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Post by yayband914 on May 15, 2019 20:46:31 GMT -6
This is a very light year. Top-heavy, but still light enough to make bands like Greendale semis contenders, even by score if they have a good run.
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Post by hewhowaits on May 16, 2019 5:19:14 GMT -6
Only 85 bands on the list for now. Last year we had 108. Still plenty of room for more groups to join the party.
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Post by boahistorybuff on May 16, 2019 6:45:09 GMT -6
Looks like 5 (maybe more) Texas bands in finals this year. Glad to see Texas sending more bands this year; and they're some pretty good ones too! I agree, there is still time for more bands to sign up, so this is likely to get more competitive than the current lists suggests.
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Post by OldSchoolTrumpet on May 16, 2019 8:23:49 GMT -6
Only 85 bands on the list for now. Last year we had 108. Still plenty of room for more groups to join the party. ----------------------------- It will be interesting to see if any finalist contenders will be added. I'd have to think that the bands at that level aren't making such decisions at this late date. |
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Post by principalagent on May 16, 2019 8:31:42 GMT -6
Prosper joins the fray again!
EDIT: This is a joke - not real. I doubt they go again. Carry on with your days.
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Post by 18Saxes on May 16, 2019 9:06:11 GMT -6
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Post by hewhowaits on May 16, 2019 9:43:12 GMT -6
Only 85 bands on the list for now. Last year we had 108. Still plenty of room for more groups to join the party. ----------------------------- It will be interesting to see if any finalist contenders will be added. I'd have to think that the bands at that level aren't making such decisions at this late date. Additional finalist contenders does seem unlikely. But there is plenty of room for the list of "will they or won't they make semifinals" to grow. |
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Post by supersound on May 16, 2019 17:07:28 GMT -6
I knew that some finals contenders would not be going to Grand Nationals this year like Dobyns-Bennet since they’re going to the Rose Bowl and such But I didn’t hear much about Blue Springs not going, my best guess is they follow a pattern but I’d like to hear some confirmation with all these big groups not goig
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Post by drumcorpsgeek on May 16, 2019 17:32:42 GMT -6
I knew that some finals contenders would not be going to Grand Nationals this year like Dobyns-Bennet since they’re going to the Rose Bowl and such But I didn’t hear much about Blue Springs not going, my best guess is they follow a pattern but I’d like to hear some confirmation with all these big groups not goig They're doing the Macy's Parade |
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Post by supersound on May 16, 2019 18:05:58 GMT -6
I knew that some finals contenders would not be going to Grand Nationals this year like Dobyns-Bennet since they’re going to the Rose Bowl and such But I didn’t hear much about Blue Springs not going, my best guess is they follow a pattern but I’d like to hear some confirmation with all these big groups not goig They're doing the Macy's Parade Thanks! |
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Post by Marching Observer on May 18, 2019 12:51:17 GMT -6
Grand Nationals is my 'Super Bowl' so I'll most definitely be there barring any unforeseen emergencies. Texas is making the hard push for the Eagle this year! Love it.
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Post by yayband914 on May 19, 2019 19:28:17 GMT -6
Trying a hand at this... way too early to try and predict the top 30 accurately, so I'm trying out tiers. It's fun to see how things might play out!
Finals Locks:
Avon H.S., IN
Carmel H.S., IN
Claudia Taylor Johnson H.S., TX
Hebron H.S., TX
Leander H.S., TX
The Woodlands H.S., TX
Vandegrift H.S., TX
William Mason H.S., OH
Fighting for the Last 4 Finals Spots:
Ayala H.S., CA
Center Grove H.S., IN
Harrison H.S., GA
Homestead H.S., IN
Marian Catholic H.S., IN
Park Vista H.S., FL
Round Rock H.S., TX
Union H.S., OK
Comfortably in Semis:
Bassett H.S., VA
Brownsburg H.S., IN
Centerville H.S., OH
Fishers H.S., IN
James F. Byrnes H.S., SC
Lake Central H.S., IN
Lawrence Township H.S., IN
North Hardin H.S., KY
Plymouth-Canton E.P., MI
Rockford H.S., MI
Fighting for the Last 4 Semis Spots:
Blue Valley West H.S., KS
Greendale H.S., WI
Greenfield-Central H.S., IN
Lakota West H.S., OH
Miamisburg H.S., OH
Milford H.S., OH
Semis Bubbles/Dark Horses:
Campbell County H.S., KY
Columbus North H.S., IN
Jenison H.S., MI
Lake Hamilton H.S., AR
Norton H.S., OH
West Cateret H.S., NC
Columbus North, Jenison and Lake Hamilton seem to have steadily been declining recently, though I am not trying to take away from them; they are all excellent programs, and it is probably just due to the level of competition being way higher in 2017 and 2018. But after last year's Grand Nationals results I'm not sure where they will go this year.
Class reps... all of the AAAA semis bands will obviously make it in by score. In AAA, Harrison and Leander will make it in by score, leaving Columbus North, Miamisburg and Milford to either make it in by score or get lucky in the scheduling to represent their class in semifinals. In AA, Marian Catholic and North Hardin are the clear front runners, with Bassett following closely behind, who should all make it in on score alone, leaving Blue Valley West, Greendale and Greenfield-Central fighting for the lucky 4th spot to represent their class in semifinals. In Class A, Beechwood, Bourbon County, Lewis Cass and Norton are the clear frontrunners based on history and in recent years, but how the schedule is laid out will determine a lot. Other potential semis fighters for Class A are Archbishop Alter, Bellbrook, Estill County and Milton-Union.
While it's a pretty light year for Grand Nationals so far and A LOT can change in the coming months, the top 30-35 groups are pretty exciting and we could see quite a couple new faces perform in semifinals for the first time!
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Post by marimba11 on May 19, 2019 21:15:29 GMT -6
Trying a hand at this... way too early to try and predict the top 30 accurately, so I'm trying out tiers. It's fun to see how things might play out! Finals Locks: Avon H.S., IN Carmel H.S., IN Claudia Taylor Johnson H.S., TX Hebron H.S., TX Leander H.S., TX The Woodlands H.S., TX Vandegrift H.S., TX William Mason H.S., OH Fighting for the Last 4 Finals Spots: Ayala H.S., CA Center Grove H.S., IN Harrison H.S., GA Homestead H.S., IN Marian Catholic H.S., IN Park Vista H.S., FL Round Rock H.S., TX Union H.S., OK Comfortably in Semis: Bassett H.S., VA Brownsburg H.S., IN Centerville H.S., OH Fishers H.S., IN James F. Byrnes H.S., SC Lake Central H.S., IN Lawrence Township H.S., IN North Hardin H.S., KY Plymouth-Canton E.P., MI Rockford H.S., MI Fighting for the Last 4 Semis Spots: Blue Valley West H.S., KS Cary H.S., NC Greendale H.S., WI Greenfield-Central H.S., IN Lakota West H.S., OH Miamisburg H.S., OH Milford H.S., OH Semis Bubbles/Dark Horses: Campbell County H.S., KY Columbus North H.S., IN Jenison H.S., MI Lake Hamilton H.S., AR Norton H.S., OH West Cateret H.S., NC Columbus North, Jenison and Lake Hamilton seem to have steadily been declining recently, though I am not trying to take away from them; they are all excellent programs, and it is probably just due to the level of competition being way higher in 2017 and 2018. But after last year's Grand Nationals results I'm not sure where they will go this year. All of the AAAA semis bands will obviously make it in by score. In AAA, Harrison, James F. Byrnes and Leander will all make it in by score, leaving Cary, Columbus North, Miamisburg or Milford to either make it in by score or hope that how they are scheduled in the panels makes them the lucky 4th band to represent their class in semifinals. In AA, Marian Catholic and North Hardin are the clear front runners, with Bassett following closely behind, who should all make it in on score alone, leaving Blue Valley West, Greendale and Greenfield-Central fighting for the lucky 4th spot to represent their class in semifinals. In Class A, Beechwood, Bourbon County, Lewis Cass and Norton are the clear frontrunners based on history and in recent years, but how the schedule is laid out will determine a lot. Other potential semis fighters for Class A are Archbishop Alter, Bellbrook, Estill County and Milton-Union. While it's a pretty light year for Grand Nationals so far and A LOT can change in the coming months, the top 30-35 groups are pretty exciting and we could see quite a few brand new faces perform in semifinals for the first time! James f Byrnes is AAAA |
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Post by paddy on May 20, 2019 5:38:35 GMT -6
In AA, depending on draw, there could be 2 AA spots available.
Of course I’m assuming the rules haven’t changed from last year. 4 AA groups made it on score from one group and the top 2 in the other group were class reps.
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Post by supersound on May 20, 2019 6:42:31 GMT -6
I think we’re underestimating Rockford here
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Post by 18Saxes on May 20, 2019 6:45:02 GMT -6
I think we’re underestimating Rockford here Is that thought based on how they placed in semis of 2018? |
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Post by thewho on May 20, 2019 6:56:10 GMT -6
I think we’re underestimating Rockford here Is that thought based on how they placed in semis of 2018? I would wager a yes here, but honestly, I'm in agreement. Rockford is terrifically underrated. |
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Post by supersound on May 20, 2019 7:04:42 GMT -6
Is that thought based on how they placed in semis of 2018? I would wager a yes here, but honestly, I'm in agreement. Rockford is terrifically underrated. A placement like that works as great motivation for the kids and they’re already improving like crazy, another dark horse is fishers My advice is to watch for both |
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Post by OldSchoolTrumpet on May 20, 2019 7:26:22 GMT -6
I have visited the future. Your 2019 GN Finalists are (not in order, I don't want to spoil it completely):
Avon H.S., IN
Carmel H.S., IN
Claudia Taylor Johnson H.S., TX
Hebron H.S., TX
Leander H.S., TX
The Woodlands H.S., TX
Vandegrift H.S., TX
William Mason H.S., OH
Park Vista H.S., FL
Round Rock H.S., TX
Union H.S., OK
Harrison H.S., GA
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Post by Allohak on May 20, 2019 7:34:50 GMT -6
I have visited the future. Your 2019 GN Finalists are (not in order, I don't want to spoil it completely): Avon H.S., IN Carmel H.S., IN Claudia Taylor Johnson H.S., TX Hebron H.S., TX Leander H.S., TX The Woodlands H.S., TX Vandegrift H.S., TX William Mason H.S., OH Park Vista H.S., FL Round Rock H.S., TX Union H.S., OK Harrison H.S., GA And the semis judges got it all right. Perfectly reasonable list |
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Post by OldSchoolTrumpet on May 20, 2019 7:41:18 GMT -6
And the semis judges got it all right.
Perfectly reasonable list
-----------------------------------------------------------------------In all seriousness, I'm really interested to see how Marian Catholic comes back. I've felt for a good two or three years that the influx of new powers from TX and schools like DB and Blue Springs were going to prove to be too much for them...sort of how perennial finalists like Lawrence Twp and Center Grove got squeezed out. Missing last season was shocking...but not. I really wonder if we've seen the last of Marian as a finalist. If they miss this season, I kind of think we have. |
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Post by paddy on May 20, 2019 8:51:34 GMT -6
And the semis judges got it all right.
Perfectly reasonable list
-----------------------------------------------------------------------In all seriousness, I'm really interested to see how Marian Catholic comes back. I've felt for a good two or three years that the influx of new powers from TX and schools like DB and Blue Springs were going to prove to be too much for them...sort of how perennial finalists like Lawrence Twp and Center Grove got squeezed out. Missing last season was shocking...but not. I really wonder if we've seen the last of Marian as a finalist. If they miss this season, I kind of think we have. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ I have a friend who marched at MC and is a tech for multiple groups today. She felt that Marian making Semis was as much reputation as achievement last year and missing finals was not surprising at all. Now there is probably a little bit of "back in my day" nostalgia driving that opinion, but she is pretty knowledgeable. |
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Post by paddy on May 20, 2019 8:52:06 GMT -6
I have visited the future. Your 2019 GN Finalists are (not in order, I don't want to spoil it completely): Avon H.S., IN Carmel H.S., IN Claudia Taylor Johnson H.S., TX Hebron H.S., TX Leander H.S., TX The Woodlands H.S., TX Vandegrift H.S., TX William Mason H.S., OH Park Vista H.S., FL Round Rock H.S., TX Union H.S., OK Harrison H.S., GA ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Not enough Texas Bands. |
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Post by principalagent on May 20, 2019 11:47:59 GMT -6
Homestead will almost certainly make finals in this field. I would place a bet of a round of drinks on that.
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Post by thewho on May 20, 2019 11:58:33 GMT -6
I've yet to look at this list throughly but I'm pretty confused by Harrison being that high on everyone's list. I think they're looking at 10-12 at the best with this field.
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Post by OldSchoolTrumpet on May 20, 2019 12:16:56 GMT -6
I've yet to look at this list throughly but I'm pretty confused by Harrison being that high on everyone's list. I think they're looking at 10-12 at the best with this field.I dunno. Their last trip to GN's was 2015 where they finished 9th. And they were 6th in semis ahead of Round Rock, The Woodlands, Homestead, etc. I don't think picking them top 12 in this field is a stretch at all. |
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Post by thewho on May 20, 2019 12:33:26 GMT -6
I've yet to look at this list throughly but I'm pretty confused by Harrison being that high on everyone's list. I think they're looking at 10-12 at the best with this field.I dunno. Their last trip to GN's was 2015 where they finished 9th. And they were 6th in semis ahead of Round Rock, The Woodlands, Homestead, etc. I don't think picking them top 12 in this field is a stretch at all. Fair enough, but that was 5 years ago. Two things basically that lead to this opinion: 1. I remember hearing that Harrison wasn't quite as strong as they used to be. They've been hit pretty hard by dwindling numbers. I don't why exactly this is the case, but Harrison today isn't as big as they were in 2015. 2. Harrison finished a sizable margin behind Park Vista at Orlando in 2018 (2.3-ish points). Granted, Harrison is pretty hard place with them competing at not-as-notable Powder Sprigns/Jacksonville regionals (where they were the sure shots at the title), but the Orlando result shouldn't be dismissed. Harrison is absolutely still strong enough to make finals, I'm just not as sure as placing them in the top 12 when I feel like there are bands on equal footing. |
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Post by abtwitch on May 20, 2019 13:22:23 GMT -6
Fair enough, but that was 5 years ago. Two things basically that lead to this opinion: 1. I remember hearing that Harrison wasn't quite as strong as they used to be. They've been hit pretty hard by dwindling numbers. I don't why exactly this is the case, but Harrison today isn't as big as they were in 2015. 2. Harrison finished a sizable margin behind Park Vista at Orlando in 2018 (2.3-ish points). Granted, Harrison is pretty hard place with them competing at not-as-notable Powder Sprigns/Jacksonville regionals (where they were the sure shots at the title), but the Orlando result shouldn't be dismissed. Harrison is absolutely still strong enough to make finals, I'm just not as sure as placing them in the top 12 when I feel like there are bands on equal footing. I've also heard from a friend in the area that they are going through A LOT right now with staffing and the district, so I highly doubt they will be finals unfortunately. They could potentially even miss semis, but it's too early to tell. |
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Post by paddy on May 20, 2019 13:31:58 GMT -6
Obviously, one of the reasons boards like this exist is so we can prognosticate and bicker over way too early predictions. One of the ways people make predictions is by using their view/perception of a program's prestige/talent/history. Clearly, this has issues, but I have always wondered how those perceptions effect judging. It is a judged activity and judges are human (with all of the baggage that comes with that).
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Post by Jake W. on May 20, 2019 13:52:44 GMT -6
I have visited the future. Your 2019 GN Finalists are (not in order, I don't want to spoil it completely): Avon H.S., IN Carmel H.S., IN Claudia Taylor Johnson H.S., TX Hebron H.S., TX Leander H.S., TX The Woodlands H.S., TX Vandegrift H.S., TX William Mason H.S., OH Park Vista H.S., FL Round Rock H.S., TX Union H.S., OK Harrison H.S., GA Harrison has had some significant director changes over the last few years since their last GN trip and faces similar issues to Kennesaw regarding recruitment and scheduling conflicts with upperclassmen & AP requirements, which has been consistently keeping their numbers lower than many AAA groups. They're back on the rise, but I question their abilities to break back into GN Finals. They are not the same band nor under the same direction as their previous GN Finals berths. It's certainly possible this year, but there's no way in hell they top Homestead & Union, and very little chance they'll be able to pass Park Vista or Ayala. This might change as they continue to grow throughout the upcoming season, but at the end of 2018, I had them right on par with North Hardin, PCEP, & Lawrence Township, were they to have attended GN. I am also dubious of Round Rock's chances of making Finals, depending on which group shows up. Last year they were a well-performing band given a truly subpar show design that they vastly outperformed by the season's end. I would have placed last year's RR band & design around Fishers & Franklin had they attended GN. The band seems to be at a crossroads and I'm VERY curious to see how well they reinvent themselves for next season. They're the biggest question mark heading into GN, in my opinion, and unless they show up with a much improved group & design from last year, I cannot see them tackling Park Vista, Ayala, or Center Grove (depending on which group CG shows up with as well). Either way, I do not see them touching Homestead or Union. |
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