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Post by servingcont1ra on Apr 6, 2023 11:43:30 GMT -6
Way too early predictions (only going off of confirmed bands) 1. Prosper (TX) 2. Southlake Carroll (TX) 3. Timber Creek (TX) 4. Robert E. Hendrickson (TX) 5. Walnut Grove (TX) 6. Waxahachie (TX) 7. Keller Central (TX) 8. Highland Park (TX) 9. McKinney Boyd (TX) 10. Rockwall (TX) 11. Aledo (TX) 12. Grapevine (TX) Walnut Grove in 5th?? That’s very bold. I know they are getting Wakelands director and kids from the other prosper schools, so honestly I have some high expectations for them. I feel like they’ll pull a M&G Johnson and absolutely dominate right out the gates
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Post by statechamp1239 on Apr 6, 2023 12:48:49 GMT -6
Walnut Grove in 5th?? That’s very bold. I know they are getting Wakelands director and kids from the other prosper schools, so honestly I have some high expectations for them. I feel like they’ll pull a M&G Johnson and absolutely dominate right out the gates M&G Johnson placed 16th in Austin in their inaugural BOA year they weren't the absolute dominate force out the gates. But you could say for ur example, Catawba Ridge (SC) placing 6th in Orlando in their first year or Independence (VA) who place 2nd in their first year in BOA both in their 3rd year of existence or Ronald Reagan (TX) who just placed top 3 in their first 2000 BOA with only 2 years of existence. Edit: Actually ur right able to win BOA Regional with 1 full season and not putting anything on year for COVID year is a "dominate force right out the gates"
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Post by yayband914 on Apr 6, 2023 13:06:21 GMT -6
I feel like they’ll pull a M&G Johnson and absolutely dominate right out the gates M&G Johnson placed 16th in Austin in their inaugural BOA year they weren't the absolute dominate force out the gates. But you could say for ur example, Catawba Ridge (SC) placing 6th in Orlando in their first year or Independence (VA) who place 2nd in their first year in BOA both in their 3rd year of existence or Ronald Reagan (TX) who just placed top 3 in their first 2000 BOA with only 2 years of existence. Or Weiss, considering their size and class. Didn’t they make St. Louis finals their first year of existence? Edit: it was their second year of existence.
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Post by hawknate14 on Apr 6, 2023 13:20:20 GMT -6
I feel like they’ll pull a M&G Johnson and absolutely dominate right out the gates M&G Johnson placed 16th in Austin in their inaugural BOA year they weren't the absolute dominate force out the gates. But you could say for ur example, Catawba Ridge (SC) placing 6th in Orlando in their first year or Independence (VA) who place 2nd in their first year in BOA both in their 3rd year of existence or Ronald Reagan (TX) who just placed top 3 in their first 2000 BOA with only 2 years of existence. Yeah, as a Virginia band kid, Indepedence has had a meteoric rise, my freshman year my band competed against them(my schools band is 60ish people normally), by my senior year they were contending with James Madison and Basset as the states standards bearer
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Post by abtwitch on Apr 6, 2023 16:16:25 GMT -6
Way too early predictions (only going off of confirmed bands) 1. Prosper (TX) 2. Southlake Carroll (TX) 3. Timber Creek (TX) 4. Robert E. Hendrickson (TX) 5. Walnut Grove (TX) 6. Waxahachie (TX) 7. Keller Central (TX) 8. Highland Park (TX) 9. McKinney Boyd (TX) 10. Rockwall (TX) 11. Aledo (TX) 12. Grapevine (TX) No McNorth in finals is bold considering their absolutely stunning season last year
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Post by nategriffin on Apr 8, 2023 16:46:58 GMT -6
Way too early predictions (only going off of confirmed bands) 1. Prosper (TX) 2. Southlake Carroll (TX) 3. Timber Creek (TX) 4. Robert E. Hendrickson (TX) 5. Walnut Grove (TX) 6. Waxahachie (TX) 7. Keller Central (TX) 8. Highland Park (TX) 9. McKinney Boyd (TX) 10. Rockwall (TX) 11. Aledo (TX) 12. Grapevine (TX) No McNorth in finals is bold considering their absolutely stunning season last year This is my list: 1. Waxahachie 2. Prosper 3. Hendrickson 4. Timber Creek 5. McKinney Boyd 6. Keller Central 7. Highland Park 8. McKinney North 9. Aledo 10. Walnut Grove 11. Rockwall 12. Southlake Carroll Boyds biggest issue BOA wise has been basic content, and next years show is a real game changer which will for sure boost them up, Highland Park didnt even make finals for their area (director changes and hard area still make their placement good but something to account for), and Norths show next year should be as cool as last year with another jazz show. Southlake is struggling severely so I wouldnt place high personally, and Walnut likely wont place *extremely* high, but confident in a finals appearance. Still very far out so grain of salt is implied.
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Post by abtwitch on Apr 8, 2023 17:59:13 GMT -6
I'll take a bite at predictions:
1. Waxahachie 2. Prosper 3. Hendrickson 4. Carroll 5. McKinney North 6. Timber Creek 7. Keller Central 8. Tom Glenn 9. Aledo 10. McKinney Boyd 11. Highland Park 12. Walnut Grove
Don't sleep on Tom Glenn, you will regret it.
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Post by supersound on Apr 8, 2023 18:07:06 GMT -6
No McNorth in finals is bold considering their absolutely stunning season last year This is my list: 1. Waxahachie 2. Prosper 3. Hendrickson 4. Timber Creek 5. McKinney Boyd 6. Keller Central 7. Highland Park 8. McKinney North 9. Aledo 10. Walnut Grove 11. Rockwall 12. Southlake Carroll Boyds biggest issue BOA wise has been basic content, and next years show is a real game changer which will for sure boost them up, Highland Park didnt even make finals for their area (director changes and hard area still make their placement good but something to account for), and Norths show next year should be as cool as last year with another jazz show. Southlake is struggling severely so I wouldnt place high personally, and Walnut likely wont place *extremely* high, but confident in a finals appearance. Still very far out so grain of salt is implied. Southlake is by any metric definitely not struggling severely.
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Post by es203 on Apr 9, 2023 7:49:48 GMT -6
No McNorth in finals is bold considering their absolutely stunning season last year This is my list: 1. Waxahachie 2. Prosper 3. Hendrickson 4. Timber Creek 5. McKinney Boyd 6. Keller Central 7. Highland Park 8. McKinney North 9. Aledo 10. Walnut Grove 11. Rockwall 12. Southlake Carroll Boyds biggest issue BOA wise has been basic content, and next years show is a real game changer which will for sure boost them up, Highland Park didnt even make finals for their area (director changes and hard area still make their placement good but something to account for), and Norths show next year should be as cool as last year with another jazz show. Southlake is struggling severely so I wouldnt place high personally, and Walnut likely wont place *extremely* high, but confident in a finals appearance. Still very far out so grain of salt is implied. What happened to SLC to go from GN finals to “struggling severely”
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Post by nategriffin on Apr 9, 2023 9:08:37 GMT -6
This is my list: 1. Waxahachie 2. Prosper 3. Hendrickson 4. Timber Creek 5. McKinney Boyd 6. Keller Central 7. Highland Park 8. McKinney North 9. Aledo 10. Walnut Grove 11. Rockwall 12. Southlake Carroll Boyds biggest issue BOA wise has been basic content, and next years show is a real game changer which will for sure boost them up, Highland Park didnt even make finals for their area (director changes and hard area still make their placement good but something to account for), and Norths show next year should be as cool as last year with another jazz show. Southlake is struggling severely so I wouldnt place high personally, and Walnut likely wont place *extremely* high, but confident in a finals appearance. Still very far out so grain of salt is implied. What happened to SLC to go from GN finals to “struggling severely” So going from a CLEAR 3rd at area and making finals at SMBC to not qualifying, and even if they advanced from a tie wouldnt realistically beat Duncanville which places them below the top 20, going from making 8th overall at DFW BOA to not even making finals, and placed below Wax, Prosper, Westwood, and Wylie East and was close to KCentral, Sachse, and Forney when the previous year placed consistently above these bands. While they did well at Grand Nats (which already had very little Texas representation in comparison to other years) and many of what they accomplished this season hasnt been done by many bands it wouldnt make sense to say their program is on an uphill, many people within the program have voiced frustrations with the programs direction and its not looking good for the program in the future unless something changes, so while many bands would be happy to say they are in their position, they are struggling in their current position and I dont see them realistically placing second, much less above McKinney North, KCent, Waxahachie, close to Prosper, Hendrickson, Highland Park, Timber Creek just based on previous scoring and how all of these programs are on an uphill through word of mouth and how feeders are improving. TO CLARIFY not saying they are bad at all, and could just be an off year and all of that could be wrong, but honestly I dont see them in top half this year just from what Ive seen, and just because they placed well in one competition doesnt mean they are doing fine on the standard they've established when so many other competitions show signs of a dip in quality of the program.
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Post by abtwitch on Apr 9, 2023 18:07:32 GMT -6
What happened to SLC to go from GN finals to “struggling severely” So going from a CLEAR 3rd at area and making finals at SMBC to not qualifying, and even if they advanced from a tie wouldnt realistically beat Duncanville which places them below the top 20, going from making 8th overall at DFW BOA to not even making finals, and placed below Wax, Prosper, Westwood, and Wylie East and was close to KCentral, Sachse, and Forney when the previous year placed consistently above these bands. While they did well at Grand Nats (which already had very little Texas representation in comparison to other years) and many of what they accomplished this season hasnt been done by many bands it wouldnt make sense to say their program is on an uphill, many people within the program have voiced frustrations with the programs direction and its not looking good for the program in the future unless something changes, so while many bands would be happy to say they are in their position, they are struggling in their current position and I dont see them realistically placing second, much less above McKinney North, KCent, Waxahachie, close to Prosper, Hendrickson, Highland Park, Timber Creek just based on previous scoring and how all of these programs are on an uphill through word of mouth and how feeders are improving. TO CLARIFY not saying they are bad at all, and could just be an off year and all of that could be wrong, but honestly I dont see them in top half this year just from what Ive seen, and just because they placed well in one competition doesnt mean they are doing fine on the standard they've established when so many other competitions show signs of a dip in quality of the program. There's still a lot of bands you have over them that even a struggling Carroll shouldn't ever have to worry about.
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Post by Subito Fortissimo on Apr 9, 2023 18:42:00 GMT -6
Its almost as if sometimes shows and the bands that perform them take the whole season to fully develop and hit their peak right at the end and sometimes they finish lower than expected at earlier competitions because they're going up against great programs. Almost...
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Post by vidal28rdg on Apr 9, 2023 19:17:34 GMT -6
What happened to SLC to go from GN finals to “struggling severely” So going from a CLEAR 3rd at area and making finals at SMBC to not qualifying, and even if they advanced from a tie wouldnt realistically beat Duncanville which places them below the top 20, going from making 8th overall at DFW BOA to not even making finals, and placed below Wax, Prosper, Westwood, and Wylie East and was close to KCentral, Sachse, and Forney when the previous year placed consistently above these bands. While they did well at Grand Nats (which already had very little Texas representation in comparison to other years) and many of what they accomplished this season hasnt been done by many bands it wouldnt make sense to say their program is on an uphill, many people within the program have voiced frustrations with the programs direction and its not looking good for the program in the future unless something changes, so while many bands would be happy to say they are in their position, they are struggling in their current position and I dont see them realistically placing second, much less above McKinney North, KCent, Waxahachie, close to Prosper, Hendrickson, Highland Park, Timber Creek just based on previous scoring and how all of these programs are on an uphill through word of mouth and how feeders are improving. TO CLARIFY not saying they are bad at all, and could just be an off year and all of that could be wrong, but honestly I dont see them in top half this year just from what Ive seen, and just because they placed well in one competition doesnt mean they are doing fine on the standard they've established when so many other competitions show signs of a dip in quality of the program. I think it’s safe to say that all the contests they went to where they didn’t place that well were simply very competitive, which BOA DFW and UIL Area B definitely were, rather than saying they struggled? Especially with a near top-half finish at Grand Nats, that doesn’t indicate “struggle” in the slightest, they have the institutional punch and know-how now to be consistently one of the better groups in the area. I would predict for them to have a top half placement with this contest being a little later on in the season, I don’t predict they’ll struggle at all, especially considering how ambitious they’re seeking to be, even when they’re not going to Grand Nats this year, Orlando, DFW, Prosper, St. Louis, and San Antonio for all their contests they’re doing, they’re seeking to show out and perform well. On the flip side too, it just goes to show how many quality programs there are in the area that often don’t really get their shine, or are otherwise very very fresh and new to the scene, if anyone went to Area C and Area B UIL last fall, you’re really able to see how **bonkers** a lot of these groups are and the depth that these contests have👀👀
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Post by nategriffin on Apr 9, 2023 21:12:20 GMT -6
Its almost as if sometimes shows and the bands that perform them take the whole season to fully develop and hit their peak right at the end and sometimes they finish lower than expected at earlier competitions because they're going up against great programs. Almost... Problem with that is that theyve always performed well against these “other great programs” and got beat by many that they havent lost too recently at all, it doesnt matter how competitive the comps are in this context cause, well that has never changed, with the contests Ive listed theyve always been this competitive and they simply did worse than normal, and if thats taken into account, why does this not happen with the Woodlands? Or Hebron? Or Marcus? Or Broken Arrow really, they could place high in Texas BOAs despite going to nats on a near yearly basis, same with Carmel or Avon, these bands perform at the second or the latest major competition in the season regularly but still place top 3 consistently in early competitions, and timelines arent realistically pushed back nearly as much for nats as say San Antonio, so unless the philosophy is not finishing the show until LATE season, they still shouldve qualified for state or place high early since its about what you have on the field, not what you DONT have. Im not really pressed about this Im just invested in the scaling of bands and seeing projections, Im putting alot of thought into this but Im not saying anyones opinions wrong, or that mines better, just trying to voice my idea on what could happen and why I disagree with a prediction, which could be right or wrong this early, its way to early to tell but its still interesting to talk about, so I aint gonna be sarcastic or anything because Im just telling my opinion, if you dont like it thats ok.
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Post by vidal28rdg on Apr 9, 2023 21:29:49 GMT -6
Its almost as if sometimes shows and the bands that perform them take the whole season to fully develop and hit their peak right at the end and sometimes they finish lower than expected at earlier competitions because they're going up against great programs. Almost... Problem with that is that theyve always performed well against these “other great programs” and got beat by many that they havent lost too recently at all, it doesnt matter how competitive the comps are in this context cause, well that has never changed, with the contests Ive listed theyve always been this competitive and they simply did worse than normal, and if thats taken into account, why does this not happen with the Woodlands? Or Hebron? Or Marcus? Or Broken Arrow really, they could place high in Texas BOAs despite going to nats on a near yearly basis, same with Carmel or Avon, these bands perform at the second or the latest major competition in the season regularly but still place top 3 consistently in early competitions, and timelines arent realistically pushed back nearly as much for nats as say San Antonio, so unless the philosophy is not finishing the show until LATE season, they still shouldve qualified for state or place high early since its about what you have on the field, not what you DONT have. Im not really pressed about this Im just invested in the scaling of bands and seeing projections, Im putting alot of thought into this but Im not saying anyones opinions wrong, or that mines better, just trying to voice my idea on what could happen and why I disagree with a prediction, which could be right or wrong this early, its way to early to tell but its still interesting to talk about, so I aint gonna be sarcastic or anything because Im just telling my opinion, if you dont like it thats ok. I’ll be frank and say that they aren’t on those program’s level, not that that’s a bad thing, they’re still in the midst of their upswing in the activity in recent times, it’s kinda weird to say they’ve “always beaten” so and so when they only so recently returned to UIL State, BOA finals, so on, and so forth. I see them only being on the upswing compared to where they were even 5 years ago. And good for them. Along with SLC, there’s plenty of bands in their area that can say the same, many have improved so much in this short time, the competition in the area has only increased, not decreased.
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Post by nategriffin on Apr 9, 2023 21:36:46 GMT -6
So going from a CLEAR 3rd at area and making finals at SMBC to not qualifying, and even if they advanced from a tie wouldnt realistically beat Duncanville which places them below the top 20, going from making 8th overall at DFW BOA to not even making finals, and placed below Wax, Prosper, Westwood, and Wylie East and was close to KCentral, Sachse, and Forney when the previous year placed consistently above these bands. While they did well at Grand Nats (which already had very little Texas representation in comparison to other years) and many of what they accomplished this season hasnt been done by many bands it wouldnt make sense to say their program is on an uphill, many people within the program have voiced frustrations with the programs direction and its not looking good for the program in the future unless something changes, so while many bands would be happy to say they are in their position, they are struggling in their current position and I dont see them realistically placing second, much less above McKinney North, KCent, Waxahachie, close to Prosper, Hendrickson, Highland Park, Timber Creek just based on previous scoring and how all of these programs are on an uphill through word of mouth and how feeders are improving. TO CLARIFY not saying they are bad at all, and could just be an off year and all of that could be wrong, but honestly I dont see them in top half this year just from what Ive seen, and just because they placed well in one competition doesnt mean they are doing fine on the standard they've established when so many other competitions show signs of a dip in quality of the program. I think it’s safe to say that all the contests they went to where they didn’t place that well were simply very competitive, which BOA DFW and UIL Area B definitely were, rather than saying they struggled? Especially with a near top-half finish at Grand Nats, that doesn’t indicate “struggle” in the slightest, they have the institutional punch and know-how now to be consistently one of the better groups in the area. I would predict for them to have a top half placement with this contest being a little later on in the season, I don’t predict they’ll struggle at all, especially considering how ambitious they’re seeking to be, even when they’re not going to Grand Nats this year, Orlando, DFW, Prosper, St. Louis, and San Antonio for all their contests they’re doing, they’re seeking to show out and perform well. On the flip side too, it just goes to show how many quality programs there are in the area that often don’t really get their shine, or are otherwise very very fresh and new to the scene, if anyone went to Area C and Area B UIL last fall, you’re really able to see how **bonkers** a lot of these groups are and the depth that these contests have👀👀 And this could very well be the case, my main issue with that though is they were about to not even make finals at Area B, finishing 11th in prelims, and I get that prelims results can and WILL be weird, but those judges look for who should qualify for state, and will generally keep the top and bottom half bands relatively the same, of course theres exceptions (Like KCent), but to me seeing 11th is odd and a pushed back timeline doesnt make that 100% reasonable since Prosper was technically in top half of Area C with a VERY hard show for their program visually which is usually what makes grand nats risky for state qualifying. Again could be wrong but I dont think nats would push a band down from 3rd to 7th, considering they proved to be strong in this area in the previous year, but Im not all knowing so could just be an off year.
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Post by vidal28rdg on Apr 9, 2023 22:03:46 GMT -6
I think it’s safe to say that all the contests they went to where they didn’t place that well were simply very competitive, which BOA DFW and UIL Area B definitely were, rather than saying they struggled? Especially with a near top-half finish at Grand Nats, that doesn’t indicate “struggle” in the slightest, they have the institutional punch and know-how now to be consistently one of the better groups in the area. I would predict for them to have a top half placement with this contest being a little later on in the season, I don’t predict they’ll struggle at all, especially considering how ambitious they’re seeking to be, even when they’re not going to Grand Nats this year, Orlando, DFW, Prosper, St. Louis, and San Antonio for all their contests they’re doing, they’re seeking to show out and perform well. On the flip side too, it just goes to show how many quality programs there are in the area that often don’t really get their shine, or are otherwise very very fresh and new to the scene, if anyone went to Area C and Area B UIL last fall, you’re really able to see how **bonkers** a lot of these groups are and the depth that these contests have👀👀 And this could very well be the case, my main issue with that though is they were about to not even make finals at Area B, finishing 11th in prelims, and I get that prelims results can and WILL be weird, but those judges look for who should qualify for state, and will generally keep the top and bottom half bands relatively the same, of course theres exceptions (Like KCent), but to me seeing 11th is odd and a pushed back timeline doesnt make that 100% reasonable since Prosper was technically in top half of Area C with a VERY hard show for their program visually which is usually what makes grand nats risky for state qualifying. Again could be wrong but I dont think nats would push a band down from 3rd to 7th, considering they proved to be strong in this area in the previous year, but Im not all knowing so could just be an off year. Area C has three of the TITANS of Texas marching band world in the last decade, we all know that, so it makes it hard for the rest of the bands in the area to compete so it’s hard to snatch the 1-2 spots that are left, and you see that the bands that beat up prosper for state(they ended up in 7th this past year too) have upped their game as well. I’m not concerned about prosper being on a downswing because they’ve been a consistently successful band for a while now. When you look at Area B, it’s home to some of the most CONSISTENT bands in the state, and even more so consistently good at UIL, Coppell, Keller, Waxahachie. L.D Bell and Duncanville, who’ve only recently missed out on UIL state due to some “downswings” that they’ve both recovered very nicely on, doing really well at State this past year. When you see how consistently Timber Creek has been in being “one place away” a tiebreaker away sometimes, all these bands are very consistent performers year after year. It’s honestly not that unexpected that Carroll missed out on State, it definitely didn’t surprise me. I was more surprised in Prosper missing out, I was able to see Area C finals in person and every band BROUGHT IT that night.
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Post by abtwitch on Apr 9, 2023 22:25:30 GMT -6
I think it’s safe to say that all the contests they went to where they didn’t place that well were simply very competitive, which BOA DFW and UIL Area B definitely were, rather than saying they struggled? Especially with a near top-half finish at Grand Nats, that doesn’t indicate “struggle” in the slightest, they have the institutional punch and know-how now to be consistently one of the better groups in the area. I would predict for them to have a top half placement with this contest being a little later on in the season, I don’t predict they’ll struggle at all, especially considering how ambitious they’re seeking to be, even when they’re not going to Grand Nats this year, Orlando, DFW, Prosper, St. Louis, and San Antonio for all their contests they’re doing, they’re seeking to show out and perform well. On the flip side too, it just goes to show how many quality programs there are in the area that often don’t really get their shine, or are otherwise very very fresh and new to the scene, if anyone went to Area C and Area B UIL last fall, you’re really able to see how **bonkers** a lot of these groups are and the depth that these contests have👀👀 And this could very well be the case, my main issue with that though is they were about to not even make finals at Area B, finishing 11th in prelims, and I get that prelims results can and WILL be weird, but those judges look for who should qualify for state, and will generally keep the top and bottom half bands relatively the same, of course theres exceptions (Like KCent), but to me seeing 11th is odd and a pushed back timeline doesnt make that 100% reasonable since Prosper was technically in top half of Area C with a VERY hard show for their program visually which is usually what makes grand nats risky for state qualifying. Again could be wrong but I dont think nats would push a band down from 3rd to 7th, considering they proved to be strong in this area in the previous year, but Im not all knowing so could just be an off year. Never read into Area results, especially prelims. They're virtually meaningless.
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Post by marimba11 on Apr 9, 2023 22:33:45 GMT -6
Isn’t Prosper’s director leaving this year? Or is that wakeland? Or both?
I think like others have said using UIL Area results as metrics isn’t usually a good idea. From what I have seen and heard they usually don’t match up to what happens at the Alamodome and even less so at GN.
Flower Mound beating Hebron and Vista Ridge beating Vandy in 2021 being some prime examples of Area weirdness. And let’s just say it again, we are talking about different sheets, different judges, and different performance factors from mid October shows to the final run of the season for comparison.
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Post by marimba11 on Apr 9, 2023 22:42:01 GMT -6
Another aspect of note for Carroll, is they really struggled in visual execution. VPI kept them out of the Bedford finals, and 27th in VPI and 31 in VPE really hurt them in GN prelims - obviously. Prosper being better in visual pretty much throughout the season.
I do also think SLC had their best run at finals.
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Post by vidal28rdg on Apr 9, 2023 22:45:58 GMT -6
Another aspect of note for Carroll, is they really struggled in visual execution. VPI kept them out of the Bedford finals, and 27th in VPI and 31 in VPE really hurt them in GN prelims - obviously. Prosper being better in visual pretty much throughout the season. I do also think SLC had their best run at finals. if you look at SLC’s area finals ordinals, their visual scores are what had them in the dance *ba dum tzzz* but their music scores kept them out It honestly doesn’t surprise me either, all the bands that made State from Area B are incredibly consistent in their music performance, besides mayyybe L.D Bell sometimes haha
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Post by supersound on Apr 10, 2023 0:47:59 GMT -6
Honestly nategriffin you do seem weirdly pressed in downplaying Southlakes accomplishments. They’re not a 20-14 bubble giant like other bands, but they’re strongly up there and hardly in shambles like you describe. Area C is probably the hardest area to make it to state out of (other than maybe Area D) so it’s understandable that a less than desirable prelims performance kept them out. Area judging at any level is also very weird. I think they’ll be fine, probably place somewhere around 11-7 at this regional without much issue. I don’t think they’ll have another finals miss again at least.
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Post by allthingschaotic on Apr 10, 2023 0:58:23 GMT -6
Isn’t Prosper’s director leaving this year? Or is that wakeland? Or both? Not sure about Prosper, but Wakeland's head director is leaving to start Walnut Grove's program (new Prosper ISD school.) Timber Creek's head director will move to Wakeland.
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Post by cybrunette on Apr 10, 2023 1:19:56 GMT -6
I'm just here for that Texas heat
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Post by nategriffin on Apr 10, 2023 7:33:59 GMT -6
Honestly nategriffin you do seem weirdly pressed in downplaying Southlakes accomplishments. They’re not a 20-14 bubble giant like other bands, but they’re strongly up there and hardly in shambles like you describe. Area C is probably the hardest area to make it to state out of (other than maybe Area D) so it’s understandable that a less than desirable prelims performance kept them out. Area judging at any level is also very weird. I think they’ll be fine, probably place somewhere around 11-7 at this regional without much issue. I don’t think they’ll have another finals miss again at least. Again not really pressed and for their accomplishments in context to a bands previous accomplishments and the expectations they hold will make certain accomplishments not nearly as significant, like for an easy example, saying Hebron makes state finals is much less of a “wow really?” factor as compared to say, Cy Fair as a band who while makes state comfortably is much less common to see in the top 12-14. Just seeing how many significant accomplishments Southlake comfortably earned in a previous year and now missing near completely cant just be blamed on nats. People felt the same once Drinkwater left Marcus, it was CRAZY how they were ONLY placing 10th at state finals after being unstoppable, which is still an amazing accomplishment for any band but, for different bands reaching that is a different expectation is all.
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Post by nategriffin on Apr 10, 2023 7:37:54 GMT -6
Isn’t Prosper’s director leaving this year? Or is that wakeland? Or both? Not sure about Prosper, but Wakeland's head director is leaving to start Walnut Grove's program (new Prosper ISD school.) Timber Creek's head director will move to Wakeland. I am curious who will replace Timber Creeks head position, they performed well this past year so I am curious to see how that effects them.
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Post by hewhowaits on Apr 10, 2023 8:27:31 GMT -6
I think it’s safe to say that all the contests they went to where they didn’t place that well were simply very competitive, which BOA DFW and UIL Area B definitely were, rather than saying they struggled? Especially with a near top-half finish at Grand Nats, that doesn’t indicate “struggle” in the slightest, they have the institutional punch and know-how now to be consistently one of the better groups in the area. I would predict for them to have a top half placement with this contest being a little later on in the season, I don’t predict they’ll struggle at all, especially considering how ambitious they’re seeking to be, even when they’re not going to Grand Nats this year, Orlando, DFW, Prosper, St. Louis, and San Antonio for all their contests they’re doing, they’re seeking to show out and perform well. On the flip side too, it just goes to show how many quality programs there are in the area that often don’t really get their shine, or are otherwise very very fresh and new to the scene, if anyone went to Area C and Area B UIL last fall, you’re really able to see how **bonkers** a lot of these groups are and the depth that these contests have👀👀 And this could very well be the case, my main issue with that though is they were about to not even make finals at Area B, finishing 11th in prelims, and I get that prelims results can and WILL be weird, but those judges look for who should qualify for state, and will generally keep the top and bottom half bands relatively the same, of course theres exceptions (Like KCent), but to me seeing 11th is odd and a pushed back timeline doesnt make that 100% reasonable since Prosper was technically in top half of Area C with a VERY hard show for their program visually which is usually what makes grand nats risky for state qualifying. Again could be wrong but I dont think nats would push a band down from 3rd to 7th, considering they proved to be strong in this area in the previous year, but Im not all knowing so could just be an off year. Southlake Carroll's 2022 production was much more BOA sheets friendly than UIL sheets friendly. That in and of itself goes a long way toward explaining the failure to make UIL Area finals. Add in the possibility that they had a particularly weak prelims run while others had relatively strong runs and you have SLC missing Area finals.
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Post by Subito Fortissimo on Apr 10, 2023 9:50:04 GMT -6
SLC's results prior to GN last Fall certainly raised a lot of eyebrows and had most everyone expecting they would end up no better than the 20s. But then they went and made finals and ended up the highest placing Texas band on top of that. No one falls backwards into GN finals, even in a year with a relatively weak lineup at the top. A band unexpectedly making finals at an early season regional could perhaps be considered a fluke of judging and inconsistent performances. Making GN finals, and especially achieving the result they did, is not a fluke.
Now there is nothing wrong with speculating that a band might fall down the order this next season. It happens all the time, especially in Texas where the middle-upper tier has always had a lot of placement volatility from year to year. The problem is in saying that SLC is "struggling severely" when we haven't even gotten to the end of the school year in which they made GN finals in their first attempt.
Let's look at the other side of the coin. Is M&G Johnson "struggling severely" after they missed GN finals despite having a pretty successful season prior to that?
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Post by abtwitch on Apr 10, 2023 10:06:40 GMT -6
And this could very well be the case, my main issue with that though is they were about to not even make finals at Area B, finishing 11th in prelims, and I get that prelims results can and WILL be weird, but those judges look for who should qualify for state, and will generally keep the top and bottom half bands relatively the same, of course theres exceptions (Like KCent), but to me seeing 11th is odd and a pushed back timeline doesnt make that 100% reasonable since Prosper was technically in top half of Area C with a VERY hard show for their program visually which is usually what makes grand nats risky for state qualifying. Again could be wrong but I dont think nats would push a band down from 3rd to 7th, considering they proved to be strong in this area in the previous year, but Im not all knowing so could just be an off year. Southlake Carroll's 2022 production was much more BOA sheets friendly than UIL sheets friendly. That in and of itself goes a long way toward explaining the failure to make UIL Area finals. Add in the possibility that they had a particularly weak prelims run while others had relatively strong runs and you have SLC missing Area finals. They did make finals because they took twelve. In finals, they jumped to 7th which was state alternate behind Coppell, Waxahachie, Timber Creek, Keller, L.D. Bell, and Duncanville (who they tied with, and then lost the tiebreaker). Also they were ahead of a quite a few strong groups like Lake Ridge, Keller Central, and James Martin (who they finished behind at BOA DFW earlier in the season).
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breg
Full Member
Posts: 32
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Post by breg on Apr 10, 2023 10:53:22 GMT -6
Honestly nategriffin you do seem weirdly pressed in downplaying Southlakes accomplishments. They’re not a 20-14 bubble giant like other bands, but they’re strongly up there and hardly in shambles like you describe. Area C is probably the hardest area to make it to state out of (other than maybe Area D) so it’s understandable that a less than desirable prelims performance kept them out. Area judging at any level is also very weird. I think they’ll be fine, probably place somewhere around 11-7 at this regional without much issue. I don’t think they’ll have another finals miss again at least. Again not really pressed and for their accomplishments in context to a bands previous accomplishments and the expectations they hold will make certain accomplishments not nearly as significant, like for an easy example, saying Hebron makes state finals is much less of a “wow really?” factor as compared to say, Cy Fair as a band who while makes state comfortably is much less common to see in the top 12-14. Just seeing how many significant accomplishments Southlake comfortably earned in a previous year and now missing near completely cant just be blamed on nats. People felt the same once Drinkwater left Marcus, it was CRAZY how they were ONLY placing 10th at state finals after being unstoppable, which is still an amazing accomplishment for any band but, for different bands reaching that is a different expectation is all. I understand what you’re trying to get at, but you have to realize the comparisons you’re making. At Area B you have bands like Coppell who has not missed state for literally three decades and has only recently begun to really shine as a DFW powerhouse (and does not seem to be stopping anytime soon). You have Keller who has consistently made UIL State finals and BOA SA finals for almost 10 years straight. You have L.D. Bell and Duncanville who have a long history of success and who are both on the path to rising back to some form of this success, and the list goes on. BOA DFW has all of these plus the Lewisville Big Three, which only increases the competitiveness. Southlake is a talented group who had a rough start and it’s not fair to completely through out the results of GN just based on bad results at two contests. This isn’t even taking into account performance times and other factors which may have affected their prelim run’s (which is where most of their “bad” placements have been). I think they will do well here, especially coming off the momentum of GN, but at the end of the day you can believe what you want.
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