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Post by coleeich on Sept 7, 2023 13:01:08 GMT -6
I keep trying to make an updated prediction but gah it's so difficult! Trying to put my Oklahoma bias aside, but also the more I think about it, the more I feel like all 6 of the Oklahoma bands have a shot at finals. The way I see it:
Avon, Carmel, William Mason, Brownsburg, Fishers, Bixby, Castle, and O'Fallon Township are locks (mind you, I have only seen a few of these shows, so mainly talking on historical data). So that is 8 of the 14.
I want to say Grain Valley and Lincoln are locks. But I actually think Lincoln is going to be in the next 4 (Panel 2 has some hard hitters like Avon, Carmel, Castle, Fishers, and I think Bixby will be in the top 5 too..). I could see a world where panel 1 has judges scoring bands higher and somehow Lincoln gets knocked out of finals. I don't think that will be the case, but I don't think its impossible. Lincoln could also continue improving from their incredible season last year and knock Castle or Bixby out of the top 5 and into the next 4. So for now, we will call Lincoln as in finals. I think same goes for Grain Valley and Lincoln-Way, although I think what makes it tough is not knowing how the Oklahoma contingent is going to compare.
Yukon is big this year but has some visual cleaning to do. Union is hard to predict but they are consistently in finals. Southmoore had a breakout season last year, so I think it is wrong to count them out. Deer Creek is absolutely a dark horse, but they are unlike any Deer Creek we have seen in the past. And heck, they literally got 34th in GN prelims last year, beating bands like Center Grove. Both Yukon and Southmoore beat Lakota West at St. Louis last year. Choctaw is hard to predict since they have also made finals here before, and I think they are having a better season than last year. The crazy part is, I genuinely think all 6 bands from OK are better than they were last year. So I truly can't decide where to make the cutoff.
So all that to say, I'm not committing to anything other than who I think the locks are.
Locks for me right now: Avon, Carmel, WM, Brownsburg, Fishers, Bixby, Castle, O'Fallon
Bubble for me right now: Lincoln, Grain Valley, Union, Southmoore, Deer Creek, Yukon, Lincoln-Way, Choctaw, Center Grove, Centerville, Lakota West, MPLT
I'll make a firmer prediction probably the week before this contest. Cheers!
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Post by regimember on Sept 7, 2023 13:15:40 GMT -6
I keep trying to make an updated prediction but gah it's so difficult! Trying to put my Oklahoma bias aside, but also the more I think about it, the more I feel like all 6 of the Oklahoma bands have a shot at finals. The way I see it: Avon, Carmel, William Mason, Brownsburg, Fishers, Bixby, Castle, and O'Fallon Township are locks (mind you, I have only seen a few of these shows, so mainly talking on historical data). So that is 8 of the 14. I want to say Grain Valley and Lincoln are locks. But I actually think Lincoln is going to be in the next 4 (Panel 2 has some hard hitters like Avon, Carmel, Castle, Fishers, and I think Bixby will be in the top 5 too..). I could see a world where panel 1 has judges scoring bands higher and somehow Lincoln gets knocked out of finals. I don't think that will be the case, but I don't think its impossible. Lincoln could also continue improving from their incredible season last year and knock Castle or Bixby out of the top 5 and into the next 4. So for now, we will call Lincoln as in finals. I think same goes for Grain Valley and Lincoln-Way, although I think what makes it tough is not knowing how the Oklahoma contingent is going to compare. Yukon is big this year but has some visual cleaning to do. Union is hard to predict but they are consistently in finals. Southmoore had a breakout season last year, so I think it is wrong to count them out. Deer Creek is absolutely a dark horse, but they are unlike any Deer Creek we have seen in the past. And heck, they literally got 34th in GN prelims last year, beating bands like Center Grove. Both Yukon and Southmoore beat Lakota West at St. Louis last year. Choctaw is hard to predict since they have also made finals here before, and I think they are having a better season than last year. The crazy part is, I genuinely think all 6 bands from OK are better than they were last year. So I truly can't decide where to make the cutoff. So all that to say, I'm not committing to anything other than who I think the locks are. Locks for me right now: Avon, Carmel, WM, Brownsburg, Fishers, Bixby, Castle, O'Fallon Bubble for me right now: Lincoln, Grain Valley, Union, Southmoore, Deer Creek, Yukon, Lincoln-Way, Choctaw, Center Grove, Centerville, Lakota West, MPLT I'll make a firmer prediction probably the week before this contest. Cheers! I definitely see where you're coming from with the confidence in Bixby as they continuously out do themselves each coming year locally... but as we've seen in the past with BOA comps such as St. Louis SR '19, the Bixby writing that everyone here in Oklahoma knows and loves doesn't end up translating very well to the BOA sheets. I think it definitely has to do with the fact that they still don't hire any external sources to help with the development of their production, additionally the overall show style of theirs hasn't really changed over the years... so even though we are in a completely new era, it'll be interesting to see how things play out considering all things stated.
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Post by statechamp1239 on Sept 7, 2023 13:19:22 GMT -6
Concordia Lutheran, IN and Lafayette, LA have dropped. NOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ![:'(](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/cry.png) *Cries in my pillow* mAyBe tHeY'Re GoINg To a NOrmAl ReGioNaL (I'm in my denial stage of grief)
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Post by Allohak on Sept 7, 2023 13:21:01 GMT -6
Concordia Lutheran, IN and Lafayette, LA have dropped. NOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ![:'(](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/cry.png) *Cries in my pillow* mAyBe tHeY'Re GoINg To a NOrmAl ReGioNaL Maybe they're coming to GN instead?
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Post by Allohak on Sept 7, 2023 13:41:23 GMT -6
NOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ![:'(](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/cry.png) *Cries in my pillow* mAyBe tHeY'Re GoINg To a NOrmAl ReGioNaL Maybe they're coming to GN instead? Nvm, their booster calendar shows a USBands show in Shreveport on this weekend and nothing after state championships on 11/4
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Post by cinnamonpromenade on Sept 7, 2023 15:55:08 GMT -6
Of all the groups performing on Friday, all but four are from Indiana.
Of all the groups performing on Saturday, only five are from Indiana.
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Post by hewhowaits on Sept 7, 2023 17:19:44 GMT -6
Of all the groups performing on Friday, all but four are from Indiana. Of all the groups performing on Saturday, only five are from Indiana. Makes sense - the local groups on Friday and those who have to travel on Saturday. Not to mention the ISSMA Semi-State events on Saturday.
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Post by macwinlin on Sept 8, 2023 22:45:27 GMT -6
After seeing Deer Creek (OK) tonight, I have a feeling they’ll end up being on everyone’s finals predictions as we get closer to this SR. They might fight for a medal in AAA. They’ve grown by at least 50 members since last year, and the production design seems really mature. Anyone know who they’re using?
Very exciting for their first BOA trip!
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Post by yayband914 on Sept 8, 2023 22:48:17 GMT -6
After seeing Deer Creek (OK) tonight, I have a feeling they’ll end up being on everyone’s finals predictions as we get closer to this SR. They might fight for a medal in AAA. They’ve grown by at least 50 members since last year, and the production design seems really mature. Anyone know who they’re using? Very exciting for their first BOA trip! Second! They went to Grand Nationals last year.
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Post by macwinlin on Sept 8, 2023 23:00:58 GMT -6
After seeing Deer Creek (OK) tonight, I have a feeling they’ll end up being on everyone’s finals predictions as we get closer to this SR. They might fight for a medal in AAA. They’ve grown by at least 50 members since last year, and the production design seems really mature. Anyone know who they’re using? Very exciting for their first BOA trip! Second! They went to Grand Nationals last year. Oh yeah! Thanks 🥴🙃 I didn’t even think about it. Glad they’re going into it with a performance in LOS already.
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Post by coleeich on Sept 9, 2023 12:54:23 GMT -6
After seeing Deer Creek (OK) tonight, I have a feeling they’ll end up being on everyone’s finals predictions as we get closer to this SR. They might fight for a medal in AAA. They’ve grown by at least 50 members since last year, and the production design seems really mature. Anyone know who they’re using? Very exciting for their first BOA trip! Their website says Greg Mangus for "Brass/Marching Band Design," so maybe him? If I am remembering correctly, he used to be at Mustang and then spent a few years at Edmond North in the years where they really started flourishing (2017-2019 is what I am thinking of). Design work also gives me the same vibes, but not sure as to the extent he is involved in teaching now. I really enjoy Deer Creek's show. I think my only slight hesitation with me is it feels a bit simple from a visual perspective. It is also still very early in the season, so a lot can be developed between now and then. I think they are tentatively in my finals prediction, but I will be curious to see how these first few week of contests go!
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Post by aiden on Sept 9, 2023 13:49:35 GMT -6
Beavercreek is solidly in the top 25 this year
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Post by dbalash on Sept 13, 2023 10:41:10 GMT -6
Western listed as 1A on Competition Suite. Colerain, Kettering Fairmont, North Hardin listed as 3A on Competition Suite.
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Post by Momof20613 on Sept 13, 2023 18:22:18 GMT -6
Western listed as 1A on Competition Suite. Colerain, Kettering Fairmont, North Hardin listed as 3A on Competition Suite. How do you see competition suite and where the different schools fall in classification?
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Post by ycl2023 on Sept 17, 2023 18:45:41 GMT -6
Predictions for Top 14 as of 9/17:
1. Carmel 2. Avon 3. William Mason 4. Bixby 5. Castle 6. Brownsburg 7. Fishers 8. O'Fallon Township 9. Lincoln 10. Grain Valley 11.Yukon 12. Lincoln-Way 13. Southmoore 14. Center Grove
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Post by lostinthebands on Sept 17, 2023 21:22:31 GMT -6
Predictions for Top 14 as of 9/17: 1. Carmel 2. Avon 3. William Mason 4. Bixby 5. Castle 6. Brownsburg 7. Fishers 8. O'Fallon Township 9. Lincoln 10. Grain Valley 11.Yukon 12. Lincoln-Way 13. Southmoore 14. Center Grovefor the most part I agree, accept that I think Grain Valley is more finals bubble and less of a finalist lock. Bixby is a bit too high but I think everyone’s rooting for them this year so I suppose it’s not too out of order to set them as 4th. Also, Justice for Union 🥲
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Post by macwinlin on Sept 17, 2023 22:17:41 GMT -6
Predictions for Top 14 as of 9/17: 1. Carmel 2. Avon 3. William Mason 4. Bixby 5. Castle 6. Brownsburg 7. Fishers 8. O'Fallon Township 9. Lincoln 10. Grain Valley 11.Yukon 12. Lincoln-Way 13. Southmoore 14. Center Grovefor the most part I agree, accept that I think Grain Valley is more finals bubble and less of a finalist lock. Bixby is a bit too high but I think everyone’s rooting for them this year so I suppose it’s not too out of order to set them as 4th. Also, Justice for Union 🥲 If Bixby does that, they’d likely be poised to medal at State. I’d love to see it, but depends on the show and if they can keep up momentum later in the season. They always do so well early in the season. I would love to see Southmoore in finals! In fact, alllll the Oklahoma bands. Then we can really call it an “Oklahoma invasion.” 😁
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Post by regimember on Sept 18, 2023 4:18:56 GMT -6
Predictions for Top 14 as of 9/17: 1. Carmel 2. Avon 3. William Mason 4. Bixby 5. Castle 6. Brownsburg 7. Fishers 8. O'Fallon Township 9. Lincoln 10. Grain Valley 11.Yukon 12. Lincoln-Way 13. Southmoore 14. Center Grovefor the most part I agree, accept that I think Grain Valley is more finals bubble and less of a finalist lock. Bixby is a bit too high but I think everyone’s rooting for them this year so I suppose it’s not too out of order to set them as 4th. Also, Justice for Union 🥲 I guess we've got a new dark horse, lol 😂
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Post by coleeich on Sept 18, 2023 8:05:55 GMT -6
Predictions for Top 14 as of 9/17: 1. Carmel 2. Avon 3. William Mason 4. Bixby 5. Castle 6. Brownsburg 7. Fishers 8. O'Fallon Township 9. Lincoln 10. Grain Valley 11.Yukon 12. Lincoln-Way 13. Southmoore 14. Center Grovefor the most part I agree, accept that I think Grain Valley is more finals bubble and less of a finalist lock. Bixby is a bit too high but I think everyone’s rooting for them this year so I suppose it’s not too out of order to set them as 4th. Also, Justice for Union 🥲 I will be interested to see how Bixby performs at their first few contests. I do think they have really great potential to place pretty highly, but I think it is more likely (at least right now) to see them in the 6-8 range. But time will tell! I absolutely have Union in my finals prediction right now. That could change pending how they do at these first few contests, but we've doubted them at Super Regionals the last two years and they have managed to sneak it. I honestly expect they will sneak in this year as well (not to mention I think they are better this year than the last two). I have mentioned this previously, but the bubble group is so large for this contest! I think a lot of the Oklahoma bands fall in this range, but I expect we will see 3-5 Oklahoma bands in finals. Right now, I think Southmoore is looking pretty good for finals. Yukon has a LOT of visual cleaning to do, but they have a very nice sound that could take them far. I am a major Choctaw fan this season, and I think they will be surprising some people. And Deer Creek is killing it this year. They are a whole different band than what we saw last year. Genuinely believe any of these groups could make finals with the right prelims run, so it will truly come down to who can get their show to the cleanest and most developed stage by Oct 21. Not to mention all of the incredible non-Oklahoma bands that are fighting for finals spots too. It's going to be a tough race, but boy am I excited!
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Post by bigtrombone on Sept 18, 2023 8:11:55 GMT -6
Predictions for Top 14 as of 9/17: 1. Carmel 2. Avon 3. William Mason 4. Bixby 5. Castle 6. Brownsburg 7. Fishers 8. O'Fallon Township 9. Lincoln 10. Grain Valley 11.Yukon 12. Lincoln-Way 13. Southmoore 14. Center Grovefor the most part I agree, accept that I think Grain Valley is more finals bubble and less of a finalist lock. Bixby is a bit too high but I think everyone’s rooting for them this year so I suppose it’s not too out of order to set them as 4th. Also, Justice for Union 🥲 The last 2 years, everyone was talking about how down and out Union was (for good reason), and they (myself included) left them out of finals predictions at their respective Super Regionals. Then they made finals both times, with their 2022 appearance at Indy finals being really impressive, considering how their season had gone up to that point, and the depth of the finals bubble that year. I think the moral of the story here is to never count out Union.
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Post by ilikeguard on Sept 18, 2023 11:37:34 GMT -6
Predictions for Top 14 as of 9/17: 1. Carmel 2. Avon 3. William Mason 4. Bixby 5. Castle 6. Brownsburg 7. Fishers 8. O'Fallon Township 9. Lincoln 10. Grain Valley 11.Yukon 12. Lincoln-Way 13. Southmoore 14. Center Grovefor the most part I agree, accept that I think Grain Valley is more finals bubble and less of a finalist lock. Bixby is a bit too high but I think everyone’s rooting for them this year so I suppose it’s not too out of order to set them as 4th. Also, Justice for Union 🥲 Agreed about Grain Valley. We’ll have to see how the director change has affected things before anyone makes any calls. Bixby is like Jenks in the way that they’re phenomenal but you can’t predict how well a show is going to land from year to year. I’m not sure how much of a hot take this is…but I didn’t see the hype for Union the past two years. I was certain that there were better finals candidates at both Supers. It felt like their past successes were speaking for them instead of their current performances. But as always, there’s a reason I’m not a judge 🤷🏼♀️
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Post by statechamp1239 on Sept 18, 2023 13:01:44 GMT -6
for the most part I agree, accept that I think Grain Valley is more finals bubble and less of a finalist lock. Bixby is a bit too high but I think everyone’s rooting for them this year so I suppose it’s not too out of order to set them as 4th. Also, Justice for Union 🥲 The last 2 years, everyone was talking about how down and out Union was (for good reason), and they (myself included) left them out of finals predictions at their respective Super Regionals. Then they made finals both times, with their 2022 appearance at Indy finals being really impressive, considering how their season had gone up to that point, and the depth of the finals bubble that year. I think the moral of the story here is to never count out Union. Not me last year I put Union in finals somewhere around 8th or 9th place, and Franklin in the high 20's, and people started to come after me. Now look they made finals last year and Franklin were in the 20s.
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Post by regimember on Sept 18, 2023 13:14:28 GMT -6
for the most part I agree, accept that I think Grain Valley is more finals bubble and less of a finalist lock. Bixby is a bit too high but I think everyone’s rooting for them this year so I suppose it’s not too out of order to set them as 4th. Also, Justice for Union 🥲 Agreed about Grain Valley. We’ll have to see how the director change has affected things before anyone makes any calls. Bixby is like Jenks in the way that they’re phenomenal but you can’t predict how well a show is going to land from year to year. I’m not sure how much of a hot take this is…but I didn’t see the hype for Union the past two years. I was certain that there were better finals candidates at both Supers. It felt like their past successes were speaking for them instead of their current performances. But as always, there’s a reason I’m not a judge 🤷🏼♀️ The thing is... there has been no hype regarding Union these past two years... Even Grand Nats 2019 if you look at the forums everyone had them counted out until their semis performance. This group has definitely been swept under the rug. Not to mention how the focus and attention in Oklahoma has been shifted towards the outer cities, where population is drastically increasing. Classic case of urbanization. Sad to say but in this culture it's hard for more diverse groups to stay a float. This effect is in direct regards to the employment and community in a district, which absolutely sucks.
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Post by ilikeguard on Sept 18, 2023 16:21:42 GMT -6
Agreed about Grain Valley. We’ll have to see how the director change has affected things before anyone makes any calls. Bixby is like Jenks in the way that they’re phenomenal but you can’t predict how well a show is going to land from year to year. I’m not sure how much of a hot take this is…but I didn’t see the hype for Union the past two years. I was certain that there were better finals candidates at both Supers. It felt like their past successes were speaking for them instead of their current performances. But as always, there’s a reason I’m not a judge 🤷🏼♀️ The thing is... there has been no hype regarding Union these past two years... Even Grand Nats 2019 if you look at the forums everyone had them counted out until their semis performance. This group has definitely been swept under the rug. Not to mention how the focus and attention in Oklahoma has been shifted towards the outer cities, where population is drastically increasing. Classic case of urbanization. Sad to say but in this culture it's hard for more diverse groups to stay a float. This effect is in direct regards to the employment and community in a district, which absolutely sucks. I don’t disagree with you on any of that, just thought there were performances in 2021 and 2022 that I would have put in SR finals over them. It doesn’t discredit their (I’m guessing your) work.
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Post by regimember on Sept 18, 2023 17:14:55 GMT -6
The thing is... there has been no hype regarding Union these past two years... Even Grand Nats 2019 if you look at the forums everyone had them counted out until their semis performance. This group has definitely been swept under the rug. Not to mention how the focus and attention in Oklahoma has been shifted towards the outer cities, where population is drastically increasing. Classic case of urbanization. Sad to say but in this culture it's hard for more diverse groups to stay a float. This effect is in direct regards to the employment and community in a district, which absolutely sucks. I don’t disagree with you on any of that, just thought there were performances in 2021 and 2022 that I would have put in SR finals over them. It doesn’t discredit their (I’m guessing your) work. Haha the names a Phantom plug but I guess it could go both ways 😂 and there's no disagreement here either, obviously there's no right answer, but basically there wasn't really a common public opinion other than the one you made yourself. After Covid, many more groups were brought to the surface and honestly I think its amazing to see, its what BOA needs.
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Post by BDMello2223 on Sept 18, 2023 19:55:32 GMT -6
Predictions for Top 14 as of 9/17: 1. Carmel 2. Avon 3. William Mason 4. Bixby 5. Castle 6. Brownsburg 7. Fishers 8. O'Fallon Township 9. Lincoln 10. Grain Valley 11.Yukon 12. Lincoln-Way 13. Southmoore 14. Center GroveMan I hope so! I agree with what other people are saying in this chat though, I wouldn’t count Union out! They do tend to sneak into finals unexpectedly so it’s a distinct possibility. Southmoore is making it I think, and Yukon has some serious steam. If they can pull their drill together before Indy they may come packing a serious punch. Deer Creek as well! If they can pull up with a clean, quality production then there’s no doubt that they would have a spot in finals! Really excited to see this one 😁
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Post by realjsnacks on Sept 19, 2023 15:06:19 GMT -6
Way too early predictions for this regional are here! I tried not to let my OK bias get in the way here, but I'm sure it's still evident. After all, it wouldn't be the Oklahoma Invasion if none of them were in finals ![;)](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/wink.png) I also added my next 4 out since there's almost certainly going to be some heavy hitters out of finals here. 1. Carmel 2. Avon 3. William Mason 4. Castle 5. Brownsburg 6. Fishers 7. Bixby 8. O'Fallon Township 9. Lincoln 10. Southmoore 11. Lincoln-Way 12. Grain Valley 13. Yukon 14. Union ------------------------ 15. Center Grove 16. Deer Creek 17. Lakota West 18. Choctaw Music- Carmel Visual- Avon GE- Carmel A- Edgewood AA- Grain Valley (though I genuinely think Choctaw has a shot at an upset too) AAA- Castle (Bixby also has a chance to upset here, but I'm less confident with that claim) AAAA- Carmel
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Post by indianabandkid12 on Sept 20, 2023 18:48:18 GMT -6
Way too early predictions for this regional are here! I tried not to let my OK bias get in the way here, but I'm sure it's still evident. After all, it wouldn't be the Oklahoma Invasion if none of them were in finals ![;)](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/wink.png) I also added my next 4 out since there's almost certainly going to be some heavy hitters out of finals here. 1. Carmel 2. Avon 3. William Mason 4. Castle 5. Brownsburg 6. Fishers 7. Bixby 8. O'Fallon Township 9. Lincoln 10. Southmoore 11. Lincoln-Way 12. Grain Valley 13. Yukon 14. Union ------------------------ 15. Center Grove 16. Deer Creek 17. Lakota West 18. Choctaw Music- Carmel Visual- Avon GE- Carmel A- Edgewood AA- Grain Valley (though I genuinely think Choctaw has a shot at an upset too) AAA- Castle (Bixby also has a chance to upset here, but I'm less confident with that claim) AAAA- Carmel I really think that after last season, Grain Valley could surprise some people, even possibly beating out Lincoln-Way
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Post by BDMello2223 on Sept 27, 2023 14:00:49 GMT -6
Predictions for Indy after the 24th:
1) Carmel 2) Avon 3) William Mason 4) Castle 5) Brownsburg 6) Bixby 7) Fisher 8) O’Fallon Township 9) Lincoln 10) Yukon 11) Grain Valley 12) Lincoln-Way 13) Center Grove 14) Union
GE) Carmel Visual) Avon Music) Carmel
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Post by ycl2023 on Sept 29, 2023 12:05:44 GMT -6
Current BOA Indy Predictions as of 9/29/23:
1. Carmel 2. Avon 3. William Mason 4. Castle 5. Bixby 6. Brownsburg 7. Fishers 8. O'Fallon Township 9. Lincoln 10. Yukon 11. Grain Valley 12. Southmoore 13. Lincoln Way 14. Union
Expecting some big things from Yukon this year from what I’ve seen, there music and visuals are well designed but just need some more cleaning visually, also I’ve seen there props and wow.
Union I think sneaks in a could even contend to southmoore and Lincoln way, just depends on their work the next few weeks, and I think if deer creek was to make it, they could but with no help from the steep competition.
I love Bixby but now thinking they might not beat castle but those top spots could variate a lot the next few weeks, not by who would make the top locks but by order.
Hopeful for the Oklahoma invasion this year, and from what I’ve seen, it’s very possible.
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