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Post by marimba11 on Sept 16, 2019 15:14:31 GMT -6
I think Center Grove is definitely a must-watch this season in terms of predicting, They always get extremely good at the end of the season, and I think this year will be no exception. Agreed on Center grove. They were a joy to watch last season at semis. Definitely a late season bloomer though
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Post by thewho on Sept 18, 2019 10:05:55 GMT -6
I think Center Grove is definitely a must-watch this season in terms of predicting, They always get extremely good at the end of the season, and I think this year will be no exception. Agreed on Center grove. They were a joy to watch last season at semis. Definitely a late season bloomer though Center Grove didn't really quite fall under the late bloomer label- more like "figured it out at the last minute". Center Grove started out pretty strong, but began faltering a bit as they added the last few portions of their show around week 5 (at their invitational). Regionals a week afterwards wasn't that much better either (though it seemed that they didn't care too much per se). The show was STILL rough at Indy Super- this was where I think they threw everything in at the last minute. 2 weeks later, they're actually doing okay at state finals, but a dumb mistake with their prop caused a ton of people to fall. That was a pretty big black mark on an otherwise decent performance. It wasnt until Grand Nats semis that CG performed exceedingly well for once. I don't see that happening this year- CG was on fire last weekend and it only looks to improve greatly as the season progresses.
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Post by 18Saxes on Sept 29, 2019 22:38:40 GMT -6
Predictions again after seeing a lot more videos. They changed pretty drastically. I’ll be updating my predictions at minimum every Saturday/Sunday (Maybe technically very early Monday)
1. Hebron 2. Vandegrift 3. Carmel 4. Avon 5. Leander 6. Claudia Taylor Johnson 7. Homestead 8. The Woodlands 9. William Mason 10. Ayala 11. Center Grove 12. Park Vista
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Post by OldSchoolTrumpet on Sept 30, 2019 8:06:21 GMT -6
Finalist contenders. I want to say that the following list includes every band that would seem to have a legitimate chance at finals. Harrison and Ayala are on here based on history rather than anything I've seen this year. I'm leaving off long shots like PCEP, Fishers, and Jenison as I really don't think they'll realistically have a chance with this group. I think these 16 are the discussion. We'd need to eliminate 4.
Avon H.S., IN Ayala H.S., CA Carmel H.S., IN Center Grove H.S., IN Claudia Taylor Johnson H.S., TX Harrison H.S., GA Hebron H.S., TX Homestead H.S., IN Leander H.S., TX Marian Catholic H.S., IL Park Vista H.S., FL Round Rock H.S., TX The Woodlands H.S., TX Union H.S., OK Vandegrift H.S., TX William Mason H.S., OH.
Today:
Almost assured:
Avon Carmel CTJ Hebron Leander The Woodlands Vandergrift William-Mason
Higher Bubble 4:
Homestead Round Rock Union Park Vista
Lower Bubble 4
Ayala Center Grove Marian Catholic Harrison
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Post by Jake W. on Sept 30, 2019 11:40:51 GMT -6
Some personal addendums, OldSchoolTrumpet ---
First, I think we should all be looking at it as 17 potential Finalists, adding Rockford to your list. I'm curious to see whether last year's results ending result was a flash in the pan or legit (I believe they were placed a little high). But, at the end of the day, they currently haven't competed at any BOA event this season, and their ending placement from last season still rings imposingly. They were 14th at Semis last year, less than a point away from O'Fallon in 12th and ahead of Marian & American Fork. I'm comfortable placing them in the lower bubble, but they should be in the conversation up until the point that they exclude themselves, if that happens.
On that note, I'm dubious of Round Rock's chances and your placement of them in the higher bubble at this point (you're nowhere near alone). They do not appear to be the same RR that attended GN in 13/15/17. They dropped hard last year --- 12 spots and over 4 points out of Finals at SA --- and I probably would have placed them around Lockport/Bentonville/North Hardin/Kennesaw in the mid-20s had they attended last year's GN (just my own speculation, of course). That was after they had started their 2018 season making BOA Austin Finals, by the way...a task they failed to achieve this past weekend for the first time since entering competition on the national stage. They are still in the conversation, of course, because of their incredible musical abilities, but at this point I'd place my bets on Park Vista, Ayala (especially with their Rosie Queen pick up), Center Grove, Marian, & potentially even Union having better shots at making Finals.
I'm still curious to see what Harrison pulls out this year. They've had a few rougher seasons (by their standards) since the director changes, but showed glimpses of their former greatness last season when taking Music Ensemble over Wando in both Prelims & Finals at Powder Springs. I'm still doubting that they'll make a serious bid for Finals, but excited and hopeful that they'll prove me wrong as they rise back up.
One more note: at this point early in the season, I think it's fair to include the long shots, particularly Fishers, North Hardin, Lawrence Township, Ben Davis, & PCEP, just since there's still a whole season left and who knows how these groups will clean up. I'm fine with keeping them all in the long shots category, but they're all groups who will be in Semis, and who could all at the very least knock out a unit or two in the lower Finals bubble tier.
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Post by dallasman on Sept 30, 2019 12:01:27 GMT -6
Finalist contenders. I want to say that the following list includes every band that would seem to have a legitimate chance at finals. Harrison and Ayala are on here based on history rather than anything I've seen this year. I'm leaving off long shots like PCEP, Fishers, and Jenison as I really don't think they'll realistically have a chance with this group. I think these 16 are the discussion. We'd need to eliminate 4. Avon H.S., IN Ayala H.S., CA Carmel H.S., IN Center Grove H.S., IN Claudia Taylor Johnson H.S., TX Harrison H.S., GA Hebron H.S., TX Homestead H.S., IN Leander H.S., TX Marian Catholic H.S., IL Park Vista H.S., FL Round Rock H.S., TX The Woodlands H.S., TX Union H.S., OK Vandegrift H.S., TX William Mason H.S., OH. Today: Almost assured: Avon Carmel CTJ Hebron Leander The Woodlands Vandergrift William-Mason Higher Bubble 4: Homestead Round Rock Union Park Vista Lower Bubble 4 Ayala Center Grove Marian Catholic Harrison Agree with the eight slots. Have no idea how anyone can even remotely predict the Next 8 in tiers until more shows are on the field and begin to mature, especially 1) a band who has never made finals 2) bands who have consistently missed finals somehow having the edge over some bands who have been more reliable, etc. Interesting logic.
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Post by OldSchoolTrumpet on Sept 30, 2019 12:08:02 GMT -6
Finalist contenders. I want to say that the following list includes every band that would seem to have a legitimate chance at finals. Harrison and Ayala are on here based on history rather than anything I've seen this year. I'm leaving off long shots like PCEP, Fishers, and Jenison as I really don't think they'll realistically have a chance with this group. I think these 16 are the discussion. We'd need to eliminate 4. Avon H.S., IN Ayala H.S., CA Carmel H.S., IN Center Grove H.S., IN Claudia Taylor Johnson H.S., TX Harrison H.S., GA Hebron H.S., TX Homestead H.S., IN Leander H.S., TX Marian Catholic H.S., IL Park Vista H.S., FL Round Rock H.S., TX The Woodlands H.S., TX Union H.S., OK Vandegrift H.S., TX William Mason H.S., OH. Today: Almost assured: Avon Carmel CTJ Hebron Leander The Woodlands Vandergrift William-Mason Higher Bubble 4: Homestead Round Rock Union Park Vista Lower Bubble 4 Ayala Center Grove Marian Catholic Harrison Agree with the eight slots. Have no idea how anyone can even remotely predict the Next 8 in tiers until more shows are on the field and begin to mature, especially 1) a band who has never made finals 2) bands who have consistently missed finals somehow having the edge over some bands who have been more reliable, etc. Interesting logic. Which groups that have consistently missed finals do I have over more consistent groups? Park Vista is about the only one I see here.
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Post by 18Saxes on Sept 30, 2019 12:25:54 GMT -6
OldSchoolTrumpet
Switch Ayala and Round Rock, then I 100% agree.
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Post by TeamIndiana on Sept 30, 2019 12:28:12 GMT -6
Finalist contenders. I want to say that the following list includes every band that would seem to have a legitimate chance at finals. Harrison and Ayala are on here based on history rather than anything I've seen this year. I'm leaving off long shots like PCEP, Fishers, and Jenison as I really don't think they'll realistically have a chance with this group. I think these 16 are the discussion. We'd need to eliminate 4. Avon H.S., IN Ayala H.S., CA Carmel H.S., IN Center Grove H.S., IN Claudia Taylor Johnson H.S., TX Harrison H.S., GA Hebron H.S., TX Homestead H.S., IN Leander H.S., TX Marian Catholic H.S., IL Park Vista H.S., FL Round Rock H.S., TX The Woodlands H.S., TX Union H.S., OK Vandegrift H.S., TX William Mason H.S., OH. Today: Almost assured: Avon Carmel CTJ Hebron Leander The Woodlands Vandergrift William-Mason Higher Bubble 4: Homestead Round Rock Union Park Vista Lower Bubble 4 Ayala Center Grove Marian Catholic Harrison I like this list! My list also includes your 8 locks along with: Homestead Union Park Vista Ayala I'm sure it will change again in a few weeks.
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Post by dallasman on Sept 30, 2019 13:25:25 GMT -6
Agree with the eight slots. Have no idea how anyone can even remotely predict the Next 8 in tiers until more shows are on the field and begin to mature, especially 1) a band who has never made finals 2) bands who have consistently missed finals somehow having the edge over some bands who have been more reliable, etc. Interesting logic. Which groups that have consistently missed finals do I have over more consistent groups? Park Vista is about the only one I see here. Union has missed several times.. Park Vista has not yet made one.. Homestead has missed recently.... Marian Catholic (only missed one finals EVER) was within a point of finals last year as was Center Grove. Ayala and Round Rock are no better or worse than the groups in this general tier. Not sure about Harrison, but assuming based on name recognition alone is the reason they are even in the conversation. I just don't understand the logic of tiers in September, based off of a combination of name recognition and whether or band happened to be judged high enough in one round in one year. Not every program has to fall off of a cliff because they don't make finals on a given year. We've seen Broken Arrow, Center Grove and others MISS finals and make amazing comebacks. It's your opinion so I suppose that's all it is -- without any data or science to support -- but think tiering is curious since there are far more aspects to a program (rep., staff, history) that can predict future success or probability of success in late September. Wondering how you ended up organizing these tiers. Not a criticism but curious.
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Post by OldSchoolTrumpet on Sept 30, 2019 14:01:16 GMT -6
Some personal addendums, OldSchoolTrumpet --- First, I think we should all be looking at it as 17 potential Finalists, adding Rockford to your list. I'm curious to see whether last year's results ending result was a flash in the pan or legit (I believe they were placed a little high). But, at the end of the day, they currently haven't competed at any BOA event this season, and their ending placement from last season still rings imposingly. They were 14th at Semis last year, less than a point away from O'Fallon in 12th and ahead of Marian & American Fork. I'm comfortable placing them in the lower bubble, but they should be in the conversation up until the point that they exclude themselves, if that happens. On that note, I'm dubious of Round Rock's chances and your placement of them in the higher bubble at this point (you're nowhere near alone). They do not appear to be the same RR that attended GN in 13/15/17. They dropped hard last year --- 12 spots and over 4 points out of Finals at SA --- and I probably would have placed them around Lockport/Bentonville/North Hardin/Kennesaw in the mid-20s had they attended last year's GN (just my own speculation, of course). That was after they had started their 2018 season making BOA Austin Finals, by the way...a task they failed to achieve this past weekend for the first time since entering competition on the national stage. They are still in the conversation, of course, because of their incredible musical abilities, but at this point I'd place my bets on Park Vista, Ayala (especially with their Rosie Queen pick up), Center Grove, Marian, & potentially even Union having better shots at making Finals. I'm still curious to see what Harrison pulls out this year. They've had a few rougher seasons (by their standards) since the director changes, but showed glimpses of their former greatness last season when taking Music Ensemble over Wando in both Prelims & Finals at Powder Springs. I'm still doubting that they'll make a serious bid for Finals, but excited and hopeful that they'll prove me wrong as they rise back up. One more note: at this point early in the season, I think it's fair to include the long shots, particularly Fishers, North Hardin, Lawrence Township, Ben Davis, & PCEP, just since there's still a whole season left and who knows how these groups will clean up. I'm fine with keeping them all in the long shots category, but they're all groups who will be in Semis, and who could all at the very least knock out a unit or two in the lower Finals bubble tier. Yeah, I missed Rockford. They just weren't on my radar. Not sure about PCEP. I saw them in Toldeo and it just didn't strike me as a GN Finalist candidate show, especially losing to Carroll and a being good 5 points behind Homestead who themselves are a bubble band. Round Rock? I'd never count out a major Texas group in a competition where music counts for so much. Marian is a complete wildcard to me. I've been on the page that they should probably have missed in '17 too, but now having actually missed last year I think the door is open for that to continue. But I could also see them rebound. I read zero into the result last weekend, but there are so many groups who have elevated their game that I'm not sure Marian can match it. Now watch as they finish 6th this year. Is Wes Cartwright still involved with Harrison?
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Post by TeamIndiana on Sept 30, 2019 14:01:29 GMT -6
Which groups that have consistently missed finals do I have over more consistent groups? Park Vista is about the only one I see here. Union has missed several times.. Park Vista has not yet made one.. Homestead has missed recently.... Marian Catholic (only missed one finals EVER) was within a point of finals last year as was Center Grove. Ayala and Round Rock are no better or worse than the groups in this general tier. Not sure about Harrison, but assuming based on name recognition alone is the reason they are even in the conversation. I just don't understand the logic of tiers in September, based off of a combination of name recognition and whether or band happened to be judged high enough in one round in one year. Not every program has to fall off of a cliff because they don't make finals on a given year. We've seen Broken Arrow, Center Grove and others MISS finals and make amazing comebacks. It's your opinion so I suppose that's all it is -- without any data or science to support -- but think tiering is curious since there are far more aspects to a program (rep., staff, history) that can predict future success or probability of success in late September. Wondering how you ended up organizing these tiers. Not a criticism but curious. But you used the word CONSISTENTLY. That would mean missing more times than making it in. Of course you both are entitled to your opinion but overall I don't think that OldSchoolTrumpet is off the mark with his list and I think most would agree with him. I mean for reference Round Rock hasn't missed in the last 10 years, Marian and Homestead have only missed finals once.
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Post by principalagent on Sept 30, 2019 15:12:50 GMT -6
My understanding is that Harrison moved on from Wes, fwiw.
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Post by marimba11 on Sept 30, 2019 16:36:44 GMT -6
Harrison I believe now works with Michael Martin, Will Pitts still might write their music but wes is no longer with them as of last season. I think they have a good chance of finals but look what happened to Kennesaw Mountain- too early to tell.
Don’t forget James F Byrnes! They’re a monster this season, there may or may not be a video of them somewhere in the internet under their band nick name...😊
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Post by 18Saxes on Oct 7, 2019 11:32:23 GMT -6
Forgot to post this weekend, but here are updated predictions.
1. Vandegrift 2. Carmel 3. Avon 4. Hebron 5. Claudia Taylor Johnson 6. Leander 7. Homestead 8. William Mason 9. Ayala 10. The Woodlands 11. Center Grove 12. Centerville
Music: Vandegrift Visual: Avon General Effect: Carmel
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Post by Allohak on Oct 7, 2019 11:41:27 GMT -6
Having seen almost everyone:
1. Hebron (M) 2. Carmel (V) 3. Vandegrift (GE) 4. Avon 5. Leander 6. Wm Mason 7. CTJ 8. Homestead 9. The Woodlands 10. Park Vista 11. Union 12. Ayala
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Post by cinnamonpromenade on Oct 7, 2019 14:27:21 GMT -6
Rumor has it that James Madison (VA) will now be attending.
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Post by tpetdad304 on Oct 7, 2019 14:47:44 GMT -6
This is how I believe finals will pan out:
1. Vandegrift - GE 2. Hebron - Music 3. Carmel - Visual 4. Leander 5. Avon 6. Claudia Taylor Johnson 7. Homestead 8. William Mason 9. The Woodlands 10. Park Vista 11. Round Rock 12. Union
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Post by secret on Oct 7, 2019 17:05:45 GMT -6
Rumor has it that James Madison (VA) will now be attending. Source? They could make a splash here. It would be very exciting to have them represent!
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Post by northbanddad on Oct 9, 2019 11:01:22 GMT -6
I've been hearing of Rosemount MN potentially attending. If not this year, they're planning on it next year. I hope they do.
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Post by synthpatch14 on Oct 9, 2019 18:11:28 GMT -6
Scoop: James Madison, VA will be going to GN this year
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Post by secret on Oct 9, 2019 20:44:49 GMT -6
Scoop: James Madison, VA will be going to GN this year Exciting. The last time they went in 2014, they barely missed semi-finals. They're a much, much better band now. Definitely a strong contender for semis. I could see them beating some bands that you would not expect them to be able to beat...
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Post by thewho on Oct 9, 2019 21:05:48 GMT -6
Scoop: James Madison, VA will be going to GN this year That's awesome. Do you know what prompted them to go this year despite a late sign-up?
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Post by Allohak on Oct 9, 2019 21:45:44 GMT -6
Scoop: James Madison, VA will be going to GN this year That's awesome. Do you know what prompted them to go this year despite a late sign-up? Maybe their regional win?
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Post by marimba11 on Oct 9, 2019 22:09:23 GMT -6
That's awesome. Do you know what prompted them to go this year despite a late sign-up? Maybe their regional win? Probably, a la Dobyns Bennett 2013
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Post by srv1084 on Oct 9, 2019 22:51:38 GMT -6
Maybe their regional win? Probably, a la Dobyns Bennett 2013 American Fork was also a late sign-up one year after winning a regional. I'm always worried about bands suffering disappointment when signing up late, because it's often on the heels of having done well at a competition. Hopefully Madison can buck the trend and make it solidly into semis.
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Post by marimba11 on Oct 9, 2019 22:58:18 GMT -6
Probably, a la Dobyns Bennett 2013 American Fork was also a late sign-up one year after winning a regional. I'm always worried about bands suffering disappointment when signing up late, because it's often on the heels of having done well at a competition. Hopefully Madison can buck the trend and make it solidly into semis. True. But going to grand nationals is always an educational experience for the kids no matter what place they get. As long as they go with that in mind they’ll be fine. Excited for them!
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Post by Jake W. on Oct 9, 2019 23:28:11 GMT -6
Probably, a la Dobyns Bennett 2013 American Fork was also a late sign-up one year after winning a regional. I'm always worried about bands suffering disappointment when signing up late, because it's often on the heels of having done well at a competition. Hopefully Madison can buck the trend and make it solidly into semis. I do tend to agree with you a bit having been around this activity for a few years now --- we've seen it before, and although I imagine James Madison will be a pretty safe bet for Semis, I would hope they're not going with the idea of a potential Finals shot after their recent regional win. That said, I'm sure that's not the case. James Madison has been rock solid for a good decade now in the BOA scene, and I've been anxious for them to try their hand at GN again. For the record, they were less than a point out of Semis in 2014, and have grown as a band since then. I also thought they fell prey in 2014 to the often-seen Texas problem of over-designing/over-complicating a show on a first trip to GN and coming up with something sterile and less exciting than the shows or demand that rocketed x band to success in the first place. This year, they already have the design in place --- maybe they thought "damn, we've got a great show & group of kids this year, let's zip up to Indy and give it another shot!". I think that alone would be more than enough reason to sign up late.
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Post by Allohak on Oct 10, 2019 0:52:36 GMT -6
Would really love to see Camdenton and/or Rosemount join the fray after their strong showings so far this season
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Post by marimba11 on Oct 10, 2019 1:14:15 GMT -6
American Fork was also a late sign-up one year after winning a regional. I'm always worried about bands suffering disappointment when signing up late, because it's often on the heels of having done well at a competition. Hopefully Madison can buck the trend and make it solidly into semis. I do tend to agree with you a bit having been around this activity for a few years now --- we've seen it before, and although I imagine James Madison will be a pretty safe bet for Semis, I would hope they're not going with the idea of a potential Finals shot after their recent regional win. That said, I'm sure that's not the case. James Madison has been rock solid for a good decade now in the BOA scene, and I've been anxious for them to try their hand at GN again. For the record, they were less than a point out of Semis in 2014, and have grown as a band since then. I also thought they fell prey in 2014 to the often-seen Texas problem of over-designing/over-complicating a show on a first trip to GN and coming up with something sterile and less exciting than the shows or demand that rocketed x band to success in the first place. This year, they already have the design in place --- maybe they thought "damn, we've got a great show & group of kids this year, let's zip up to Indy and give it another shot!". I think that alone would be more than enough reason to sign up late. I had no idea until I heard the announcer last week but apparently they have TWO sudler flags! Impressive
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