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Post by 18Saxes on Oct 26, 2023 8:39:24 GMT -6
Something that has been discussed many times in the marching band community (especially after 2015 Grand Nationals), is the impact performance order has on scores. While I am quite confident there is a statistically significant relationship between them, I have yet to see a detailed analysis to back it up.
I've decided in my freetime (mostly downtime while at work), I am going to attempt to do said analysis. The problem is, I am not sure of where to go for data on performance order. I know the detailed recaps that Music For All posts have the bands in order of their performance. Though ever since they redesigned their website, a large number of links are broken and lead to page not found.
I was hoping to use data back till at least 1996, and I was wondering if anyone knows of a place where I can reliably get all of this data, or if anyone may have records of this themselves that they can send me.
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Post by dallasmavericks on Oct 26, 2023 9:14:37 GMT -6
Are you looking for just GN finals performance order for now?
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Post by 18Saxes on Oct 26, 2023 9:24:14 GMT -6
Are you looking for just GN finals performance order for now? The more data the better. If it comes to it, I'll just work with what is available on the MFA website, and see how much data I can use a web crawler to parse automatically without me having to compile it manually. |
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Post by OldSchoolTrumpet on Oct 26, 2023 9:31:33 GMT -6
Are you looking for just GN finals performance order for now? The more data the better. If it comes to it, I'll just work with what is available on the MFA website, and see how much data I can use a web crawler to parse automatically without me having to compile it manually. You'll need to make some distinction between results from 2015 back and 2016 forward (before/after the Hebron Rule) as they started the top half/bottom half seperations for finals in 2016. That would skew any data compared to 2015 back since the higher placing groups will all have performed later by rule. |
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Post by 18Saxes on Oct 26, 2023 9:38:58 GMT -6
The more data the better. If it comes to it, I'll just work with what is available on the MFA website, and see how much data I can use a web crawler to parse automatically without me having to compile it manually. You'll need to make some distinction between results from 2015 back and 2016 forward (before/after the Hebron Rule) as they started the top half/bottom half seperations for finals in 2016. That would skew any data compared to 2015 back since the higher placing groups will all have performed later by rule. That was the plan, as I was also curious about how much that rule change had an impact. |
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Post by dallasmavericks on Oct 26, 2023 10:20:01 GMT -6
2010's pre-finals split:
2010:
-Kennesaw Mountain
-Marian Catholic
-Cedar Park
-Tarpon Springs
-Carmel
-Broken Arrow
-Avon
-Lawrence Central
-Center Grove
-Stephen F. Austin
-LD Bell
-Union
2011:
-Marian Catholic
-Owasso
-Broken Arrow
-The Woodlands
-Avon
-Wando
-Lawrence Central
-William Mason
-Union
-Carmel
-Claudia Taylor Johnson
-Lafayette, LA
2012:
-Kennesaw Mountain
-William Mason
-Carmel
-Avon
-Broken Arrow
-James Bowie
-Marian Catholic
-Ronald Reagan
-Plymouth-Canton
-Tarpon Springs
-Lawrence Central
-Center Grove
2013:
-Marian Catholic
-Avon
-The Woodlands
-Carmel
-Ayala
-Cedar Ridge
-Harrison
-Lawrence Central
-Round Rock
-LD Bell
-Marcus
-William Mason
2014:
-Flower Mound
-Wando
-Kennesaw Mountain
-Homestead
-Tarpon Springs
-Avon
-Carmel
-Union
-Marian Catholic
-Broken Arrow
-Lawrence Township
-William Mason
2015:
-Hebron
-Homestead
-Round Rock
-Marian Catholic
-Harrison
-William Mason
-Blue Springs
-Carmel
-Avon
-Keller
-The Woodlands
-Broken Arrow
2016:
-Claudia Taylor Johnson
-Wando
-Ronald Reagan
-Castle
-Dobyns-Bennett
-Marian Catholic
-Homestead
-Cedar Park
-Leander
-Carmel
-Tarpon Springs
-Avon
-William Mason
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Post by cybrunette on Oct 26, 2023 10:27:24 GMT -6
Wait this is actually something I've been wanting to see a collection of for a while now. Great thread!
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Post by dallasmavericks on Oct 26, 2023 10:50:23 GMT -6
Post-finals split:
2017:
-Dobyns-Bennett
-Marian Catholic
-Union
-Round Rock
-Blue Springs
-Castle
-The Woodlands
-Carmel
-Broken Arrow
-Flower Mound
-Marcus
-Avon
2018:
-Homestead
-William Mason
-Prosper
-Dobyns-Bennett
-Jenks
-O'Fallon
-Blue Springs
-Broken Arrow
-Avon
-Tarpon Springs
-Carmel
-Wando
2019:
-William Mason
-The Woodlands
-Ayala
-Homestead
-Union
-Round Rock
-Claudia Taylor Johnson
-Avon
-Leander
-Hebron
-Vandegrift
-Carmel
2021:
-Ronald Reagan
-Dobyns-Bennett
-Vista Ridge
-William Mason
-Claudia Taylor Johnson
-Blue Springs
-The Woodlands
-Broken Arrow
-Marcus
-Avon
-Carmel
-Flower Mound
2022:
-Fishers
-Prosper
-Hendrickson
-Castle
-Southlake Carroll
-Brownsburg
-Broken Arrow
-Avon
-Dobyns-Bennett
-Tarpon Springs
-Carmel
-William Mason
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Post by dallasmavericks on Oct 26, 2023 11:02:41 GMT -6
2000's:
2000:
1 BELLBROOK H.S., OH
2 TARPON SPRINGS H.S., FL
3 PLYMOUTH-CANTON EDUC. PARK, MI
4 BROKEN ARROW H.S., OK
5 LAKE PARK H.S., IL
6 CENTERVILLE H.S., OH
7 MARIAN CATHOLIC H.S., IL
8 CARMEL H.S., IN
9 CENTER GROVE H.S., IN
10 UNION H.S., OK
11 NORTHMONT H.S., OH
12 LAWRENCE CENTRAL H.S., IN
2001:
1 Broken Arrow H.S.
2 Tarpon Springs H.S.
3 Lake Park H.S.
4 Kiski Area H.S.
5 Avon H.S.
6 Center Grove H.S.
7 Plymouth-Canton Ed. Park H.S.
8 Marian Catholic H.S.
9 Irmo H.S.
10 Carmel H.S.
11 L. D. Bell H.S.
12 Lawrence Central H.S.
2002:
1 Kennesaw Mtn H.S., GA
2 Carmel H.S., IN
3 Lake Park H.S., IL
4 Winston Churchill H.S., TX
5 Plymouth-Canton H.S., MI
6 Marian Catholic H.S., IL
7 The Woodlands H.S., TX
8 Center Grove H.S., IN
9 Stephen F. Austin H.S., TX
10 Ronald Reagan H.S., TX
11 Lawrence Central H.S., IN
12 Lassiter H.S., GA
2003:
1 Ronald Reagan H.S., TX
2 Center Grove H.S., IN
3 Lawrence Central H.S., IN
4 Westfield H.S., TX
5 Kennesaw Mountain H.S., GA
6 Kiski Area H.S., PA
7 Tarpon Springs H.S., FL
8 Centerville H.S., OH
9 Marian Catholic H.S., IL
10 Carmel H.S., IN
11 Avon H.S., IN
12 L.D. Bell H.S., TX
2004:
1 The Woodlands H.S., TX
2 Ayala H.S., CA
3 Marian Catholic H.S., IL
4 Lafayette H.S., KY
5 Stephen F. Austin H.S., TX
6 Carmel H.S., IN
7 Centerville H.S., OH
8 Lawrence Central H.S., IN
9 Ben Davis H.S., IN
10 Kennesaw Mountain H.S., GA
11 Avon H.S., IN
12 Plymount-Canton Ed. Park, MI
2005:
1 Ronald Reagan H.S., TX
2 Plymouth-Canton Ed. Park, MI
3 Lawrence Central H.S., IN
4 Marian Catholic H.S., IL
5 Centerville H.S., OH
6 Owasso H.S., OK
7 Carmel H.S., IN
8 Center Grove H.S., IN
9 L.D. Bell H.S., TX
10 Avon H.S., IN
11 Richland H.S.
12 Tarpon Springs H.S., FL
2006:
1 The Woodlands H.S., TX
2 Tarpon Springs H.S., FL
3 L.D. Bell H.S., TX
4 Avon H.S., IN
5 Carmel H.S., IN
6 Plymouth-Canton Ed. Park, MI
7 Broken Arrow H.S., OK
8 Marian Catholic H.S., IL
9 James Bowie H.S., TX
10 Winston Churchill H.S., TX
11 Lawrence Central H.S.
12 Kennesaw Mountain H.S., GA
2007:
1 Center Grove H.S., IN
2 L.D. Bell H.S., TX
3 Richland H.S., TX
4 Marian Catholic H.S., IL
5 Avon H.S., IN
6 Plymouth-Canton Ed. Park, MI
7 Lawrence Central H.S., IN
8 The Woodlands H.S., TX
9 Broken Arrow H.S., OK
10 Stephen F. Austin H.S., TX
11 Harrison H.S.
12 Carmel H.S., IN
2008:
-Plymouth-Canton
-LD Bell
-Broken Arrow
-Lafayette, LA
-Marian Catholic
-Ben Davis
-Kennesaw Mountain
-Centerville
-Carmel
-Lawrence Central
-Tarpon Springs
-Avon
2009:
-Broken Arrow
-James Bowie
-Center Grove
-LD Bell
-Marian Catholic
-Carmel
-The Woodlands
-Lawrence Central
-Marcus
-Wando
-Avon
-Centerville
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Post by boahistorybuff on Oct 26, 2023 11:53:32 GMT -6
The BOA results page has the GN performance order back to 1986. DM thebigtall for performance order for the years prior. As far as I know, 1979 Sylva-Webster was the only GN Champion band to be first in performance order in GN Finals. 1989 GN Champion Marian Catholic was second band in performance order. |
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Post by Jake W. on Oct 26, 2023 13:50:40 GMT -6
Very cool idea, @18saxes, and we all look forward to seeing your results!
One item I would encourage you to include, although I have no idea how you do this - expected placings or predicted placing neighborhoods prior to results. I have no idea how you do that - I am not really a stats guy - but without that weight, these results will be mostly irrelevant. For example, I always heard (prior to the rule change) that only x numbers of bands have ever won from performing first in GN Finals, and that that number was startlingly low (or maybe even zero?), BUT - how many bands COULD have won who performed in that first slot over the years? The info that would be much more relevant would be how many times a potential champion performed first or early, or a potential whatever place paired with whatever performance order. One data point that might be interesting would be the "next 8" (23rd - 30th in GN Prelims) and how their split performance order into 4 & 4 bookending Semis correlates to changes in placements from Prelims. Just some thoughts.
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Post by twhsalumniparent on Oct 26, 2023 16:00:17 GMT -6
Here is some info I have regarding Grand National Finals:
BOA Finals: Champions by
Performance Order
(1976-Present)
1: 79
2: 89, 07
3: 81, 11, 12, 13
4: 78, 82, 84, 03
5: 96, 99, 14
6: 77, 93, 98
7: 86, 94, 00, 05, 06, 10
8: 97, 04, 17, 21
9:
10: 83, 85, 91, 92, 16
11: 76, 80, 09, 18, 19, 22
12: 01, 02, 08, 15
13: 88, 95
14: 87, 90
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Post by 18Saxes on Oct 26, 2023 16:51:44 GMT -6
Thank you for all of the info and ideas! Very cool idea, @18saxes, and we all look forward to seeing your results! One item I would encourage you to include, although I have no idea how you do this - expected placings or predicted placing neighborhoods prior to results. I have no idea how you do that - I am not really a stats guy - but without that weight, these results will be mostly irrelevant. For example, I always heard (prior to the rule change) that only x numbers of bands have ever won from performing first in GN Finals, and that that number was startlingly low (or maybe even zero?), BUT - how many bands COULD have won who performed in that first slot over the years? The info that would be much more relevant would be how many times a potential champion performed first or early, or a potential whatever place paired with whatever performance order. One data point that might be interesting would be the "next 8" (23rd - 30th in GN Prelims) and how their split performance order into 4 & 4 bookending Semis correlates to changes in placements from Prelims. Just some thoughts. I definitely agree, I think in order to make this information the most interesting/relevant, I will need to look at several different factors. This will definitely take some time. Here is some info I have regarding Grand National Finals:
BOA Finals: Champions by
Performance Order
(1976-Present)
1: 79
2: 89, 07
3: 81, 11, 12, 13
4: 78, 82, 84, 03
5: 96, 99, 14
6: 77, 93, 98
7: 86, 94, 00, 05, 06, 10
8: 97, 04, 17, 21
9:
10: 83, 85, 91, 92, 16
11: 76, 80, 09, 18, 19, 22
12: 01, 02, 08, 15
13: 88, 95
14: 87, 90
Fascinating how no band who has performed in the 9th slot has ever been named champion. |
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Post by coleeich on Oct 26, 2023 20:08:52 GMT -6
I’ll be really interested in these results!
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Post by coleeich on Oct 26, 2023 20:09:52 GMT -6
Thank you for all of the info and ideas! Very cool idea, @18saxes, and we all look forward to seeing your results! One item I would encourage you to include, although I have no idea how you do this - expected placings or predicted placing neighborhoods prior to results. I have no idea how you do that - I am not really a stats guy - but without that weight, these results will be mostly irrelevant. For example, I always heard (prior to the rule change) that only x numbers of bands have ever won from performing first in GN Finals, and that that number was startlingly low (or maybe even zero?), BUT - how many bands COULD have won who performed in that first slot over the years? The info that would be much more relevant would be how many times a potential champion performed first or early, or a potential whatever place paired with whatever performance order. One data point that might be interesting would be the "next 8" (23rd - 30th in GN Prelims) and how their split performance order into 4 & 4 bookending Semis correlates to changes in placements from Prelims. Just some thoughts. I definitely agree, I think in order to make this information the most interesting/relevant, I will need to look at several different factors. This will definitely take some time. Here is some info I have regarding Grand National Finals:
BOA Finals: Champions by
Performance Order
(1976-Present)
1: 79
2: 89, 07
3: 81, 11, 12, 13
4: 78, 82, 84, 03
5: 96, 99, 14
6: 77, 93, 98
7: 86, 94, 00, 05, 06, 10
8: 97, 04, 17, 21
9:
10: 83, 85, 91, 92, 16
11: 76, 80, 09, 18, 19, 22
12: 01, 02, 08, 15
13: 88, 95
14: 87, 90
Fascinating how no band who has performed in the 9th slot has ever been named champion. The cursed 9th performance. This is a new superstition in my mind lol. |
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