2021 Indianapolis Super Regional Prelims (Oct. 22–23)

[verysaxy]

Oct 20, 2021 11:35:04 GMT -6 hostrauser said:

You asked for it, and here they are! (Okay, even if you didn't ask for it, here they are anyway!)

PRELIMS PREDICTIONS

CLASS A
1. Edgewood H.S., IN
2. Forest Park H.S., IN
3. Lewis Cass H.S., IN

CLASS AA
1. Greenwood Community H.S., IN
2. North Hardin H.S., KY
3. Pickerington North H.S., OH

CLASS AAA
1. Castle H.S., IN
2. Franklin H.S., TN
3. Goshen H.S., IN

CLASS AAAA
1. Avon H.S., IN
2. Carmel H.S., IN
3. William Mason H.S., OH

FINALIST BANDS (alphabetical order)
Avon H.S., IN
Brownsburg H.S., IN
Carmel H.S., IN
Castle H.S., IN
Center Grove H.S., IN
Centerville H.S., OH
Choctaw H.S., OK
Fishers H.S., IN
Franklin H.S., TN
Goshen H.S., IN
Greenwood Community H.S., IN
Homestead H.S., IN
Owasso H.S., OK
William Mason H.S., OH

FINALS PREDICTION
89.950 Avon H.S., IN
87.825 Carmel H.S., IN
86.175 William Mason H.S., OH
84.650 Castle H.S., IN
83.625 Fishers H.S., IN
82.450 Homestead H.S., IN
81.150 Brownsburg H.S., IN
80.850 Centerville H.S., OH
80.750 Owasso H.S., OK
79.750 Franklin H.S., TN
77.950 Center Grove H.S., IN
76.525 Goshen H.S., IN
75.575 Choctaw H.S., OK
75.225 Greenwood Community H.S., IN

First band out: North Hardin H.S., KY (15th)
Second band out: Lawrence Township H.S., IN (16th)

Choctaw, Greenwood, Lawrence Township, and North Hardin are separated by less than a point in power rating. Two of them will make Finals, two of them will miss. Mix and match at your preference.

Quick question; what’s your formula? Do you have a method to calculate these scores or are they just random?

[rlrrll]

Oct 20, 2021 13:01:06 GMT -6 hostrauser said:

Oct 20, 2021 12:32:59 GMT -6 paddy said:

Greenwood in local competition was behind Greenfield by 1.5 points last week same block/same panel. LT was .9 behind Greenfield same panel/same day, but later time. Greenfield was within 8.75 behind Avon same bloc/same panel 2 weeks ago and 9.9 behind Avon same panel/same day, but later time last week. And these were legitimate panels with BOA level judges on them.

I know the algorithm is being thrown by their poor showing at Dayton, but recent data suggests that they are in the hunt.

All of this was taken into consideration. BOA Dayton was also a legitimate panel with BOA level judges. Should that result just be ignored simply because it was bad for the band?

ISSMA scores do not translate directly to BOA, similar judging caliber or not.

They were AAA in 2019 and I don't believe the district has gotten smaller. Most suburban districts in Columbus are continuing to grow. I do not have numbers to back it up however.

[N.E. Brigand]

Oct 20, 2021 13:38:55 GMT -6 paddy said:

Oct 20, 2021 13:37:47 GMT -6 yayband914 said:

Totally, but I'm saying that hostrauser uses algorithms and so it's no surprise that Noblesville wouldn't show up in the finals bubble given their showing that year.

Huh, people treat the algorithm as golden truth around here...

Some people might. I don't even treat the judges' determinations as the golden truth. They can be wrong too.

(But I do appreciate hostrauser's work very much.)

[hostrauser]

Oct 20, 2021 13:38:55 GMT -6 paddy said:

Oct 20, 2021 13:37:47 GMT -6 yayband914 said:

Totally, but I'm saying that hostrauser uses algorithms and so it's no surprise that Noblesville wouldn't show up in the finals bubble given their showing that year.

Huh, people treat the algorithm as golden truth around here...

♪♫ And the haters gonna hate, hate, hate, hate, hate ♫♪
♫♪ Baby, I'm just gonna shake, shake, shake, shake, shake ♪♫
♪♫ I shake it off, I shake it off (Whoo-hoo-hoo) ♪♫♪

[hostrauser]

Oct 20, 2021 13:25:42 GMT -6 Marching Observer said:

Oct 20, 2021 11:35:04 GMT -6 hostrauser said:

First band out: North Hardin H.S., KY (15th)
Second band out: Lawrence Township H.S., IN (16th)

Interesting you don't have Franklin Central or Noblesville as one of those bands out. Just don't have enough data points for them?

Heh. Funny you should mention it.

Third band out: Franklin Central H.S., IN (17th)
Fourth band out: Noblesville H.S., IN (18th)

The algorithm has them between 1.25 and 1.50 behind Greenwood. Not an insurmountable gap. They're certainly within striking distance.

[hostrauser]

Oct 20, 2021 18:02:57 GMT -6 verysaxy said:

Oct 20, 2021 11:35:04 GMT -6 hostrauser said:

FINALS PREDICTION
89.950 Avon H.S., IN
87.825 Carmel H.S., IN
86.175 William Mason H.S., OH
84.650 Castle H.S., IN
83.625 Fishers H.S., IN
82.450 Homestead H.S., IN
81.150 Brownsburg H.S., IN
80.850 Centerville H.S., OH
80.750 Owasso H.S., OK
79.750 Franklin H.S., TN
77.950 Center Grove H.S., IN
76.525 Goshen H.S., IN
75.575 Choctaw H.S., OK
75.225 Greenwood Community H.S., IN

Quick question; what’s your formula? Do you have a method to calculate these scores or are they just random?

Not random. First thing I do is assign a show "rating." If Grand Nationals has a rating of 100% (actually, I use 99% for prelims), then each week prior is usually 2.0% - 2.5% less in rating. I use a random number generator to "guess the gap" since some panels judge high and some judge low. I think BOA St. Louis came out with a predicted show rating of just over 94%, whereas BOA Indy ended up with a show rating just under 94%.

Then, knowing that the Finals judges tend to put "space" between bands (actually a side effect of numbers management), I subtract 0.3% for each successive placement. So Greenwood's show rating was 3.9% lower than Avon's (13 places difference x 0.3%)

[zippyblue]

Oct 20, 2021 11:35:04 GMT -6 hostrauser said:

You asked for it, and here they are! (Okay, even if you didn't ask for it, here they are anyway!)

PRELIMS PREDICTIONS

CLASS A
1. Edgewood H.S., IN
2. Forest Park H.S., IN
3. Lewis Cass H.S., IN

CLASS AA
1. Greenwood Community H.S., IN
2. North Hardin H.S., KY
3. Pickerington North H.S., OH

CLASS AAA
1. Castle H.S., IN
2. Franklin H.S., TN
3. Goshen H.S., IN

CLASS AAAA
1. Avon H.S., IN
2. Carmel H.S., IN
3. William Mason H.S., OH

FINALIST BANDS (alphabetical order)
Avon H.S., IN
Brownsburg H.S., IN
Carmel H.S., IN
Castle H.S., IN
Center Grove H.S., IN
Centerville H.S., OH
Choctaw H.S., OK
Fishers H.S., IN
Franklin H.S., TN
Goshen H.S., IN
Greenwood Community H.S., IN
Homestead H.S., IN
Owasso H.S., OK
William Mason H.S., OH

FINALS PREDICTION
89.950 Avon H.S., IN
87.825 Carmel H.S., IN
86.175 William Mason H.S., OH
84.650 Castle H.S., IN
83.625 Fishers H.S., IN
82.450 Homestead H.S., IN
81.150 Brownsburg H.S., IN
80.850 Centerville H.S., OH
80.750 Owasso H.S., OK
79.750 Franklin H.S., TN
77.950 Center Grove H.S., IN
76.525 Goshen H.S., IN
75.575 Choctaw H.S., OK
75.225 Greenwood Community H.S., IN

First band out: North Hardin H.S., KY (15th)
Second band out: Lawrence Township H.S., IN (16th)

Choctaw, Greenwood, Lawrence Township, and North Hardin are separated by less than a point in power rating. Two of them will make Finals, two of them will miss. Mix and match at your preference.

Considering Franklin got an 80.25 about a month ago at BOA Clarksville, do you really think their points would drop that much? I get that all judging panels are all different, but I don’t know if their points would go down after that much time. They were only 2 points behind Castle then too.

[hostrauser]

Oct 21, 2021 11:04:22 GMT -6 zippyblue said:

Oct 20, 2021 11:35:04 GMT -6 hostrauser said:

FINALS PREDICTION
89.950 Avon H.S., IN
87.825 Carmel H.S., IN
86.175 William Mason H.S., OH
84.650 Castle H.S., IN
83.625 Fishers H.S., IN
82.450 Homestead H.S., IN
81.150 Brownsburg H.S., IN
80.850 Centerville H.S., OH
80.750 Owasso H.S., OK
79.750 Franklin H.S., TN
77.950 Center Grove H.S., IN
76.525 Goshen H.S., IN
75.575 Choctaw H.S., OK
75.225 Greenwood Community H.S., IN

Considering Franklin got an 80.25 about a month ago at BOA Clarksville, do you really think their points would drop that much? I get that all judging panels are all different, but I don’t know if their points would go down after that much time. They were only 2 points behind Castle then too.

I do think they'll be higher in Prelims, maybe around 82.0, but I expect their score will drop in Finals and I also expect the gap between Franklin and Castle to widen. One thing to look at is how competitive the show is. The more "heavy hitters" there are at a show, the more the scores tend to stretch out as the judges leave themselves space. Indy is much, much more competitive of a competition than Clarksville was; as a result, the further away a band is from 1st place, the more I expect their scores will be depressed.

The first piece of erroneous thinking I had to purge myself of was never expecting scores to drop. Happens literally all the time in BOA. Linear score growth is not the norm. Consider: Hoover AL went from 76.300 at Clarksville Finals on 9/25 to 70.200 at Jacksonville Prelims on 10/16. DeSoto Central MS went from 77.85 to 76.95 at the same two shows. Cypress Falls TX went from 75.800 to 71.600 in literally one week (Katy 10/2 to Bedford 10/9).

[drummerboy]

Oct 21, 2021 12:29:48 GMT -6 hostrauser said:

Oct 21, 2021 11:04:22 GMT -6 zippyblue said:

Considering Franklin got an 80.25 about a month ago at BOA Clarksville, do you really think their points would drop that much? I get that all judging panels are all different, but I don’t know if their points would go down after that much time. They were only 2 points behind Castle then too.

I do think they'll be higher in Prelims, maybe around 82.0, but I expect their score will drop in Finals and I also expect the gap between Franklin and Castle to widen. One thing to look at is how competitive the show is. The more "heavy hitters" there are at a show, the more the scores tend to stretch out as the judges leave themselves space. Indy is much, much more competitive of a competition than Clarksville was; as a result, the further away a band is from 1st place, the more I expect their scores will be depressed.

The first piece of erroneous thinking I had to purge myself of was never expecting scores to drop. Happens literally all the time in BOA. Linear score growth is not the norm. Consider: Hoover AL went from 76.300 at Clarksville Finals on 9/25 to 70.200 at Jacksonville Prelims on 10/16. DeSoto Central MS went from 77.85 to 76.95 at the same two shows. Cypress Falls TX went from 75.800 to 71.600 in literally one week (Katy 10/2 to Bedford 10/9).

But I also think that scores at Indy Super are typically higher overall than those you predicted.   Winners have traditionally scored in the 91-93 point range and the 14th place is still above 80 points for the last 4-5 years of comps.   I think a lot of bands are coming out with great shows this year and I might even expect a little higher scores.   I seriously doubt Carmel will drop 4+ points from last week in their finals score.   I predict Carmel will score 91.5+ and Avon will be right there with them.

[70sguardchick]

Good luck to all the bands competing today! I’m volunteering and at my post in section 139 all day, cheering everyone on!

[thewho]

It's such a huge bummer, but I'll be missing the Indy Super for the first time since 2015.

I've been hearing it's raining right now in Indy. The only suggestion I have is for bands to ask if they can bring props down early. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO ASSEMBLE IN THE RAIN-JUST GET ENOUGH TOGETHER SO YOU CAN ROLL THE PROPS DOWN THE RAMP. There will be a docking bay extremely close to the field (I mean it's a literal 200 ft away). Trust me when I say you will have enough time down there to dry and assemble all your props. Please listen to the staff whether that would be okay, but the area is so huge that the staff has sent props down there without any pre-clearance before.

Best wishes to all the Indy bands!

[bandauntie]

Oct 22, 2021 7:11:18 GMT -6 70sguardchick said:

Good luck to all the bands competing today! I’m volunteering and at my post in section 139 all day, cheering everyone on!

I'm over on the end zone working pictures and see you!!!

Let's do this Indy! South Spencer is taking the field!!!

[drummerboy]

Oct 22, 2021 7:23:12 GMT -6 thewho said:

It's such a huge bummer, but I'll be missing the Indy Super for the first time since 2015.

I've been hearing it's raining right now in Indy. The only suggestion I have is for bands to ask if they can bring props down early. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO ASSEMBLE IN THE RAIN-JUST GET ENOUGH TOGETHER SO YOU CAN ROLL THE PROPS DOWN THE RAMP. There will be a docking bay extremely close to the field (I mean it's a literal 200 ft away). Trust me when I say you will have enough time down there to dry and assemble all your props. Please listen to the staff whether that would be okay, but the area is so huge that the staff has sent props down there without any pre-clearance before.

Best wishes to all the Indy bands!

I am right there with you!  I have been a pitdad for the past 6 years with my kids in the band and both are now in college so I am missing for the first time in 6 years.   Even though it was hard work and do not miss all the weather issues, it was a rewarding experience.   For all those still involved, enjoy it!   It goes by fast.   I wish all those participating the best!

[marimba11]

Oct 22, 2021 8:18:54 GMT -6 drummerboy said:

Oct 22, 2021 7:23:12 GMT -6 thewho said:

It's such a huge bummer, but I'll be missing the Indy Super for the first time since 2015.

I've been hearing it's raining right now in Indy. The only suggestion I have is for bands to ask if they can bring props down early. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO ASSEMBLE IN THE RAIN-JUST GET ENOUGH TOGETHER SO YOU CAN ROLL THE PROPS DOWN THE RAMP. There will be a docking bay extremely close to the field (I mean it's a literal 200 ft away). Trust me when I say you will have enough time down there to dry and assemble all your props. Please listen to the staff whether that would be okay, but the area is so huge that the staff has sent props down there without any pre-clearance before.

Best wishes to all the Indy bands!

I am right there with you!  I have been a pitdad for the past 6 years with my kids in the band and both are now in college so I am missing for the first time in 6 years.   Even though it was hard work and do not miss all the weather issues, it was a rewarding experience.   For all those still involved, enjoy it!   It goes by fast.   I wish all those participating the best!

So fast!

[thestraightestlegs]

Western looks and sounds great! I could easily see a Top 30 finish here for them. Good powerful ensemble sound, clean drill, lots of well written choreography, and a commitment to how their bodies move! As a visual guy, I’m totally impressed. Those kids can move!! Definitely my first surprise of the day.

[yayband914]

Oct 20, 2021 11:35:04 GMT -6 hostrauser said:

You asked for it, and here they are! (Okay, even if you didn't ask for it, here they are anyway!)

PRELIMS PREDICTIONS

CLASS A
1. Edgewood H.S., IN
2. Forest Park H.S., IN
3. Lewis Cass H.S., IN

CLASS AA
1. Greenwood Community H.S., IN
2. North Hardin H.S., KY
3. Pickerington North H.S., OH

CLASS AAA
1. Castle H.S., IN
2. Franklin H.S., TN
3. Goshen H.S., IN

CLASS AAAA
1. Avon H.S., IN
2. Carmel H.S., IN
3. William Mason H.S., OH

FINALIST BANDS (alphabetical order)
Avon H.S., IN
Brownsburg H.S., IN
Carmel H.S., IN
Castle H.S., IN
Center Grove H.S., IN
Centerville H.S., OH
Choctaw H.S., OK
Fishers H.S., IN
Franklin H.S., TN
Goshen H.S., IN
Greenwood Community H.S., IN
Homestead H.S., IN
Owasso H.S., OK
William Mason H.S., OH

FINALS PREDICTION
89.950 Avon H.S., IN
87.825 Carmel H.S., IN
86.175 William Mason H.S., OH
84.650 Castle H.S., IN
83.625 Fishers H.S., IN
82.450 Homestead H.S., IN
81.150 Brownsburg H.S., IN
80.850 Centerville H.S., OH
80.750 Owasso H.S., OK
79.750 Franklin H.S., TN
77.950 Center Grove H.S., IN
76.525 Goshen H.S., IN
75.575 Choctaw H.S., OK
75.225 Greenwood Community H.S., IN

First band out: North Hardin H.S., KY (15th)
Second band out: Lawrence Township H.S., IN (16th)

Choctaw, Greenwood, Lawrence Township, and North Hardin are separated by less than a point in power rating. Two of them will make Finals, two of them will miss. Mix and match at your preference.

Having just watched Western, they should definitely be in the Class A conversation, especially considering they won their class in 2018 and 2019. They still got it!

(Unless they’re AA now…?)

[warehouse314]

It does go by fast... no doubt about it. My kids were on the Drumline at Carmel (Class of'04 and'08)... oldest son has been on Carmel's staff since he graduated, so we still have a little rooting interest I guess.

Anyway, been volunteering at Indy and Grand Nats since 2009 and will be down there again tomorrow selling programs. Hope that there's a big crowd!

[Jake W.]

Per the Indiana DOE website, Western’s 10-12 enrollment is 614, or 14 students over the AA line. Looks like they should be in AA, but I believe I recall this same thing happening in 2018 or ‘19 and they still ended up in A, like Bellbrook did a few years back. So we shall have to wait until tomorrow night to see which class they’re in. Either way, they sounded & looked great! I would expect them to be in easy medal contention if they are indeed in A, and potentially top 30 overall. Solid showing from them today.

Fairfield was also really nice, looks like they won the D North regional over Lewis Cass. Definitely would expect them to maintain their usual top 5 placement in Class D state finals this season. Very impressive group for both their size and their school size.

[hostrauser]

Oct 22, 2021 9:09:40 GMT -6 yayband914 said:

Oct 20, 2021 11:35:04 GMT -6 hostrauser said:

You asked for it, and here they are! (Okay, even if you didn't ask for it, here they are anyway!)

PRELIMS PREDICTIONS

CLASS A
1. Edgewood H.S., IN
2. Forest Park H.S., IN
3. Lewis Cass H.S., IN

CLASS AA
1. Greenwood Community H.S., IN
2. North Hardin H.S., KY
3. Pickerington North H.S., OH

Having just watched Western, they should definitely be in the Class A conversation, especially considering they won their class in 2018 and 2019. They still got it!

(Unless they’re AA now…?)

I have Western in AA (8th in AA and 30th overall), but if they do end up being Class A they are the immediate favorites, as I have them two points above Edgewood.

Note that the algorithm has a big bunch-up between 17th (Franklin Central) and 32nd (NorthWood) with only FOUR POINTS separating those 16 bands, so there could be a lot of jostling for position in that group. Which is my way of saying that, while I have Western in 30th, it wouldn't end up being a huge surprise to see them up closer to 25th or 20th when all is said and done.

[drummerboy]

Oct 22, 2021 9:09:40 GMT -6 yayband914 said:

Oct 20, 2021 11:35:04 GMT -6 hostrauser said:

You asked for it, and here they are! (Okay, even if you didn't ask for it, here they are anyway!)

PRELIMS PREDICTIONS

CLASS A
1. Edgewood H.S., IN
2. Forest Park H.S., IN
3. Lewis Cass H.S., IN

CLASS AA
1. Greenwood Community H.S., IN
2. North Hardin H.S., KY
3. Pickerington North H.S., OH

CLASS AAA
1. Castle H.S., IN
2. Franklin H.S., TN
3. Goshen H.S., IN

CLASS AAAA
1. Avon H.S., IN
2. Carmel H.S., IN
3. William Mason H.S., OH

FINALIST BANDS (alphabetical order)
Avon H.S., IN
Brownsburg H.S., IN
Carmel H.S., IN
Castle H.S., IN
Center Grove H.S., IN
Centerville H.S., OH
Choctaw H.S., OK
Fishers H.S., IN
Franklin H.S., TN
Goshen H.S., IN
Greenwood Community H.S., IN
Homestead H.S., IN
Owasso H.S., OK
William Mason H.S., OH

FINALS PREDICTION
89.950 Avon H.S., IN
87.825 Carmel H.S., IN
86.175 William Mason H.S., OH
84.650 Castle H.S., IN
83.625 Fishers H.S., IN
82.450 Homestead H.S., IN
81.150 Brownsburg H.S., IN
80.850 Centerville H.S., OH
80.750 Owasso H.S., OK
79.750 Franklin H.S., TN
77.950 Center Grove H.S., IN
76.525 Goshen H.S., IN
75.575 Choctaw H.S., OK
75.225 Greenwood Community H.S., IN

First band out: North Hardin H.S., KY (15th)
Second band out: Lawrence Township H.S., IN (16th)

Choctaw, Greenwood, Lawrence Township, and North Hardin are separated by less than a point in power rating. Two of them will make Finals, two of them will miss. Mix and match at your preference.

Having just watched Western, they should definitely be in the Class A conversation, especially considering they won their class in 2018 and 2019. They still got it!

(Unless they’re AA now…?)

Would love to hear your review or comparison to Edgewood who is competing in just a few minutes.   I think those two will be the top dogs for ISSMA Class C in a few weeks and love to hear how they are stacking up nearly back to back.

[yayband914]

Oct 22, 2021 10:22:40 GMT -6 drummerboy said:

Oct 22, 2021 9:09:40 GMT -6 yayband914 said:

Having just watched Western, they should definitely be in the Class A conversation, especially considering they won their class in 2018 and 2019. They still got it!

(Unless they’re AA now…?)

Would love to hear your review or comparison to Edgewood who is competing in just a few minutes.   I think those two will be the top dogs for ISSMA Class C in a few weeks and love to hear how they are stacking up nearly back to back.

Very much enjoyed Edgewood’s show, but I think Western has the very clear edge between the two. I’d say by at least three to five points.

[Jake W.]

Edgewood was great! As always, I feel like Western & Edgewood are fairly neck and neck. I like both shows, although as usual, Edgewood has the more current & fresh of the two, Western the more traditional. If both bands are A, I would almost certainly give Edgewood visual. They carry themselves so well as a unit and are really consistent from member to member. Western probably takes music, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all if music went to Edgewood instead. I think GE would be safely in the Edgewood camp as well, although both groups had competent, smart designs that were performed convincingly by each group of students. Both were terrific groups!

[yayband914]

Oct 22, 2021 10:42:53 GMT -6 Jake W. said:

Edgewood was great! As always, I feel like Western & Edgewood are fairly neck and neck. I like both shows, although as usual, Edgewood has the more current & fresh of the two, Western the more traditional. If both bands are A, I would almost certainly give Edgewood visual. They carry themselves so well as a unit and are really consistent from member to member. Western probably takes music, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all if music went to Edgewood instead. I think GE would be safely in the Edgewood camp as well, although both groups had competent, smart designs that were performed convincingly by each group of students. Both were terrific groups!

Wow, can’t have two more differing opinions than ours! 😝

I really loved Edgewood’s visual design and use of color (and absence of in the middle movement), but I just thought Western sounded a lot more full and balanced and consistent, and their drill design was so good-looking. They also carried themselves extremely well as a unit, I thought. For me, it was Edgewood’s music selections and arrangements that I feel did them a disservice. Lots of punctuated and syncopated passages on the same note (“are we out of the woods yet, are we out of the woods?”) are really tough to execute and I didn’t hear a lot of that happening. But again, really enjoyed both productions. BOA is obviously a little different than ISSMA, so while they may be neck and neck in the latter, we’ll have to see how things stack up tomorrow night after finals!

[Jake W.]

Wow, can’t have two more differing opinions than ours! 😝

[yayband914]

Oct 22, 2021 11:05:21 GMT -6 Jake W. said:

Wow, can’t have two more differing opinions than ours! 😝[/quote]


: )[/quote]
I expanded on my thoughts a little more.

[ohioguy2]

Oct 20, 2021 11:35:04 GMT -6 hostrauser said:

You asked for it, and here they are! (Okay, even if you didn't ask for it, here they are anyway!)

PRELIMS PREDICTIONS


CLASS AA
1. Greenwood Community H.S., IN
2. North Hardin H.S., KY
3. Pickerington North H.S., OH

Did Pickerington North change classes? They were AAA in 2019 (wasn't sure if I missed them at an early regional). 

[yayband914]

Oct 22, 2021 11:09:44 GMT -6 ohioguy2 said:

Oct 20, 2021 11:35:04 GMT -6 hostrauser said:

You asked for it, and here they are! (Okay, even if you didn't ask for it, here they are anyway!)

PRELIMS PREDICTIONS


CLASS AA
1. Greenwood Community H.S., IN
2. North Hardin H.S., KY
3. Pickerington North H.S., OH

Did Pickerington North change classes? They were AAA in 2019 (wasn't sure if I missed them at an early regional). 

Stealing from hostrauser from a conversation on the previous page.

OHSAA has Pickerington North at 1,287 for 9-11, but those are 2018 numbers. USDOE has PNHS at 1,205 for 10-12 as of 2019. Either way, Pickerington North is right around the AA/AAA cut line.

[es203]

Lawrence township has an interesting show, should be in finals tomorrow night, but to me it felt incomplete. Anyone else get that feeling?

[Jake W.]

Oof. It does appear that Covid was rough on MPLT. I think another huge factor too is that Matt James took an early retirement during Covid (Randy Greenwell, the head director who retired around 2016, and Matt James were the director duo who created and then maintained Lawrence Central as the best of the best for a decade and a half). Probably a tough combo of events to then come out and still have a season with a national spotlight on you. I’m not super familiar with the new directors, but I’ve read up on them, and they all seem like a terrific team to lead the program into the future and maintain their high level of excellence. Just might be a few seasons of rebuilding coupled with Covid timing.

I did count roughly 130 total for LT. Crazy! About 65 winds, 30-35 guard, 30-35 perc & drum major. I do have hope for their future based on their new staff and historical expectations set, though. Just might take a few seasons to land on their feet.

Unfortunately, I think there’s very little possibility of the group playing again tomorrow night, but we shall see. I personally think they’ll land in the high 70s.

[Jake W.]

Oct 22, 2021 12:14:30 GMT -6 es203 said:

Lawrence township has an interesting show, should be in finals tomorrow night, but to me it felt incomplete. Anyone else get that feeling?

Incomplete as in pretty bare bones from a design standpoint, but I think that’s just where they’re at this year.