Hostrauser's Algorithmic Rankings - 11/13/22

[hostrauser]

Here they are, the final algorithmic power ratings of the year. Now with extra hubris! And also, an algorithm first (so far as I can remember): the Grand Nationals Champion did NOT end up in the season ending #1 spot.

NATIONAL TOP 50
1. Hebron H.S., TX (95.950)
2. Carmel H.S., IN (95.930)
3. Avon H.S., IN (95.853)
4. Broken Arrow H.S., OK (95.566)
5. Tarpon Springs H.S., FL (94.753)
6. The Woodlands H.S., TX (94.684)
7. William Mason H.S., OH (94.677)
8. Ronald Reagan H.S., TX (94.448)
9. Vandegrift H.S., TX (94.275)
10. Blue Springs H.S., MO (93.733)
11. Flower Mound H.S., TX (93.678)
12. Claudia Taylor Johnson H.S., TX (93.094)
13. Vista Ridge H.S., TX (92.482)
14. Dobyns-Bennett H.S., TN (92.239)
15. Cedar Ridge H.S., TX (91.983)
16. Jenks H.S., OK (91.425)
17. Cedar Park H.S., TX (91.320)
18. Fishers H.S., IN (90.859)
19. Brownsburg H.S., IN (90.777)
20. Round Rock H.S., TX (90.705)
21. Coppell H.S., TX (90.657)
22. Marcus H.S., TX (90.382)
23. Wando H.S., SC (90.300)
24. Bentonville H.S., AR (89.862)
25. Pearland H.S., TX (89.422)
--------------------------------------------
26. Bridgeland H.S., TX (89.266)
27. Wakeland H.S., TX (89.247)
28. Prosper H.S., TX (89.144)
29. Keller H.S., TX (89.101)
30. American Fork H.S., UT (89.068)
31. Castle H.S., IN (88.994)
32. Moe & Gene Johnson H.S., TX (88.760)
33. Mustang H.S., OK (88.675)
34. James Bowie H.S., TX (88.567)
35. Lincoln H.S., SD (88.495)
36. O'Fallon Township H.S., IL (88.437)
37. Robert E. Hendrickson H.S., TX (88.344)
38. Cy-Fair H.S., TX (88.109)
39. Southlake Carroll H.S., TX (87.983)
40. Rouse H.S., TX (87.860)
41. Westlake H.S., TX (87.826)
42. L.D. Bell H.S., TX (87.776)
43. Chino Hills H.S., CA (87.612)
44. Timber Creek H.S., TX (87.429)
45. Homestead H.S., IN (87.409)
46. James F. Byrnes H.S., SC (87.388)
47. Leander H.S., TX (87.013)
48. Waxahachie H.S., TX (87.011)
49. Bartlett H.S., TN (86.765)
50. Timber Creek H.S., FL (86.732)

CLASS AAAA TOP 25
1. Hebron H.S., TX (95.950)
2. Carmel H.S., IN (95.930)
3. Avon H.S., IN (95.853)
4. Broken Arrow H.S., OK (95.566)
5. The Woodlands H.S., TX (94.684)
6. William Mason H.S., OH (94.677)
7. Ronald Reagan H.S., TX (94.448)
8. Vandegrift H.S., TX (94.275)
9. Flower Mound H.S., TX (93.678)
10. Claudia Taylor Johnson H.S., TX (93.094)
11. Vista Ridge H.S., TX (92.482)
12. Cedar Ridge H.S., TX (91.983)
13. Jenks H.S., OK (91.425)
14. Cedar Park H.S., TX (91.320)
15. Fishers H.S., IN (90.859)
16. Brownsburg H.S., IN (90.777)
17. Round Rock H.S., TX (90.705)
18. Coppell H.S., TX (90.657)
19. Marcus H.S., TX (90.382)
20. Wando H.S., SC (90.300)
21. Bentonville H.S., AR (89.862)
22. Pearland H.S., TX (89.422)
23. Bridgeland H.S., TX (89.266)
24. Prosper H.S., TX (89.144)
25. Keller H.S., TX (89.101)

CLASS AAA TOP 25
1. Blue Springs H.S., MO (93.733)
2. Dobyns-Bennett H.S., TN (92.239)
3. Cedar Park H.S., TX (91.320)
4. Wakeland H.S., TX (89.247)
5. Castle H.S., IN (88.994)
6. Lincoln H.S., SD (88.495)
7. Robert E. Hendrickson H.S., TX (88.344)
8. Rouse H.S., TX (87.860)
9. Homestead H.S., IN (87.409)
10. Leander H.S., TX (87.013)
11. Stephen F. Austin H.S., TX (86.455)
12. Rosemount H.S., MN (86.088)
13. Clovis H.S., NM (86.023)
14. Rockford H.S., MI (85.892)
15. Wylie East H.S., TX (85.780)
16. Lone Star H.S., TX (85.726)
17. Fossil Ridge H.S., CO (85.419)
18. Lafayette H.S., KY (85.376)
19. Friendswood H.S., TX (84.916)
20. Goshen H.S., IN (84.826)
21. Clear Brook H.S., TX (84.731)
22. Southmoore H.S., OK (84.613)
23. Homestead H.S., CA (84.608)
24. McKinney North H.S., TX (84.477)
25. Lakota East H.S., OH (84.400)

CLASS AA TOP 25
1. Tarpon Springs H.S., FL (94.753)
2. Jenison H.S., MI (86.515)
3. Morton H.S., IL (86.350)
4. South Jones H.S., MS (86.055)
5. Kiski Area H.S., PA (85.504)
6. Grain Valley H.S., MO (84.729)
7. Franklin H.S., TN (84.378)
8. Ridgeline H.S., WA (84.313)
9. Hernando H.S., MS (83.977)
10. Green Canyon H.S., UT (83.854)
11. Jasper H.S., IN (83.627)
12. Dartmouth H.S., MA (83.501)
13. Brandon Valley H.S., SD (83.479)
14. Norwin H.S., PA (83.047)
15. Loveland H.S., CO (82.749)
16. Campbell County H.S., KY (82.344)
17. Miamisburg H.S., OH (82.160)
18. Camdenton H.S., MO (82.150)
19. Whitewater H.S., GA (82.140)
20. Germantown H.S., MS (81.354)
21. Baldwinsville H.S., NY (81.345)
22. Lovejoy H.S., TX (81.323)
23. Air Academy H.S., CO (81.273)
24. Anderson County H.S., KY (81.009)
25. Argyle H.S., TX (80.995)

CLASS A TOP 25
1. Edgewood H.S., IN (79.585)
2. Archbishop Alter H.S., OH (79.164)
3. Bourbon County H.S., KY (79.111)
4. Beechwood H.S., KY (78.913)
5. Estill County H.S., KY (78.012)
6. The King's Academy, CA (77.697)
7. Buhler H.S., KS (76.748)
8. MOC-Floyd Valley H.S., IA (76.040)
9. Signal Mountain H.S., TN (75.808)
10. Northwestern H.S., IN (75.707)
11. Murray H.S., KY (75.381)
12. Collinsville H.S., OK (75.050)
13. Russell County H.S., KY (74.436)
14. Sullivan H.S., MO (73.594)
15. Finneytown H.S., OH (73.250)
16. Independence H.S., IA (72.516)
17. Adair County H.S., KY (72.472)
18. Krum H.S., TX (72.366)
19. Kent City H.S., MI (72.136)
20. Mineola H.S., TX (70.876)
21. Pinecrest Academy Cadence, NV (70.840)
22. Princeton Community H.S., IN (70.699)
23. Pecos H.S., TX (70.420)
24. Fairfield H.S., IN (70.300)
25. Immaculata H.S., NJ (69.898)

[4score]

So cool! Thanks for doing this!

[mtnxdrew]

Crazy how competitive AA is after Tarpon. It showed with how close Morton, Kiski, and Jenison were in semis!

[N.E. Brigand]

Nice to see Finneytown on the Class A list. At OMEA state finals, I put them down for what works out to a BOA score of 72.5. I thought they had a rougher run at Grand Nationals, and would have given them a 71 there, but I'd definitely rank them as the best OMEA Class B band this year. The second-best Class B band is probably just good enough to make your Class A list, if they ever competed in an event whose scores meet your standards. There's actually a Class C band that I feel is even better than Finneytown, but they chose to perform in OMEA's Class AA this year. I think there are twelve bands who performed in OMEA state finals who deserved higher scores than Finneytown (if there were scores). Two of them made your lists. Most of the others, even if their scores were available and acceptable to you, would miss the lists due to being in higher classifications.

[ilikeguard]

Nov 14, 2022 6:05:19 GMT -6 mtnxdrew said:

Crazy how competitive AA is after Tarpon. It showed with how close Morton, Kiski, and Jenison were in semis!

The gap between 2 and 25 is an entire point smaller than the gap between 1 and 25 for AAAA. AA is, mathematically, the most competitive class. Crazy stuff!

I trust the algorithm, mostly, but I would wager that Argyle, TX could be ranked as high as above Jasper, IN.

[abtwitch]

Nov 14, 2022 14:03:27 GMT -6 ilikeguard said:

Nov 14, 2022 6:05:19 GMT -6 mtnxdrew said:

Crazy how competitive AA is after Tarpon. It showed with how close Morton, Kiski, and Jenison were in semis!

The gap between 2 and 25 is an entire point smaller than the gap between 1 and 25 for AAAA. AA is, mathematically, the most competitive class. Crazy stuff!

I trust the algorithm, mostly, but I would wager that Argyle, TX could be ranked as high as above Jasper, IN.

Hot take maybe: Argyle has some of the best individual visual out of any Texas band.

[vidal28rdg]

Interesting to see how far the GN TX groups got lifted upwards by their Grand Nats performances. I’d definitely label the data on how they would’ve fared against their local competition in Texas as “incomplete”. Aside from Hendrickson at BOASA and M&G at a less competitive Waco regional, and the other twos’ UIL area competitions, that’s all there is for those 4 when it came to late season competition in their state. I wonder how they would’ve fared in the other marquee big competitions that we were able to get data for much of the rest of the TX groups in this ranking

[4score]

Nov 14, 2022 14:03:27 GMT -6 ilikeguard said:

Nov 14, 2022 6:05:19 GMT -6 mtnxdrew said:

Crazy how competitive AA is after Tarpon. It showed with how close Morton, Kiski, and Jenison were in semis!

The gap between 2 and 25 is an entire point smaller than the gap between 1 and 25 for AAAA. AA is, mathematically, the most competitive class. Crazy stuff!

I trust the algorithm, mostly, but I would wager that Argyle, TX could be ranked as high as above Jasper, IN.

I’d love to see argyle if anyone has video.

This does make wonder what a 2A grand mats would look like. How many of these programs don’t attend grand nats because it’s high unlikely they’d go on to semis? In reality it seems like many if not all would be on the bubble for semis?

[ohioguy2]

Nov 15, 2022 8:19:30 GMT -6 4score said:

Nov 14, 2022 14:03:27 GMT -6 ilikeguard said:

The gap between 2 and 25 is an entire point smaller than the gap between 1 and 25 for AAAA. AA is, mathematically, the most competitive class. Crazy stuff!

I trust the algorithm, mostly, but I would wager that Argyle, TX could be ranked as high as above Jasper, IN.

I’d love to see argyle if anyone has video.

This does make wonder what a 2A grand mats would look like. How many of these programs don’t attend grand nats because it’s high unlikely they’d go on to semis? In reality it seems like many if not all would be on the bubble for semis?

The AA bands ranked 16th and 17th were both tied for 31st (first bands out) this past weekend so I would say that is a fair assessment.

[QuadSquad03]

(So I know this is an algorithm and doesn't reflect any opinions or bias, and this won't change anything, but as a Bixby alum, I am obligated to bring this up)

Southmoore 22nd in AAA, but Bixby not even present hurts to see. At OBA, Bixby got 3.85 points above Southmoore, and yes, Bixby did not compete in BOA, But .9 points behind Mustang (who got 17th in GN Semis) should put Bixby at or above Rosemount's level this year. Were OBA, or any of the Oklahoma local shows, considered in the algorithm this year?

[N.E. Brigand]

Curious if hostrauser or any other stats experts have thoughts on what might be called the Springboro-Norton gap. In Prelims, for the most part until you get to the top ten, each band is separated by a point or less. But Springboro in 67th place had a score of 72.50 and Norton in 68th place had a score of 68.85. That's a spread of 3.85 3.65 points. Is it something about performance quality or something about the judging that leads to this no man's land around the 70-point mark?

[tarheel36]

Nov 16, 2022 18:07:03 GMT -6 N.E. Brigand said:

Curious if hostrauser or any other stats experts have thoughts on what might be called the Springboro-Norton gap. In Prelims, for the most part until you get to the top ten, each band is separated by a point or less. But Springboro in 67th place had a score of 72.50 and Norton in 68th place had a score of 68.85. That's a spread of 3.85 points. Is it something about performance quality or something about the judging that leads to this no man's land around the 70-point mark?

IMO it may have to do with the 5 box system. Box 4 begins at 14.0, which averages out to a 70. Several judges deciding a band is “high box 3” leads to a score a point or two under 70 and several deciding a band is “low box 4” leads to the opposite outcome.

[Allohak]

Nov 16, 2022 19:20:45 GMT -6 tarheel36 said:

Nov 16, 2022 18:07:03 GMT -6 N.E. Brigand said:

Curious if hostrauser or any other stats experts have thoughts on what might be called the Springboro-Norton gap. In Prelims, for the most part until you get to the top ten, each band is separated by a point or less. But Springboro in 67th place had a score of 72.50 and Norton in 68th place had a score of 68.85. That's a spread of 3.85 points. Is it something about performance quality or something about the judging that leads to this no man's land around the 70-point mark?

IMO it may have to do with the 5 box system. Box 4 begins at 14.0, which averages out to a 70. Several judges deciding a band is “high box 3” leads to a score a point or two under 70 and several deciding a band is “low box 4” leads to the opposite outcome.

This, coupled with numbers management when judging so many groups, means the numbers right at the box 3/box 4 cutoff are likely reserved in case another group is later juuuust a bit stronger/weaker