocked.
- I hesitate to call most bands "locks" for Finals, but Brownsburg (IN) and Fishers (IN) were Top 8 all three rounds in my simulation, so odds seem really, really good for each band to make their Finals debut in 2022.
- Avon (IN) and Broken Arrow (OK) flipped positions each round, with Avon being 1st in Prelims and Finals, and Broken Arrow being 1st in Semifinals. Carmel was 2nd all three rounds. It seems to be a toss-up between those three to take home the Eagle, because no one else was even that close in any round (probably unsurprisingly).
Good luck to all 99 competing bands over the next three days!