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Post by yayband914 on Oct 18, 2021 14:59:54 GMT -6
AS OF 10/19/2021
Confirmed (64): Avon H.S., IN Beavercreek H.S., OH Beech Grove H.S., IN Ben Davis H.S., IN Bremen H.S., IN Brownsburg H.S., IN Carmel H.S., IN Castle H.S., IN Center Grove H.S., IN Centerville H.S., OH Choctaw H.S., OK Columbia City H.S., IN Concordia Lutheran H.S., IN Decatur Central H.S., IN DeKalb H.S., IN Dixie Heights H.S., KY Edgewood H.S., IN Evansville Central H.S., IN Evansville North H.S., IN F.J. Reitz H.S., IN Fairfield Jr./Sr. H.S., IN Fishers H.S., IN Floyd Central H.S., IN Forest Park Jr./Sr. H.S., IN Franklin Central H.S., IN Franklin Community H.S., IN Franklin H.S., TN Goshen H.S., IN Greenfield Central H.S., IN Greenwood Community H.S., IN Hamilton Southeastern H.S., IN Herscher H.S., IL Homestead H.S., IN Jasper H.S., IN Kettering Fairmont H.S., OH Lafayette Jefferson H.S., IN Lawrence Township H.S., IN Lewis Cass H.S., IN Mahomet-Seymour H.S., IL Monrovia H.S., IN Munster H.S., IN Noblesville H.S., IN North Hardin H.S., KY NorthWood H.S., IN Orleans Jr./Sr. H.S., IN Owasso H.S., OK Owen Valley H.S., IN Pendleton Heights H.S., IN Penn H.S., IN Pickerington North H.S., OH Plainfield North H.S., IL Ravenwood H.S., TN Rockwood Summit H.S., MO South Spencer H.S., IN Terre Haute North Vigo H.S., IN Terre Haute South Vigo H.S., IN Vincennes Lincoln H.S., IN Warren Central H.S., IN Western H.S., IN William Henry Harrison H.S., IN William Mason H.S., OH Wilmington H.S., OH Worthington Kilbourne H.S., OH Zionsville Community H.S., IN
Friday, October 22 10:15 a.m. – South Spencer H.S., IN 10:30 a.m. – Lafayette Jefferson H.S., IN 10:45 a.m. – Fairfield Jr./Sr. H.S., IN 11:00 a.m. – Western H.S., IN 11:15 a.m. – Columbia City H.S., IN 11:30 a.m. – Lewis Cass H.S., IN 11:45 a.m. – Owen Valley H.S., IN 12:00 p.m. – Zionsville Community H.S., IN 12:15 p.m. – Franklin Community H.S., IN 12:30 p.m. – Edgewood H.S., IN 12:45 p.m. – Pendleton Heights H.S., IN 1:00 p.m. – Beech Grove H.S., IN
1:15 p.m. – BREAK
2:00 p.m. – Lawrence Township, IN 2:15 p.m. – Center Grove H.S., IN 2:30 p.m. – Terre Haute South Vigo H.S., IN 2:45 p.m. – Warren Central H.S., IN 3:00 p.m. – NorthWood H.S., IN 3:15 p.m. – Plainfield North H.S., IL 3:30 p.m. – Noblesville H.S., IN 3:45 p.m. – Herscher H.S., IL 4:00 p.m. – Ben Davis H.S., IN 4:15 p.m. – Decatur Central H.S., IN 4:30 p.m. – Hamilton Southeastern H.S., IN 4:45 p.m. – Terre Haute North Vigo H.S., IN
5:00 p.m. – BREAK
6:00 p.m. – Goshen H.S., IN 6:15 p.m. – Greenwood Community H.S., IN 6:30 p.m. – Brownsburg H.S., IN 6:45 p.m. – Orleans Jr./Sr. H.S., IN 7:00 p.m. – Forest Park Jr./Sr. H.S., IN 7:15 p.m. – Greenfield Central H.S., IN 7:30 p.m. – Franklin Central H.S., IN 7:45 p.m. – Avon H.S., IN 8:00 p.m. – Carmel H.S., IN 8:15 p.m. – William Henry Harrison H.S., IN 8:30 p.m. – Fishers H.S., IN 8:45 p.m. – Munster H.S., IN
Saturday, October 23 7:15 a.m. – Monrovia H.S., IN 7:30 a.m. – Dixie Heights H.S., KY 7:45 a.m. – DeKalb H.S., IN 8:00 a.m. – Centerville H.S., OH 8:15 a.m. – Ravenwood H.S., TN 8:30 a.m. – Owasso H.S., OK 8:45 a.m. – Penn H.S., IN 9:00 a.m. – Vincennes Lincoln H.S., IN 9:15 a.m. – Bremen H.S., IN 9:30 a.m. – Kettering Fairmont H.S., OH
9:45 a.m. – BREAK
10:30 a.m. – Evansville North H.S., IN 10:45 a.m. – Floyd Central H.S., IN 11:00 a.m. – Rockwood Summit H.S., MO 11:15 a.m. – Homestead H.S., IN 11:30 a.m. – Castle H.S., IN 11:45 a.m. – William Mason H.S., OH 12:00 p.m. – Jasper H.S., IN 12:15 p.m. – F.J. Reitz H.S., IN 12:30 p.m. – Pickerington North H.S., OH
12:45 p.m. – BREAK
1:30 p.m. – Mahomet-Seymour H.S., IL 1:45 p.m. – Franklin H.S., TN 2:00 p.m. – Beavercreek H.S., OH 2:15 p.m. – North Hardin H.S., KY 2:30 p.m. – Concordia Lutheran H.S., IN 2:45 p.m. – Wilmington H.S., OH 3:00 p.m. – Evansville Central H.S., IN 3:15 p.m. – Choctaw H.S., OK 3:30 p.m. – Worthington Kilbourne H.S., OH
3:45 p.m. – Preliminary Competition Ends Exhibition: University of Wisconsin – Eau Claire 4:00 p.m. – Presentation of Awards 4:45 p.m. – Stadium Cleared
6:30 p.m. – Gates Open Pre-Show Performance by the U.S. Marines
7:00 p.m. – National Anthem Performed by the U.S. Marines 7:30 p.m. – First Performing Finalist Band 11:00 p.m. – Finals Competition Ends Class Exhibition (If Needed) 11:15 p.m. – Finale – Presentation of Awards
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Post by Marching Observer on Oct 18, 2021 20:14:28 GMT -6
Do they have a position for tabulator? 🙃🙂 THAT is one they hire event staff to handle. And not just any riff-raff event staff like several of the moderators on these forums. Well darn! *Snaps fingers* Worth a shot. 😉
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Post by yayband914 on Oct 19, 2021 14:40:33 GMT -6
"Final" Prelims Schedule as of 10/19
Friday, October 22
10:15 a.m. – South Spencer H.S., IN 10:30 a.m. – Lafayette Jefferson H.S., IN 10:45 a.m. – Fairfield Jr./Sr. H.S., IN 11:00 a.m. – Western H.S., IN 11:15 a.m. – Columbia City H.S., IN 11:30 a.m. – Lewis Cass H.S., IN 11:45 a.m. – Owen Valley H.S., IN 12:00 p.m. – Zionsville Community H.S., IN 12:15 p.m. – Franklin Community H.S., IN 12:30 p.m. – Edgewood H.S., IN 12:45 p.m. – Pendleton Heights H.S., IN 1:00 p.m. – Beech Grove H.S., IN
1:15 p.m. – BREAK
2:00 p.m. – Lawrence Township, IN 2:15 p.m. – Center Grove H.S., IN 2:30 p.m. – Terre Haute South Vigo H.S., IN 2:45 p.m. – Warren Central H.S., IN 3:00 p.m. – NorthWood H.S., IN 3:15 p.m. – Plainfield North H.S., IL 3:30 p.m. – Noblesville H.S., IN 3:45 p.m. – Herscher H.S., IL 4:00 p.m. – Ben Davis H.S., IN 4:15 p.m. – Decatur Central H.S., IN 4:30 p.m. – Hamilton Southeastern H.S., IN 4:45 p.m. – Terre Haute North Vigo H.S., IN
5:00 p.m. – BREAK
6:00 p.m. – Goshen H.S., IN 6:15 p.m. – Greenwood Community H.S., IN 6:30 p.m. – Brownsburg H.S., IN 6:45 p.m. – Orleans Jr./Sr. H.S., IN 7:00 p.m. – Forest Park Jr./Sr. H.S., IN 7:15 p.m. – Greenfield Central H.S., IN 7:30 p.m. – Franklin Central H.S., IN 7:45 p.m. – Avon H.S., IN 8:00 p.m. – Carmel H.S., IN 8:15 p.m. – William Henry Harrison H.S., IN 8:30 p.m. – Fishers H.S., IN 8:45 p.m. – Munster H.S., IN
Saturday, October 23
7:15 a.m. – Monrovia H.S., IN 7:30 a.m. – Dixie Heights H.S., KY 7:45 a.m. – DeKalb H.S., IN 8:00 a.m. – Centerville H.S., OH 8:15 a.m. – Ravenwood H.S., TN 8:30 a.m. – Owasso H.S., OK 8:45 a.m. – Penn H.S., IN 9:00 a.m. – Vincennes Lincoln H.S., IN 9:15 a.m. – Bremen H.S., IN 9:30 a.m. – Kettering Fairmont H.S., OH
9:45 a.m. – BREAK
10:30 a.m. – North H.S., IN 10:45 a.m. – Floyd Central H.S., IN 11:00 a.m. – Rockwood Summit H.S., MO 11:15 a.m. – Homestead H.S., IN 11:30 a.m. – Castle H.S., IN 11:45 a.m. – William Mason H.S., OH 12:00 p.m. – Jasper H.S., IN 12:15 p.m. – F.J. Reitz H.S., IN 12:30 p.m. – Pickerington North H.S., OH
12:45 p.m. – BREAK
1:30 p.m. – Mahomet-Seymour H.S., IL 1:45 p.m. – Franklin H.S., TN 2:00 p.m. – Beavercreek H.S., OH 2:15 p.m. – North Hardin H.S., KY 2:30 p.m. – Concordia Lutheran H.S., IN 2:45 p.m. – Wilmington H.S., OH 3:00 p.m. – Evansville Central H.S., IN 3:15 p.m. – Choctaw H.S., OK 3:30 p.m. – Worthington Kilbourne H.S., OH
3:45 p.m. – Preliminary Competition Ends Exhibition: University of Wisconsin – Eau Claire 4:00 p.m. – Presentation of Awards 4:45 p.m. – Stadium Cleared
6:30 p.m. – Gates Open Pre-Show Performance by the U.S. Marines
7:00 p.m. – National Anthem Performed by the U.S. Marines 7:30 p.m. – First Performing Finalist Band 11:00 p.m. – Finals Competition Ends Class Exhibition (If Needed) 11:15 p.m. – Finale – Presentation of Awards
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Post by jcbandfan on Oct 19, 2021 20:21:06 GMT -6
I think a lot of people are overestimating the gap between Avon and Carmel. I think it will be closer than a point either way, and I wouldn’t count Avon out from winning this one. They have a very strong show.
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Post by verysaxy on Oct 19, 2021 20:33:36 GMT -6
am i crazy for thinking castle could medal here
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Post by Marching Observer on Oct 19, 2021 20:50:46 GMT -6
am i crazy for thinking castle could medal here Nope! I'd say they have a strong shot here.
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Post by Allohak on Oct 19, 2021 20:52:42 GMT -6
am i crazy for thinking castle could medal here Mmm yeah they'd have to beat Mason (not entirely out of the question, but I wouldn't consider it likely). Castle is a very clear 4th here, with a gap on either side, IMO
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Post by marimba11 on Oct 20, 2021 9:10:44 GMT -6
am i crazy for thinking castle could medal here Mmm yeah they'd have to beat Mason (not entirely out of the question, but I wouldn't consider it likely). Castle is a very clear 4th here, with a gap on either side, IMO yeah, I'd be shocked if they beat Mason - but I suppose anything is possible. For some reason placements and scores here at Indy super don't always reflect how things go at GN.
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Post by hostrauser on Oct 20, 2021 11:35:04 GMT -6
You asked for it, and here they are! (Okay, even if you didn't ask for it, here they are anyway!)
PRELIMS PREDICTIONS
CLASS A 1. Edgewood H.S., IN 2. Forest Park H.S., IN 3. Lewis Cass H.S., IN
CLASS AA 1. Greenwood Community H.S., IN 2. North Hardin H.S., KY 3. Pickerington North H.S., OH
CLASS AAA 1. Castle H.S., IN 2. Franklin H.S., TN 3. Goshen H.S., IN
CLASS AAAA 1. Avon H.S., IN 2. Carmel H.S., IN 3. William Mason H.S., OH
FINALIST BANDS (alphabetical order) Avon H.S., IN Brownsburg H.S., IN Carmel H.S., IN Castle H.S., IN Center Grove H.S., IN Centerville H.S., OH Choctaw H.S., OK Fishers H.S., IN Franklin H.S., TN Goshen H.S., IN Greenwood Community H.S., IN Homestead H.S., IN Owasso H.S., OK William Mason H.S., OH
FINALS PREDICTION 89.950 Avon H.S., IN 87.825 Carmel H.S., IN 86.175 William Mason H.S., OH 84.650 Castle H.S., IN 83.625 Fishers H.S., IN 82.450 Homestead H.S., IN 81.150 Brownsburg H.S., IN 80.850 Centerville H.S., OH 80.750 Owasso H.S., OK 79.750 Franklin H.S., TN 77.950 Center Grove H.S., IN 76.525 Goshen H.S., IN 75.575 Choctaw H.S., OK 75.225 Greenwood Community H.S., IN
First band out: North Hardin H.S., KY (15th) Second band out: Lawrence Township H.S., IN (16th)
Choctaw, Greenwood, Lawrence Township, and North Hardin are separated by less than a point in power rating. Two of them will make Finals, two of them will miss. Mix and match at your preference.
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Post by rlrrll on Oct 20, 2021 12:11:24 GMT -6
You asked for it, and here they are! (Okay, even if you didn't ask for it, here they are anyway!) PRELIMS PREDICTIONSCLASS A 1. Edgewood H.S., IN 2. Forest Park H.S., IN 3. Lewis Cass H.S., IN CLASS AA 1. Greenwood Community H.S., IN 2. North Hardin H.S., KY 3. Pickerington North H.S., OH CLASS AAA 1. Castle H.S., IN 2. Franklin H.S., TN 3. Goshen H.S., IN CLASS AAAA 1. Avon H.S., IN 2. Carmel H.S., IN 3. William Mason H.S., OH FINALIST BANDS (alphabetical order) Avon H.S., IN Brownsburg H.S., IN Carmel H.S., IN Castle H.S., IN Center Grove H.S., IN Centerville H.S., OH Choctaw H.S., OK Fishers H.S., IN Franklin H.S., TN Goshen H.S., IN Greenwood Community H.S., IN Homestead H.S., IN Owasso H.S., OK William Mason H.S., OH FINALS PREDICTION89.950 Avon H.S., IN 87.825 Carmel H.S., IN 86.175 William Mason H.S., OH 84.650 Castle H.S., IN 83.625 Fishers H.S., IN 82.450 Homestead H.S., IN 81.150 Brownsburg H.S., IN 80.850 Centerville H.S., OH 80.750 Owasso H.S., OK 79.750 Franklin H.S., TN 77.950 Center Grove H.S., IN 76.525 Goshen H.S., IN 75.575 Choctaw H.S., OK 75.225 Greenwood Community H.S., IN First band out: North Hardin H.S., KY (15th) Second band out: Lawrence Township H.S., IN (16th) Choctaw, Greenwood, Lawrence Township, and North Hardin are separated by less than a point in power rating. Two of them will make Finals, two of them will miss. Mix and match at your preference. Unless Pickerington North underwent an enrollment drop they are AAA.
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Post by QuadSquad03 on Oct 20, 2021 12:19:32 GMT -6
You asked for it, and here they are! (Okay, even if you didn't ask for it, here they are anyway!) PRELIMS PREDICTIONSCLASS A 1. Edgewood H.S., IN 2. Forest Park H.S., IN 3. Lewis Cass H.S., IN CLASS AA 1. Greenwood Community H.S., IN 2. North Hardin H.S., KY 3. Pickerington North H.S., OH CLASS AAA 1. Castle H.S., IN 2. Franklin H.S., TN 3. Goshen H.S., IN CLASS AAAA 1. Avon H.S., IN 2. Carmel H.S., IN 3. William Mason H.S., OH FINALIST BANDS (alphabetical order) Avon H.S., IN Brownsburg H.S., IN Carmel H.S., IN Castle H.S., IN Center Grove H.S., IN Centerville H.S., OH Choctaw H.S., OK Fishers H.S., IN Franklin H.S., TN Goshen H.S., IN Greenwood Community H.S., IN Homestead H.S., IN Owasso H.S., OK William Mason H.S., OH FINALS PREDICTION89.950 Avon H.S., IN 87.825 Carmel H.S., IN 86.175 William Mason H.S., OH 84.650 Castle H.S., IN 83.625 Fishers H.S., IN 82.450 Homestead H.S., IN 81.150 Brownsburg H.S., IN 80.850 Centerville H.S., OH 80.750 Owasso H.S., OK 79.750 Franklin H.S., TN 77.950 Center Grove H.S., IN 76.525 Goshen H.S., IN 75.575 Choctaw H.S., OK 75.225 Greenwood Community H.S., IN First band out: North Hardin H.S., KY (15th) Second band out: Lawrence Township H.S., IN (16th) Choctaw, Greenwood, Lawrence Township, and North Hardin are separated by less than a point in power rating. Two of them will make Finals, two of them will miss. Mix and match at your preference. Choctaw competed as 2A at Renegade Review, which uses the same classification as BOA
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Post by paddy on Oct 20, 2021 12:32:59 GMT -6
Greenwood in local competition was behind Greenfield by 1.5 points last week same block/same panel. LT was .9 behind Greenfield same panel/same day, but later time. Greenfield was within 8.75 behind Avon same bloc/same panel 2 weeks ago and 9.9 behind Avon same panel/same day, but later time last week. And these were legitimate panels with BOA level judges on them.
I know the algorithm is being thrown by their poor showing at Dayton, but recent data suggests that they are in the hunt.
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Post by drummerboy on Oct 20, 2021 12:52:37 GMT -6
You asked for it, and here they are! (Okay, even if you didn't ask for it, here they are anyway!) PRELIMS PREDICTIONSCLASS A 1. Edgewood H.S., IN 2. Forest Park H.S., IN 3. Lewis Cass H.S., IN CLASS AA 1. Greenwood Community H.S., IN 2. North Hardin H.S., KY 3. Pickerington North H.S., OH CLASS AAA 1. Castle H.S., IN 2. Franklin H.S., TN 3. Goshen H.S., IN CLASS AAAA 1. Avon H.S., IN 2. Carmel H.S., IN 3. William Mason H.S., OH FINALIST BANDS (alphabetical order) Avon H.S., IN Brownsburg H.S., IN Carmel H.S., IN Castle H.S., IN Center Grove H.S., IN Centerville H.S., OH Choctaw H.S., OK Fishers H.S., IN Franklin H.S., TN Goshen H.S., IN Greenwood Community H.S., IN Homestead H.S., IN Owasso H.S., OK William Mason H.S., OH FINALS PREDICTION89.950 Avon H.S., IN 87.825 Carmel H.S., IN 86.175 William Mason H.S., OH 84.650 Castle H.S., IN 83.625 Fishers H.S., IN 82.450 Homestead H.S., IN 81.150 Brownsburg H.S., IN 80.850 Centerville H.S., OH 80.750 Owasso H.S., OK 79.750 Franklin H.S., TN 77.950 Center Grove H.S., IN 76.525 Goshen H.S., IN 75.575 Choctaw H.S., OK 75.225 Greenwood Community H.S., IN First band out: North Hardin H.S., KY (15th) Second band out: Lawrence Township H.S., IN (16th) Choctaw, Greenwood, Lawrence Township, and North Hardin are separated by less than a point in power rating. Two of them will make Finals, two of them will miss. Mix and match at your preference. Unless Pickerington North underwent an enrollment drop they are AAA. Just wondering why such a dropoff in degrees (some 2+ degrees and some 4+ degrees) from what some of these bands just posted on their official weather reports less than a week ago. Seems a lot understanding there can be a slight change due to ISSMA vs. BOA temperature gauges. Got a lot colder in Carmel!
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Post by hostrauser on Oct 20, 2021 12:57:24 GMT -6
Unless Pickerington North underwent an enrollment drop they are AAA. OHSAA has Pickerington North at 1,287 for 9-11, but those are 2018 numbers. USDOE has PNHS at 1,205 for 10-12 as of 2019. Either way, Pickerington North is right around the AA/AAA cut line.
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Post by hostrauser on Oct 20, 2021 13:01:06 GMT -6
Greenwood in local competition was behind Greenfield by 1.5 points last week same block/same panel. LT was .9 behind Greenfield same panel/same day, but later time. Greenfield was within 8.75 behind Avon same bloc/same panel 2 weeks ago and 9.9 behind Avon same panel/same day, but later time last week. And these were legitimate panels with BOA level judges on them. I know the algorithm is being thrown by their poor showing at Dayton, but recent data suggests that they are in the hunt. All of this was taken into consideration. BOA Dayton was also a legitimate panel with BOA level judges. Should that result just be ignored simply because it was bad for the band? ISSMA scores do not translate directly to BOA, similar judging caliber or not.
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Post by midwamericanarts on Oct 20, 2021 13:02:44 GMT -6
Unless Pickerington North underwent an enrollment drop they are AAA. Just wondering why such a dropoff in degrees (some 2+ degrees and some 4+ degrees) from what some of these bands just posted on their official weather reports less than a week ago. Seems a lot understanding there can be a slight change due to ISSMA vs. BOA temperature gauges. Got a lot colder in Carmel! Well, you have to ask yourself… are temps in Brownsburg and Castle roughly the same? If not, there’s a chance that temps in the north were a bit higher than they should have been.
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Post by hostrauser on Oct 20, 2021 13:03:41 GMT -6
Just wondering why such a dropoff in degrees (some 2+ degrees and some 4+ degrees) from what some of these bands just posted on their official weather reports less than a week ago. Seems a lot understanding there can be a slight change due to ISSMA vs. BOA temperature gauges. Got a lot colder in Carmel! ISSMA is not the same as BOA an more than UIL is. Also, Finals judges tend to space the bands out more.
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Post by paddy on Oct 20, 2021 13:08:12 GMT -6
Greenwood in local competition was behind Greenfield by 1.5 points last week same block/same panel. LT was .9 behind Greenfield same panel/same day, but later time. Greenfield was within 8.75 behind Avon same bloc/same panel 2 weeks ago and 9.9 behind Avon same panel/same day, but later time last week. And these were legitimate panels with BOA level judges on them. I know the algorithm is being thrown by their poor showing at Dayton, but recent data suggests that they are in the hunt. All of this was taken into consideration. BOA Dayton was also a legitimate panel with BOA level judges. Should that result just be ignored simply because it was bad for the band? ISSMA scores do not translate directly to BOA, similar judging caliber or not. I didn't say it should be ignored, but it is adding fuzz to the calculation. If all of those things were considered, there is an issue in the calculation. Likely a biased input model like all purportedly neutral computer models have.
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Post by hostrauser on Oct 20, 2021 13:09:26 GMT -6
Choctaw competed as 2A at Renegade Review, which uses the same classification as BOA *raised eyebrow* I see. Based on the most recent DOE enrollment figures for Nicoma Park MS, Choctaw MS, and Choctaw HS, their enrollment for this year should have been 1,311 in 10-12 this year. They must have had a lot of kids move out of the area or decide to home school in the past year.
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Post by QuadSquad03 on Oct 20, 2021 13:11:13 GMT -6
Choctaw competed as 2A at Renegade Review, which uses the same classification as BOA *raised eyebrow* I see. Based on the most recent DOE enrollment figures for Nicoma Park MS, Choctaw MS, and Choctaw HS, their enrollment for this year should have been 1,311 in 10-12 this year. They must have had a lot of kids move out of the area or decide to home school in the past year. Yeah, it was weird to hear them announced as 2A. I don't know what happened.
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Post by Marching Observer on Oct 20, 2021 13:25:42 GMT -6
You asked for it, and here they are! (Okay, even if you didn't ask for it, here they are anyway!) PRELIMS PREDICTIONSCLASS A 1. Edgewood H.S., IN 2. Forest Park H.S., IN 3. Lewis Cass H.S., IN CLASS AA 1. Greenwood Community H.S., IN 2. North Hardin H.S., KY 3. Pickerington North H.S., OH CLASS AAA 1. Castle H.S., IN 2. Franklin H.S., TN 3. Goshen H.S., IN CLASS AAAA 1. Avon H.S., IN 2. Carmel H.S., IN 3. William Mason H.S., OH FINALIST BANDS (alphabetical order) Avon H.S., IN Brownsburg H.S., IN Carmel H.S., IN Castle H.S., IN Center Grove H.S., IN Centerville H.S., OH Choctaw H.S., OK Fishers H.S., IN Franklin H.S., TN Goshen H.S., IN Greenwood Community H.S., IN Homestead H.S., IN Owasso H.S., OK William Mason H.S., OH FINALS PREDICTION89.950 Avon H.S., IN 87.825 Carmel H.S., IN 86.175 William Mason H.S., OH 84.650 Castle H.S., IN 83.625 Fishers H.S., IN 82.450 Homestead H.S., IN 81.150 Brownsburg H.S., IN 80.850 Centerville H.S., OH 80.750 Owasso H.S., OK 79.750 Franklin H.S., TN 77.950 Center Grove H.S., IN 76.525 Goshen H.S., IN 75.575 Choctaw H.S., OK 75.225 Greenwood Community H.S., IN First band out: North Hardin H.S., KY (15th) Second band out: Lawrence Township H.S., IN (16th) Choctaw, Greenwood, Lawrence Township, and North Hardin are separated by less than a point in power rating. Two of them will make Finals, two of them will miss. Mix and match at your preference. Interesting you don't have Franklin Central or Noblesville as one of those bands out. Just don't have enough data points for them?
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Post by yayband914 on Oct 20, 2021 13:35:25 GMT -6
They were 49th in 2019, tied with two other bands.
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Post by paddy on Oct 20, 2021 13:36:51 GMT -6
They were also a much different band in 2019 than 2021. They were an Indiana track band who converted their show to the field to dip their toes in BOA in 2019.
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Post by yayband914 on Oct 20, 2021 13:37:47 GMT -6
They were also a much different band in 2019 than 2021. Totally, but I'm saying that hostrauser uses algorithms and so it's no surprise that Noblesville wouldn't show up in hostrauser's finals bubble conversation given their showing that year.
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Post by paddy on Oct 20, 2021 13:38:55 GMT -6
They were also a much different band in 2019 than 2021. Totally, but I'm saying that hostrauser uses algorithms and so it's no surprise that Noblesville wouldn't show up in the finals bubble given their showing that year. Huh, people treat the algorithm as golden truth around here...
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Post by yayband914 on Oct 20, 2021 13:42:26 GMT -6
Totally, but I'm saying that hostrauser uses algorithms and so it's no surprise that Noblesville wouldn't show up in the finals bubble given their showing that year. Huh, people treat the algorithm as golden truth around here... That's not what I'm saying, either. That's just one way to do predictions. Since when are predictions ever the truth, anyways?
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Post by midwamericanarts on Oct 20, 2021 13:44:44 GMT -6
Totally, but I'm saying that hostrauser uses algorithms and so it's no surprise that Noblesville wouldn't show up in the finals bubble given their showing that year. Huh, people treat the algorithm as golden truth around here... I think people are treating it for what it is… an algorithm. This isn’t the end all be all and nobody is claiming that it’s predicting everything right. In fact, it’s getting several things wrong… and that’s okay! It’s just another piece of data that provides more context. He does a great job putting this together and I’m thankful for it!
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Post by paddy on Oct 20, 2021 13:45:52 GMT -6
Huh, people treat the algorithm as golden truth around here... That's not what I'm saying, either. That's just one way to do predictions. Since when are predictions ever the truth, anyways? That is kinda my point. Just because it has the guise of an impartial mathematical ranking system it is just another person's opinion.
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Post by marimba11 on Oct 20, 2021 14:32:53 GMT -6
That's not what I'm saying, either. That's just one way to do predictions. Since when are predictions ever the truth, anyways? That is kinda my point. Just because it has the guise of an impartial mathematical ranking system it is just another person's opinion. of course it is. However, I would make the argument that is is better to have an algorithm partially wrong than not have one at all just because there may be outliers. So it may get the outliers wrong... so what it can predict many things averaged which is quite useful information.
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Post by verysaxy on Oct 20, 2021 17:57:25 GMT -6
Here’s my final predictions pre-regional:
1. Carmel, IN 2. Avon, IN 3. William Mason, OH 4. Castle, IN 5. Homestead, IN 6. Owasso, OK 7. Brownsburg, IN 8. Fishers, IN 9. Center Grove, IN 10. Franklin, TN 11. Lawerence Township, IN 12. Choctaw, OK 13. Goshen, IN 14. North Hardin, KY
First Out: Centerville, OH
I could see any combination of 1-2, 3-4, 5-8, 9-12, & 12-14. Other finalist contenders I’ve heard are Greenfield, Franklin Central, Greenwood, and Ben Davis. Although I see a fairly large gap between Centerville & those four bands, I could definitely see one maybe two sneaking into finals (as well as CVille!)
Class A: Western, IN Class AA: North Hardin, KY or Choctaw, OK (Idk what class Choctaw is in lol) Class AAA: Castle, IN Class AAAA: Carmel, IN
Music: 1. Carmel 2. Avon 3. Mason 4. Homestead 5. Castle
Visual: 1. Avon 2. Carmel 3. Mason 4. Castle 5. Brownsburg/Owasso
GE: 1. Carmel 2. Avon 3. Castle 4. Mason 5. Homestead
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