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Post by yayband914 on Sept 23, 2022 15:16:24 GMT -6
Morton is the only “big name” that dropped recently. I think we already knew about all the rest not coming. But hopefully we don’t see any more drop. (Also this is the Grand Nats thread 😝). I don't rlly watch the band calendars, I just see the posts on this forum that mentioned bands not going. I was mostly just responding to the guy who posted before me You’re good, I read my comment back and realized it sounded a little snarky. Sorry about that!
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Post by Shroom on Sept 23, 2022 15:48:43 GMT -6
I don't rlly watch the band calendars, I just see the posts on this forum that mentioned bands not going. I was mostly just responding to the guy who posted before me You’re good, I read my comment back and realized it sounded a little snarky. Sorry about that! Haha it's fine lol. You're one of the people here that I wouldn't expect something like that from
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Post by ilikeguard on Sept 25, 2022 11:19:21 GMT -6
Let’s do this.
Finals locks: Avon (IN) Broken Arrow (OK) Carmel (IN) Dobyns-Bennett (TN) Hendrickson (TX) M.G. Johnson (TX) Southlake Carroll (TX) Tarpon Springs (FL) William Mason (OH)
Finals bubble: American Fork (UT) Brownsburg (IN) Castle (IN) Center Grove (IN) Fishers (IN) Homestead (IN) Lakota West (OH) Lincoln-Way (IL) Mustang (OK) O’Fallon Township (IL) Prosper (TX) Rosemount (MN)
Semifinals: Avon (IN) Broken Arrow (OK) Carmel (IN) Hendrickson (TX) M.G. Johnson (TX) Southlake Carroll (TX) Tarpon Springs (FL) William Mason (OH) American Fork (UT) Brownsburg (IN) Castle (IN) Center Grove (IN) Dobyns-Bennett (TN) Fishers (IN) Homestead (IN) Lakota West (OH) Lincoln-Way (IL) Mustang (OK) O’Fallon Township (IL) Prosper (TX) Rosemount (MN) PLUS Archbishop Alter (OH) Beechwood (KY) Centerville (OH) DeSoto Central (MS) Grain Valley (MO) Jenison (MI) Marian Catholic (IL) Morton (IL) Murray (KY) Norton (OH)
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Post by BandHomer on Sept 25, 2022 11:29:25 GMT -6
Let’s do this. Finals locks: Avon (IN) Broken Arrow (OK) Carmel (IN) Hendrickson (TX) M.G. Johnson (TX) Southlake Carroll (TX) Tarpon Springs (FL) William Mason (OH) Finals bubble: American Fork (UT) Brownsburg (IN) Castle (IN) Center Grove (IN) Dobyns-Bennett (TN) Fishers (IN) Homestead (IN) Lakota West (OH) Lincoln-Way (IL) Mustang (OK) O’Fallon Township (IL) Prosper (TX) Rosemount (MN) Semifinals: Avon (IN) Broken Arrow (OK) Carmel (IN) Hendrickson (TX) M.G. Johnson (TX) Southlake Carroll (TX) Tarpon Springs (FL) William Mason (OH) American Fork (UT) Brownsburg (IN) Castle (IN) Center Grove (IN) Dobyns-Bennett (TN) Fishers (IN) Homestead (IN) Lakota West (OH) Lincoln-Way (IL) Mustang (OK) O’Fallon Township (IL) Prosper (TX) Rosemount (MN) PLUS Archbishop Alter (OH) Beechwood (KY) Centerville (OH) DeSoto Central (MS) Grain Valley (MO) Jenison (MI) Marian Catholic (IL) Morton (IL) Murray (KY) Norton (OH) Putting a LOT of faith in the Texas brand there...I don't think any of those three are locks. Bubble at best. But I would say that based on all recent trips to GN, Dobyns-Bennett (TN) should be a lock.
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Post by ilikeguard on Sept 25, 2022 11:34:26 GMT -6
Let’s do this. Finals locks: Avon (IN) Broken Arrow (OK) Carmel (IN) Hendrickson (TX) M.G. Johnson (TX) Southlake Carroll (TX) Tarpon Springs (FL) William Mason (OH) Finals bubble: American Fork (UT) Brownsburg (IN) Castle (IN) Center Grove (IN) Dobyns-Bennett (TN) Fishers (IN) Homestead (IN) Lakota West (OH) Lincoln-Way (IL) Mustang (OK) O’Fallon Township (IL) Prosper (TX) Rosemount (MN) Semifinals: Avon (IN) Broken Arrow (OK) Carmel (IN) Hendrickson (TX) M.G. Johnson (TX) Southlake Carroll (TX) Tarpon Springs (FL) William Mason (OH) American Fork (UT) Brownsburg (IN) Castle (IN) Center Grove (IN) Dobyns-Bennett (TN) Fishers (IN) Homestead (IN) Lakota West (OH) Lincoln-Way (IL) Mustang (OK) O’Fallon Township (IL) Prosper (TX) Rosemount (MN) PLUS Archbishop Alter (OH) Beechwood (KY) Centerville (OH) DeSoto Central (MS) Grain Valley (MO) Jenison (MI) Marian Catholic (IL) Morton (IL) Murray (KY) Norton (OH) Putting a LOT of faith in the Texas brand there...I don't think any of those three are locks. Bubble at best. But I would say that based on all recent trips to GN, Dobyns-Bennett (TN) should be a lock. I should have thought a little more about that. I’ll edit it. You’re right 😉
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Post by ilikeguard on Sept 25, 2022 11:40:58 GMT -6
Yea unless DB has just dropped the ball this year and I'm unaware of it, then I'd imagine they'd be a solid finals lock. At least one, if not two TX bands will probably make it but considering we haven't seen most bubble bands compete yet I would hold off on calling them finals locks since we've seen how strong bands like Fishers and Castle can get by end season This is definitely just my early season guessing. I have no influence on anything except my darling readers 😙 I have a lot of faith in Johnson, and Hendrickson being in Austin finals says a lot. Carroll has always been fantastic when I’ve seen them in person, but they’re definitely my least lock-y lock here. I’m not sold on Castle this year quite yet, but it has the potential to be up there by November.
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Post by BandHomer on Sept 25, 2022 11:42:41 GMT -6
It's why we're here...LOVE the speculation! And constantly amazed at the effort and product these kids ALL put out there.
So back to the speculation at hand - if there are 6 locks for finals (Avon, BA, Carmel, Tarpon, Mason, DB), then that list of "bubble" bands is going to be full of established/strong/up and coming programs who don't make it. On an off year for the big hitters from Texas, that's pretty amazing.
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Post by ilikeguard on Sept 25, 2022 11:49:34 GMT -6
It's why we're here...LOVE the speculation! And constantly amazed at the effort and product these kids ALL put out there. So back to the speculation at hand - if there are 6 locks for finals (Avon, BA, Carmel, Tarpon, Mason, DB), then that list of "bubble" bands is going to be full of established/strong/up and coming programs who don't make it. On an off year for the big hitters from Texas, that's pretty amazing. The bubble is simultaneously the coolest and the toughest place to be. On one hand, everyone in the bubble absolutely deserves to be in finals. On the other hand, everyone deserves it just as much as everyone else.
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Post by coleeich on Sept 25, 2022 12:05:36 GMT -6
It's why we're here...LOVE the speculation! And constantly amazed at the effort and product these kids ALL put out there. So back to the speculation at hand - if there are 6 locks for finals (Avon, BA, Carmel, Tarpon, Mason, DB), then that list of "bubble" bands is going to be full of established/strong/up and coming programs who don't make it. On an off year for the big hitters from Texas, that's pretty amazing. The bubble is simultaneously the coolest and the toughest place to be. On one hand, everyone in the bubble absolutely deserves to be in finals. On the other hand, everyone deserves it just as much as everyone else.SUCH a good point! Some hot takes in your prediction for sure but I am here for it. If there is one thing I know about BOA, it's to expect the unexpected!
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Post by hostrauser on Sept 25, 2022 12:10:09 GMT -6
I'm not ready to make Finals or Semi-Finals predictions just yet, but I will drop one bombshell prediction: Marian Catholic doesn't place in Class AA.
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Post by yayband914 on Sept 25, 2022 12:10:37 GMT -6
I'm not ready to make Finals or Semi-Finals predictions just yet, but I will drop one bombshell prediction: Marian Catholic doesn't place in Class AA. That is assuming they’re even AA this year. 👀
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Post by Subito Fortissimo on Sept 25, 2022 12:13:34 GMT -6
I'm not ready to make Finals or Semi-Finals predictions just yet, but I will drop one bombshell prediction: Marian Catholic doesn't place in Class AA. It'll definitely be difficult for them to place in a class if they aren't competing in that class! (Which I don't think we know for sure yet) 😉
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Post by hostrauser on Sept 25, 2022 12:19:57 GMT -6
I'm not ready to make Finals or Semi-Finals predictions just yet, but I will drop one bombshell prediction: Marian Catholic doesn't place in Class AA. It'll definitely be difficult for them to place in a class if they aren't competing in that class! (Which I don't think we know for sure yet) 😉 Marian won't be AAA. They're shrinking closer to A than anything else. But I think they're still solidly AA. But with Grain Valley, Jenison, and Kiski all attending, Marian has a challenge.
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Post by yayband914 on Sept 25, 2022 12:23:12 GMT -6
It'll definitely be difficult for them to place in a class if they aren't competing in that class! (Which I don't think we know for sure yet) 😉 Marian won't be AAA. I’m not sure this was a thought in anyone’s mind. 😂
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Post by philodemus on Sept 25, 2022 12:23:36 GMT -6
I think the insinuation is they might be 1A. Which... let's not do that... <laughs nervously in Kentuckian>
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Post by Subito Fortissimo on Sept 25, 2022 12:26:05 GMT -6
I think the insinuation is they might be 1A. Which... let's not do that... <laughs nervously in Kentuckian> Exactly. A lot of people, including some with some inside knowledge of the program, think they might be in Class A this year but we don't know for sure yet.
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Post by dbalash on Sept 25, 2022 12:47:26 GMT -6
I think they're going to be closer to A than you think, if not in A. IHSA had them at 967 last year with a 2 year fixed classification; Marian's website had them at 865 last year. Taking an average, that'd be 216 kids a class (when I graduated in 2005, it was about 400/class). That'd put them somewhere in the neighborhood of 649 10-12. Doing some quick Googling, the 2022 class graduated 210. A website called niche.com (which I've never heard of) has them at 837. Who knows?
Hot take: CompetitionSuite/BOA knows we've figured out CompSuite and they're waiting until as close to St. Louis as possible to post their class. Either that, or I'm smoking something...
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Post by yayband914 on Sept 25, 2022 12:55:40 GMT -6
CompetitionSuite/BOA knows we've figured out CompSuite Honestly, I think about this often lol. That and just whether or not they’re on to us in general. 😂 But, I’m feeling the answer is probably not?
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Post by philodemus on Sept 25, 2022 12:57:04 GMT -6
Maaaan... I really don't wanna have to root against Marian Catholic. Nothing but respect for that program and everything it's accomplished. But, the Bluegrass runs deep.
Now, some of you might read that and think, "Sure, but good luck. You can't honestly think any of those Kentucky Class A groups can beat them?" And, you know, historically, I'd agree with you. But, look, they weren't the Marian Catholic of old last year [still great! and I still rooted for them!] and if the school is shrinking this much, that does mean the talent pool is also shrinking.
If I were to place a bet, I'd put my money on MC ... But I don't think it's a forlorn hope to think we might keep the Class A title in the Commonwealth.
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Post by ilikeguard on Sept 25, 2022 13:10:07 GMT -6
Maaaan... I really don't wanna have to root against Marian Catholic. Nothing but respect for that program and everything it's accomplished. But, the Bluegrass runs deep. Now, some of you might read that and think, "Sure, but good luck. You can't honestly think any of those Kentucky Class A groups can beat them?" And, you know, historically, I'd agree with you. But, look, they weren't the Marian Catholic of old last year [still great! and I still rooted for them!] and if the school is shrinking this much, that does mean the talent pool is also shrinking. If I were to place a bet, I'd put my money on MC ... But I don't think it's a forlorn hope to think we might keep the Class A title in the Commonwealth. If so, it’ll be the final nail in the coffin for one of the greatest bands to ever march in BOA competition. I think their chapter has closed, but I don’t really want to let go yet.
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Post by Snowflake on Sept 25, 2022 13:13:50 GMT -6
What are some shows for the 2022 season that y’all are excited to see at nats?
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Post by yayband914 on Sept 25, 2022 13:15:53 GMT -6
I should have thought a little more about that. I’ll edit it. You’re right 😉 Lakota west is not a bubblist either they aren’t even number one in their state You’re a little young to be red wining and dining, aren’t you?
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Post by ilikeguard on Sept 25, 2022 13:16:45 GMT -6
I should have thought a little more about that. I’ll edit it. You’re right 😉 Uh, So some of those bands dropped the comp, Lakota west is not a bubblist either they aren’t even number one in their state Yeah…I’ll revise it after I get back to my home state and sleep 😅 “Not being number one” doesn’t matter much. Ohio has quite a few fantastic bands. Imagine if we used that metric for IN and TX bands! I think Lakota West is where they should be.
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Post by ilikeguard on Sept 25, 2022 13:17:37 GMT -6
What are some shows for the 2022 season that y’all are excited to see at nats? There’s a thread for that in General! Lots and lots of really cool stuff that we’ll get to see in few more weeks.
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Post by ... with a score of 0.00 on Sept 25, 2022 13:19:41 GMT -6
Uh, So some of those bands dropped the comp, Lakota west is not a bubblist either they aren’t even number one in their state Yeah…I’ll revise it after I get back to my home state and sleep 😅 “Not being number one” doesn’t matter much. Ohio has quite a few fantastic bands. Imagine if we used that metric for IN and TX bands! I think Lakota West is where they should be. Agreed. William Mason, Centerville, Lakota East, Lakota West, Miamisburg, Grove City… Ohio has a lot of talented groups! Hoping to see both LE and LW in semis this year
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Post by hostrauser on Sept 25, 2022 14:01:09 GMT -6
and if the school is shrinking this much, that does mean the talent pool is also shrinking. Here's the thing many people miss: Marian Catholic never had a talent pool. They are in an (increasingly) economically disadvantaged area, and have long given out grants to economically disadvantaged students. Even in their heyday they weren't rolling in piles of money. They really have no direct feeder program, and the band program takes all kids regardless of talent. There are kids who have marched Marian who never even picked up an instrument until their freshman year. What Greg Bimm and staff accomplished at Marian defies description. It will never be replicated, ever.
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Post by marimba11 on Sept 25, 2022 14:35:57 GMT -6
I saw Legacy (Colorado) last night at their home show, (btw what class are they in?). They performed just past the ballad.
Honestly was expecting a bit more in terms of wow factor from them but I do think they have an outside chance at semis. They're doing a pretty dark show. The whole band is in black and the props are in black.. there may be a reveal of color at the end.
They do march pretty well, and the music is... okay nothing too special yet. It does have potential. I was also expecting a larger band somehow - but they are marching maybe 90 winds max.
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Post by yayband914 on Sept 25, 2022 14:40:48 GMT -6
I saw Legacy (Colorado) last night at their home show, (btw what class are they in?) AAA.
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Post by philodemus on Sept 25, 2022 14:59:51 GMT -6
and if the school is shrinking this much, that does mean the talent pool is also shrinking. Here's the thing many people miss: Marian Catholic never had a talent pool. They are in an (increasingly) economically disadvantaged area, and have long given out grants to economically disadvantaged students. Even in their heyday they weren't rolling in piles of money. They really have no direct feeder program, and the band program takes all kids regardless of talent. There are kids who have marched Marian who never even picked up an instrument until their freshman year. What Greg Bimm and staff accomplished at Marian defies description. It will never be replicated, ever. I mean, absolutely! That’s why I would hate to be rooting against them. It’s one of the most amazing accomplishments in the whole marching universe. I guess what I meant was, “fewer people, fewer potential marchers.” I’m sure they will still put out an amazing group.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 25, 2022 15:06:56 GMT -6
I think they're going to be closer to A than you think, if not in A. IHSA had them at 967 last year with a 2 year fixed classification; Marian's website had them at 865 last year. Taking an average, that'd be 216 kids a class (when I graduated in 2005, it was about 400/class). That'd put them somewhere in the neighborhood of 649 10-12. Doing some quick Googling, the 2022 class graduated 210. A website called niche.com (which I've never heard of) has them at 837. Who knows? Hot take: CompetitionSuite/BOA knows we've figured out CompSuite and they're waiting until as close to St. Louis as possible to post their class. Either that, or I'm smoking something... Much closer than most would believe. Somehow this info seemed to go under the radar on this forum last year, but Marian was less than 10 students away from 1A in '21. If they're not A this year, they have to be right on the cusp. Not to take away from anything that fantastic program does, but I for one hope we still see them in AA. A is a completely different ball game than the rest of BOA and a drop down by MC would shut the door for most small groups for quite a while.
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