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Post by hewhowaits on Aug 30, 2021 13:17:41 GMT -6
I love how difficult it gets to predict AA once you remove Tarpon haha Until just a few years ago, it was easy to default to Marian Catholic.
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Post by hewhowaits on Aug 30, 2021 13:23:19 GMT -6
I love how difficult it gets to predict AA once you remove Tarpon haha A lot depends on which day the bands are performing, too. It's happened countless times (in A, AA and AAA) where had a band performed on the other prelims day and scored the same as they did on their actual performance day, they would have advanced to semis. You could be 4th place overall in a class over both days and not advance. It is quite possible to be third in class for one panel and score higher than the top band by class on the other panel. Less likely than the fourth overall scenario, but certainly possible.
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Post by Uncle Baby Billy on Aug 30, 2021 13:25:20 GMT -6
Marian Catholic is the defending AA Champion, so still easy to default to IMO. I love how difficult it gets to predict AA once you remove Tarpon haha Until just a few years ago, it was easy to default to Marian Catholic.
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Post by principalagent on Aug 30, 2021 13:32:26 GMT -6
Marian Catholic is the defending AA Champion, so still easy to default to IMO. Until just a few years ago, it was easy to default to Marian Catholic. They almost weren't! it's been at least a decade since 2A didn't go to Tarpon or Marian and it almost went to Miamisburg (who was fantastic last year, for sure!).
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Post by ohioguy2 on Aug 30, 2021 13:50:34 GMT -6
I love how difficult it gets to predict AA once you remove Tarpon haha A lot depends on which day the bands are performing, too. It's happened countless times (in A, AA and AAA) where had a band performed on the other prelims day and scored the same as they did on their actual performance day, they would have advanced to semis. You could be 4th place overall in a class over both days and not advance. That said, I think all of these AA bands have a fair shot at advancement, whether by score, class placement or a lucky scheduling block. Easley H.S., SC Jenison H.S., MI Lake Hamilton H.S., AR Marian Catholic H.S., IL Miamisburg H.S., OH Morton H.S., IL (they are going to be GOOOOOD this year having seen some videos) Norwin H.S., PA I feel kinda bad excluding Greendale from the list, as they do try so hard and have often been very close, but with the additions of Easley and Norwin, I just don’t see them sliding in, unless 6 of these 7 groups all perform on the same day. Greenfield Central should also be very much in this conversation.
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Post by Uncle Baby Billy on Aug 30, 2021 14:00:15 GMT -6
Never say never, but it’s theirs to lose. Almost doesn’t advance. Marian Catholic is the defending AA Champion, so still easy to default to IMO. They almost weren't! it's been at least a decade since 2A didn't go to Tarpon or Marian and it almost went to Miamisburg (who was fantastic last year, for sure!).
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Post by Jake W. on Aug 30, 2021 14:01:50 GMT -6
Marian Catholic is the defending AA Champion, so still easy to default to IMO. They almost weren't! it's been at least a decade since 2A didn't go to Tarpon or Marian and it almost went to Miamisburg (who was fantastic last year, for sure!). Eh, I think 2019’s AA championship can only be viewed as Marian’s in the bag. Yes Miamisburg beat then in Prelims, but 28 hours apart in performance time (even though they were assessed by the same judging panel). Luckily, we got a back to back comparison in semis, which couldn’t have been a better comparison, and Miamisburg didn’t even top Marian in a subcaption, let alone a caption. I do think there are a ton of WONDERFUL aa groups, and I love Miamisburg. I’ll probably eat my words after not knowing what happened to them over 2020, but I think as long as Bimm as at the helm and Tarpon isn’t attending, Marian is the default AA champion at grand nats and a potential finalist (or at least assumed to be able to pop a few ordinals into the top 12 in semis) until proven otherwise.
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Post by yayband914 on Aug 30, 2021 14:42:38 GMT -6
A lot depends on which day the bands are performing, too. It's happened countless times (in A, AA and AAA) where had a band performed on the other prelims day and scored the same as they did on their actual performance day, they would have advanced to semis. You could be 4th place overall in a class over both days and not advance. That said, I think all of these AA bands have a fair shot at advancement, whether by score, class placement or a lucky scheduling block. Easley H.S., SC Jenison H.S., MI Lake Hamilton H.S., AR Marian Catholic H.S., IL Miamisburg H.S., OH Morton H.S., IL (they are going to be GOOOOOD this year having seen some videos) Norwin H.S., PA I feel kinda bad excluding Greendale from the list, as they do try so hard and have often been very close, but with the additions of Easley and Norwin, I just don’t see them sliding in, unless 6 of these 7 groups all perform on the same day. Greenfield Central should also be very much in this conversation. You’re totally right, I accidentally missed them when going down the list.
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Post by Allohak on Aug 30, 2021 15:21:08 GMT -6
I love how difficult it gets to predict AA once you remove Tarpon haha A lot depends on which panel the bands are performing, too. It's happened countless times (in A, AA and AAA) where had a band performed on the other prelims day and scored the same as they did on their actual performance day, they would have advanced to semis. You could be 4th place overall in a class over both days and not advance. That said, I think all of these AA bands have a fair shot at advancement, whether by score, class placement or a lucky scheduling block. Easley H.S., SC Greenfield-Central H.S., IN Jenison H.S., MI Lake Hamilton H.S., AR Marian Catholic H.S., IL Miamisburg H.S., OH Morton H.S., IL (they are going to be GOOOOOD this year having seen some videos) Norwin H.S., PA I feel kinda bad excluding Greendale from the list, as they do try so hard and have often been very close, but with the additions of Easley and Norwin, I just don’t see them sliding in, unless 7 of these 8 groups all perform on the same panel. FIFY
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Post by yayband914 on Aug 30, 2021 15:37:24 GMT -6
A lot depends on which panel the bands are performing, too. It's happened countless times (in A, AA and AAA) where had a band performed on the other prelims day and scored the same as they did on their actual performance day, they would have advanced to semis. You could be 4th place overall in a class over both days and not advance. That said, I think all of these AA bands have a fair shot at advancement, whether by score, class placement or a lucky scheduling block. Easley H.S., SC Greenfield-Central H.S., IN Jenison H.S., MI Lake Hamilton H.S., AR Marian Catholic H.S., IL Miamisburg H.S., OH Morton H.S., IL (they are going to be GOOOOOD this year having seen some videos) Norwin H.S., PA I feel kinda bad excluding Greendale from the list, as they do try so hard and have often been very close, but with the additions of Easley and Norwin, I just don’t see them sliding in, unless 7 of these 8 groups all perform on the same panel. FIFY What did we FFM?
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Post by Allohak on Aug 30, 2021 15:39:53 GMT -6
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Post by yayband914 on Aug 30, 2021 15:45:17 GMT -6
Oh, jeez. Old habits die hard lol.
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Post by marimba11 on Aug 30, 2021 19:33:09 GMT -6
The fact that Easley is mentioned on this list is quite remarkable to how they have grown over the years. I’d put them in the Ardrey Kell category of quality. Easley is even more of a small town than Duncan (SC)!
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Post by yayband914 on Aug 30, 2021 20:06:04 GMT -6
The fact that Easley is mentioned on this list is quite remarkable to how they have grown over the years. I’d put them in the Ardrey Kell category of quality. Easley is even more of a small town than Duncan (SC)! I remember being very impressed by them at the Johnson City regional in 2019. Actually think they placed a bit lower than they should have been (13th), no thanks to their visual GE score (24th overall, the anomaly), but they did have several finals-worthy subcaption placements.
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Post by hostrauser on Aug 31, 2021 8:19:01 GMT -6
For what it's worth, here are the power ratings each band had as of the conclusion of the 2019 season. My ratings system is a four-year rolling average (so, 2016-2019 here) with emphasis on the most recent season (2019).
87.5 Marian Catholic H.S., IL 84.6 Jenison H.S., MI 83.6 Miamisburg H.S., OH 83.1 Norwin H.S., PA 82.9 Morton H.S., IL 81.4 Lake Hamilton H.S., AR 80.4 Greenfield-Central H.S., IN 80.0 Greendale H.S., WI 78.6 Norton H.S., OH 76.1 Easley H.S., SC
Assuming both Miamisburg and Norwin are AA (they are usually right around the AA/AAA borderline), Easley is the 10th strongest AA band coming to Finals this year (11th, if Father Ryan is confirmed). So they will have their work cut out for them. But I love surprises and seeing new faces on Saturday mornings!
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Post by yayband914 on Aug 31, 2021 9:58:25 GMT -6
For what it's worth, here are the power ratings each band had as of the conclusion of the 2019 season. My ratings system is a four-year rolling average (so, 2016-2019 here) with emphasis on the most recent season (2019). 87.5 Marian Catholic H.S., IL 84.6 Jenison H.S., MI 83.6 Miamisburg H.S., OH 83.1 Norwin H.S., PA 82.9 Morton H.S., IL 81.4 Lake Hamilton H.S., AR 80.4 Greenfield-Central H.S., IN 80.0 Greendale H.S., WI 78.6 Norton H.S., OH 76.1 Easley H.S., SC Assuming both Miamisburg and Norwin are AA (they are usually right around the AA/AAA borderline), Easley is the 10th strongest AA band coming to Finals this year (11th, if Father Ryan is confirmed). So they will have their work cut out for them. But I love surprises and seeing new faces on Saturday mornings! I think you’re wayyy underselling Easley. They scored higher than that at a mid season regional in 2019. Hoping COVID hasn’t ravaged their program, because I think they’ll be a big surprise.
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Post by paddy on Aug 31, 2021 10:24:01 GMT -6
For what it's worth, here are the power ratings each band had as of the conclusion of the 2019 season. My ratings system is a four-year rolling average (so, 2016-2019 here) with emphasis on the most recent season (2019). 87.5 Marian Catholic H.S., IL 84.6 Jenison H.S., MI 83.6 Miamisburg H.S., OH 83.1 Norwin H.S., PA 82.9 Morton H.S., IL 81.4 Lake Hamilton H.S., AR 80.4 Greenfield-Central H.S., IN 80.0 Greendale H.S., WI 78.6 Norton H.S., OH 76.1 Easley H.S., SC Assuming both Miamisburg and Norwin are AA (they are usually right around the AA/AAA borderline), Easley is the 10th strongest AA band coming to Finals this year (11th, if Father Ryan is confirmed). So they will have their work cut out for them. But I love surprises and seeing new faces on Saturday mornings! I would love to see your background data and calculations.
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Post by bigblue2019 on Aug 31, 2021 10:32:10 GMT -6
For what it's worth, here are the power ratings each band had as of the conclusion of the 2019 season. My ratings system is a four-year rolling average (so, 2016-2019 here) with emphasis on the most recent season (2019). 87.5 Marian Catholic H.S., IL 84.6 Jenison H.S., MI 83.6 Miamisburg H.S., OH 83.1 Norwin H.S., PA 82.9 Morton H.S., IL 81.4 Lake Hamilton H.S., AR 80.4 Greenfield-Central H.S., IN 80.0 Greendale H.S., WI 78.6 Norton H.S., OH 76.1 Easley H.S., SC Assuming both Miamisburg and Norwin are AA (they are usually right around the AA/AAA borderline), Easley is the 10th strongest AA band coming to Finals this year (11th, if Father Ryan is confirmed). So they will have their work cut out for them. But I love surprises and seeing new faces on Saturday mornings! I think you’re wayyy underselling Easley. They scored higher than that at a mid season regional in 2019. Hoping COVID hasn’t ravaged their program, because I think they’ll be a big surprise. I appreciate the numerical value placed here. Though, this year will certainly be different, because no one really knows how Covid has affected different areas/communities, etc. Is Norton AA now? They were Class A in 2019? Of course we could always journey down the path of whataboutisms. From the rumor mill, Marian Catholic is having a difficult time, Norwin looks to be on the up and up, Miamisburg? I only see getting better. Just based on 2019 and expectations, the top 4 in AA should be Marian Catholic, Miamisburg, Greenfield Central, and Norwin. Dang it I wish North Hardin was coming this year. But we shall see...........
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Post by yayband914 on Aug 31, 2021 10:47:47 GMT -6
I think you’re wayyy underselling Easley. They scored higher than that at a mid season regional in 2019. Hoping COVID hasn’t ravaged their program, because I think they’ll be a big surprise. I appreciate the numerical value placed here. Though, this year will certainly be different, because no one really knows how Covid has affected different areas/communities, etc. Is Norton AA now? They were Class A in 2019? Of course we could always journey down the path of whataboutisms. From the rumor mill, Marian Catholic is having a difficult time, Norwin looks to be on the up and up, Miamisburg? I only see getting better. Just based on 2019 and expectations, the top 4 in AA should be Marian Catholic, Miamisburg, Greenfield Central, and Norwin. Dang it I wish North Hardin was coming this year. But we shall see........... Agree with your top 4, but I think Morton could edge out GC. They are sounding absolutely incredible for late August.
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Post by hostrauser on Aug 31, 2021 11:06:07 GMT -6
I think you’re wayyy underselling Easley. They scored higher than that at a mid season regional in 2019. Hoping COVID hasn’t ravaged their program, because I think they’ll be a big surprise. I could be! But I think you're wayyy overselling the impact of one regional with bloated scores from 2019. The scores at Johnson City last year were ridiculous. Bands that attended both Johnson City and Grand Nationals saw their scores plummet. Bands that attended Johnson City and Lynchburg two weeks later saw some score drops, too (and Lynchburg was ALSO over-scored). Estill County H.S., KY 79.175 at Johnson City Prelims 76.750 at Grand Nationals Prelims 77.800 at Grand Nationals Semifinals Ardrey Kell H.S., NC 80.350 at Johnson City Prelims 77.375 at Grand Nationals Prelims Hardin Valley Academy, TN 77.700 at Johnson City Prelims (10/12) 74.850 at Lynchburg Prelims (10/26) ...for comparison... James Madison H.S., VA 86.325 at Lynchburg Prelims 77.500 at Grand National Prelims 80.050 at Grand National Semifinals Easley scored only 63.00 at the Jacksonville AL regional in 2017 (12th) and 66.45 at the Powder Springs GA regional in 2016 (11th). I'm not ready to predict a GN Semis appearance for a band that hasn't even finished in the Top 10 at a regional in the past several years.
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Post by yayband914 on Aug 31, 2021 11:37:58 GMT -6
I could be! But I think you're wayyy overselling the impact of one regional with bloated scores from 2019. The scores at Johnson City last year were ridiculous. Bands that attended both Johnson City and Grand Nationals saw their scores plummet. Bands that attended Johnson City and Lynchburg two weeks later saw some score drops, too (and Lynchburg was ALSO over-scored). Estill County H.S., KY 79.175 at Johnson City Prelims 76.750 at Grand Nationals Prelims 77.800 at Grand Nationals Semifinals Ardrey Kell H.S., NC 80.350 at Johnson City Prelims 77.375 at Grand Nationals Prelims Hardin Valley Academy, TN 77.700 at Johnson City Prelims (10/12) 74.850 at Lynchburg Prelims (10/26) ...for comparison... James Madison H.S., VA 86.325 at Lynchburg Prelims 77.500 at Grand National Prelims 80.050 at Grand National Semifinals Easley scored only 63.00 at the Jacksonville AL regional in 2017 (12th) and 66.45 at the Powder Springs GA regional in 2016 (11th). I'm not ready to predict a GN Semis appearance for a band that hasn't even finished in the Top 10 at a regional in the past several years. Lol alright, I see your point, I’ll shut up now. 😆
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Post by TXHillCountryBands on Aug 31, 2021 11:41:58 GMT -6
I could be! But I think you're wayyy overselling the impact of one regional with bloated scores from 2019. The scores at Johnson City last year were ridiculous. Bands that attended both Johnson City and Grand Nationals saw their scores plummet. Bands that attended Johnson City and Lynchburg two weeks later saw some score drops, too (and Lynchburg was ALSO over-scored). Estill County H.S., KY 79.175 at Johnson City Prelims 76.750 at Grand Nationals Prelims 77.800 at Grand Nationals Semifinals Ardrey Kell H.S., NC 80.350 at Johnson City Prelims 77.375 at Grand Nationals Prelims Hardin Valley Academy, TN 77.700 at Johnson City Prelims (10/12) 74.850 at Lynchburg Prelims (10/26) ...for comparison... James Madison H.S., VA 86.325 at Lynchburg Prelims 77.500 at Grand National Prelims 80.050 at Grand National Semifinals Easley scored only 63.00 at the Jacksonville AL regional in 2017 (12th) and 66.45 at the Powder Springs GA regional in 2016 (11th). I'm not ready to predict a GN Semis appearance for a band that hasn't even finished in the Top 10 at a regional in the past several years. 🎤
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Post by yayband914 on Aug 31, 2021 11:47:43 GMT -6
I could be! But I think you're wayyy overselling the impact of one regional with bloated scores from 2019. The scores at Johnson City last year were ridiculous. Bands that attended both Johnson City and Grand Nationals saw their scores plummet. Bands that attended Johnson City and Lynchburg two weeks later saw some score drops, too (and Lynchburg was ALSO over-scored). Estill County H.S., KY 79.175 at Johnson City Prelims 76.750 at Grand Nationals Prelims 77.800 at Grand Nationals Semifinals Ardrey Kell H.S., NC 80.350 at Johnson City Prelims 77.375 at Grand Nationals Prelims Hardin Valley Academy, TN 77.700 at Johnson City Prelims (10/12) 74.850 at Lynchburg Prelims (10/26) ...for comparison... James Madison H.S., VA 86.325 at Lynchburg Prelims 77.500 at Grand National Prelims 80.050 at Grand National Semifinals Easley scored only 63.00 at the Jacksonville AL regional in 2017 (12th) and 66.45 at the Powder Springs GA regional in 2016 (11th). I'm not ready to predict a GN Semis appearance for a band that hasn't even finished in the Top 10 at a regional in the past several years. 🎤 🎤⬇️ FIFY! 😜
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Post by marimba11 on Aug 31, 2021 11:55:04 GMT -6
LOL the Easley program has good bones, but they do have a lot to prove
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Post by mantistoboggn on Aug 31, 2021 12:20:28 GMT -6
Confirmed: Cleveland H.S, NC
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Post by abtwitch on Aug 31, 2021 12:37:32 GMT -6
Confirmed: Cleveland H.S, NC This one has me excited, if they continue on their current trajectory they could really surprise people with how they place. It wouldn't completely shock me if they lock in a top 11 spot depending on panel strength.
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Post by principalagent on Aug 31, 2021 13:07:56 GMT -6
Confirmed: Cleveland H.S, NC This one has me excited, if they continue on their current trajectory they could really surprise people with how they place. It wouldn't completely shock me if they lock in a top 11 spot depending on panel strength. Is West Johnston the last NC band to get into the Top 22 overall? Or has one of the Cary bands done it since?
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Post by Allohak on Aug 31, 2021 13:13:35 GMT -6
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Post by mantistoboggn on Aug 31, 2021 13:17:51 GMT -6
This one has me excited, if they continue on their current trajectory they could really surprise people with how they place. It wouldn't completely shock me if they lock in a top 11 spot depending on panel strength. Is West Johnston the last NC band to get into the Top 22 overall? Or has one of the Cary bands done it since? Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but yes I believe West Johnston was the last NC band to get into the Top 22 (19th in 2009).
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Post by yayband914 on Aug 31, 2021 13:29:16 GMT -6
Is West Johnston the last NC band to get into the Top 22 overall? Or has one of the Cary bands done it since? Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but yes I believe West Johnston was the last NC band to get into the Top 22 (19th in 2009). Bump.
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