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Post by pitplayer19 on Sept 25, 2022 16:06:33 GMT -6
This is going to be a wild year at Grand Nats. Looking at the bubble is terrifying. several bands looking for their first Finals and all of them have the potential to do it. All the bands will have to be at the absolute top of their game if they want to make history, considering there are several other bands in the same exact position
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Post by Subito Fortissimo on Sept 25, 2022 16:20:36 GMT -6
This is going to be a wild year at Grand Nats. Looking at the bubble is terrifying. several bands looking for their first Finals and all of them have the potential to do it. All the bands will have to be at the absolute top of their game if they want to make history, considering there are several other bands in the same exact position Definitely a year where semis might be the real show to watch and finals more the cherry on top.
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Post by trumpet300 on Sept 25, 2022 16:35:46 GMT -6
This is going to be a wild year at Grand Nats. Looking at the bubble is terrifying. several bands looking for their first Finals and all of them have the potential to do it. All the bands will have to be at the absolute top of their game if they want to make history, considering there are several other bands in the same exact position Definitely a year where semis might be the real show to watch and finals more the cherry on top. Definitely feels that way to me. Last year was similar as well IMO. We all knew BAC were in and which Texas bands were in...semis was really the heavy hitting part of the show for me
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Post by nomorehoney on Sept 26, 2022 7:09:01 GMT -6
Definitely a year where semis might be the real show to watch and finals more the cherry on top. What are all the bands that you think are in the finals bubble? Interested to hear other peoples ideas! Castle, Fishers, Brownsburg, Homestead, Grain Valley, Jenison, American Fork, O'Fallon, Lincoln-way, Mustang, Prosper, Carroll, Hendrickson, Rosemount, Centerville, and probably a few others. This is after considering the bands that will more than likely make finals, which I would consider to be: Broken Arrow, Avon, Carmel, William Mason, Dobyns-Bennett, & Tarpon Springs Depending on how things shake out later in the season we might be able to drop some of the bands from the list of bubble groups
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Post by ilikeguard on Sept 26, 2022 7:41:15 GMT -6
I hadn’t seen the Toledo results when I came up with my list. Holy Jenison
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Post by ilikeguard on Sept 26, 2022 7:48:07 GMT -6
BTW, since it’s clear there are a lot of high schoolers browsing this thread for the first time: “the bubble” is not a tangible thing. It’s what we use to describe bands that COULD make finals. Grand Nationals is over a month away- just because your band isn’t on that imaginary list doesn’t mean you shouldn’t still fight for a spot in finals. Play, march, and spin like you’re that 12th place band in semifinals, regardless of where a bunch of adults put your school on a list. We’re here to talk about band, but above all we’re here to cheer you on.
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Post by boahistorybuff on Sept 26, 2022 8:37:39 GMT -6
I think they're going to be closer to A than you think, if not in A. IHSA had them at 967 last year with a 2 year fixed classification; Marian's website had them at 865 last year. Taking an average, that'd be 216 kids a class (when I graduated in 2005, it was about 400/class). That'd put them somewhere in the neighborhood of 649 10-12. Doing some quick Googling, the 2022 class graduated 210. A website called niche.com (which I've never heard of) has them at 837. Who knows? Hot take: CompetitionSuite/BOA knows we've figured out CompSuite and they're waiting until as close to St. Louis as possible to post their class. Either that, or I'm smoking something... Much closer than most would believe. Somehow this info seemed to go under the radar on this forum last year, but Marian was less than 10 students away from 1A in '21. If they're not A this year, they have to be right on the cusp. Not to take away from anything that fantastic program does, but I for one hope we still see them in AA. A is a completely different ball game than the rest of BOA and a drop down by MC would shut the door for most small groups for quite a while. I agree, unless the economic conditions and enrollment issues continue at Marian, then I can see maybe them having to be in Class A. 20 years ago, Marian was in Class AAA. That is a big drop in 20 years. Along the same lines, I think Tarpon Springs needs to be in Class AAA.
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Post by yayband914 on Sept 26, 2022 8:44:02 GMT -6
Along the same lines, I think Tarpon Springs needs to be in Class AAA. Why?
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Post by mtnxdrew on Sept 26, 2022 9:05:14 GMT -6
Tarpon back in the day used to bounce between AA and AAA, but have been in AA for awhile. As a supporter of a AA band that might have a chance at the AA title at Nats this year if TS wasn’t attending, would love for them to be in AAA, but if school size puts them in AA, then they are in AA
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Post by boahistorybuff on Sept 26, 2022 9:19:22 GMT -6
Along the same lines, I think Tarpon Springs needs to be in Class AAA. Why? Don't mean to ruffle any feathers. They are a performing arts magnate school for Pinnellas County Florida, so this draws more students into the high school that already have an interest in the performing arts. That is the main reason I say that. I guess I also feel that this band is at such a higher level than any other Class AA band in the country, that perhaps they could be lifted to Class AAA. Yes I can see the other side of the argument here that "so what, just cause they are really good, does not mean they should miss out on Class Titles". I certainly respect that viewpoint. They would still be a favorite for a GN Class Title in Class AAA. All that said, Tarpon is going to lose some practice time this week do to the potential impacts of Ian. I hope the storm misses them and the impacts to them are minimal, because yes we all love Tarpon Springs; they are awesome no matter what class they are in.
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Post by paddy on Sept 26, 2022 10:29:27 GMT -6
Don't mean to ruffle any feathers. They are a performing arts magnate school for Pinnellas County Florida, so this draws more students into the high school that already have an interest in the performing arts. That is the main reason I say that. I guess I also feel that this band is at such a higher level than any other Class AA band in the country, that perhaps they could be lifted to Class AAA. Yes I can see the other side of the argument here that "so what, just cause they are really good, does not mean they should miss out on Class Titles". I certainly respect that viewpoint. They would still be a favorite for a GN Class Title in Class AAA. All that said, Tarpon is going to lose some practice time this week do to the potential impacts of Ian. I hope the storm misses them and the impacts to them are minimal, because yes we all love Tarpon Springs; they are awesome no matter what class they are in. Just to put it into perspective Pinellas County has 104k students. if they are evenly divided, TS pulls from a potential HS population (9-12) of 32,000 students. I assume they have number limits for the program and some type of selection process. I believe anyone with limits to enrollment should be judged not by their enrollment, but how many students applied and/or how many students are eligible for enrollment. If Carmel, or CTJ, or (insert AAAA power band here) created a limited enrollment performing arts academy could they be in A or AA?
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Post by mtnxdrew on Sept 26, 2022 10:51:59 GMT -6
It’s tough for bands like Grain Valley, Jenison, Kiski, etc who would have a shot at the AA title this year, but it is what it is. We can talk about it all we want, but it’s not going to change anything 🤣
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Post by ilikeguard on Sept 26, 2022 11:02:52 GMT -6
Don't mean to ruffle any feathers. They are a performing arts magnate school for Pinnellas County Florida, so this draws more students into the high school that already have an interest in the performing arts. That is the main reason I say that. I guess I also feel that this band is at such a higher level than any other Class AA band in the country, that perhaps they could be lifted to Class AAA. Yes I can see the other side of the argument here that "so what, just cause they are really good, does not mean they should miss out on Class Titles". I certainly respect that viewpoint. They would still be a favorite for a GN Class Title in Class AAA. All that said, Tarpon is going to lose some practice time this week do to the potential impacts of Ian. I hope the storm misses them and the impacts to them are minimal, because yes we all love Tarpon Springs; they are awesome no matter what class they are in. Just to put it into perspective Pinellas County has 104k students. if they are evenly divided, TS pulls from a potential HS population (9-12) of 32,000 students. I assume they have number limits for the program and some type of selection process. I believe anyone with limits to enrollment should be judged not by their enrollment, but how many students applied and/or how many students are eligible for enrollment. If Carmel, or CTJ, or (insert AAAA power band here) created a limited enrollment performing arts academy could they be in A or AA? Totally agreed that TS should be treated as a special case, but I have to wonder what it would take for a reassessment of classification to be done purely for one school that is really good at band. I'm sure we'd see it if it was more common, but I can't think of a single other situation in which we have a band competing way below their pool size. There isn't a question of whether it is unfair, but rather how big of a deal it is, IMO. Coming from an AA band where the consideration of attending Grand Nationals always immediately included "when Tarpon Springs isn't going", I would like to see a reassessment of classification rules. That isn't to dismiss any of their achievements - they're incredible no matter what - but to be honest, I think TS being among bands that they can actually have competition with would be better for the students. It can't be terribly fun when you know you're going to win by default.
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Post by mtnxdrew on Sept 26, 2022 11:04:53 GMT -6
Just to put it into perspective Pinellas County has 104k students. if they are evenly divided, TS pulls from a potential HS population (9-12) of 32,000 students. I assume they have number limits for the program and some type of selection process. I believe anyone with limits to enrollment should be judged not by their enrollment, but how many students applied and/or how many students are eligible for enrollment. If Carmel, or CTJ, or (insert AAAA power band here) created a limited enrollment performing arts academy could they be in A or AA? Totally agreed that TS should be treated as a special case, but I have to wonder what it would take for a reassessment of classification to be done purely for one school that is really good at band. I'm sure we'd see it if it was more common, but I can't think of a single other situation in which we have a band competing way below their pool size. There isn't a question of whether it is unfair, but rather how big of a deal it is, IMO. Coming from an AA band where the consideration of attending Grand Nationals always immediately included "when Tarpon Springs isn't going", I would like to see a reassessment of classification rules. That isn't to dismiss any of their achievements - they're incredible no matter what - but to be honest, I think TS being among bands that they can actually have competition with would be better for the students. It can't be terribly fun when you know you're going to win by default. This right here!!
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bandisjoy
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Post by bandisjoy on Sept 26, 2022 11:21:14 GMT -6
Just to put it into perspective Pinellas County has 104k students. if they are evenly divided, TS pulls from a potential HS population (9-12) of 32,000 students. I assume they have number limits for the program and some type of selection process. I believe anyone with limits to enrollment should be judged not by their enrollment, but how many students applied and/or how many students are eligible for enrollment. If Carmel, or CTJ, or (insert AAAA power band here) created a limited enrollment performing arts academy could they be in A or AA? Totally agreed that TS should be treated as a special case, but I have to wonder what it would take for a reassessment of classification to be done purely for one school that is really good at band. I'm sure we'd see it if it was more common, but I can't think of a single other situation in which we have a band competing way below their pool size. There isn't a question of whether it is unfair, but rather how big of a deal it is, IMO. Coming from an AA band where the consideration of attending Grand Nationals always immediately included "when Tarpon Springs isn't going", I would like to see a reassessment of classification rules. That isn't to dismiss any of their achievements - they're incredible no matter what - but to be honest, I think TS being among bands that they can actually have competition with would be better for the students. It can't be terribly fun when you know you're going to win by default. Emphasis in previous quotes by me.
I can - community combined programs such as Lincoln-Way or Plymouth-Canton Education Park come to mind. Different situation, same advantage of talent selection, same lack of ability to reclassify.
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Post by paddy on Sept 26, 2022 11:49:03 GMT -6
Totally agreed that TS should be treated as a special case, but I have to wonder what it would take for a reassessment of classification to be done purely for one school that is really good at band. I'm sure we'd see it if it was more common, but I can't think of a single other situation in which we have a band competing way below their pool size. There isn't a question of whether it is unfair, but rather how big of a deal it is, IMO. Coming from an AA band where the consideration of attending Grand Nationals always immediately included "when Tarpon Springs isn't going", I would like to see a reassessment of classification rules. That isn't to dismiss any of their achievements - they're incredible no matter what - but to be honest, I think TS being among bands that they can actually have competition with would be better for the students. It can't be terribly fun when you know you're going to win by default. Emphasis in previous quotes by me.
I can - community combined programs such as Lincoln-Way or Plymouth-Canton Education Park come to mind. Different situation, same advantage of talent selection, same lack of ability to reclassify.
Except those schools are classified by their entire student population. They are both AAAA schools. Columbus North and East and Lawrence North and Central in Indiana have combined community bands and both compete in AAAA as well. The Tarpon Springs situation is different than that.
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Post by philodemus on Sept 26, 2022 11:52:37 GMT -6
You know, I wonder if Tarpon would even really mind? I mean, surely when they come to Nats they aren't gunning for the AA title? Surely their motivation is winning the whole shebang?
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Post by ilikeguard on Sept 26, 2022 12:01:41 GMT -6
You know, I wonder if Tarpon would even really mind? I mean, surely when they come to Nats they aren't gunning for the AA title? Surely their motivation is winning the whole shebang? They'd still be completely viable in AAAA. It isn't even a situation where they would fade into obscurity if they weren't AA. They'd still be a medal contender any year - we'd just get to have the possibility of an AA exhibition on those years.
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Post by paddy on Sept 26, 2022 12:05:12 GMT -6
Just to put it into perspective Pinellas County has 104k students. if they are evenly divided, TS pulls from a potential HS population (9-12) of 32,000 students. I assume they have number limits for the program and some type of selection process. I believe anyone with limits to enrollment should be judged not by their enrollment, but how many students applied and/or how many students are eligible for enrollment. If Carmel, or CTJ, or (insert AAAA power band here) created a limited enrollment performing arts academy could they be in A or AA? Totally agreed that TS should be treated as a special case, but I have to wonder what it would take for a reassessment of classification to be done purely for one school that is really good at band. I'm sure we'd see it if it was more common, but I can't think of a single other situation in which we have a band competing way below their pool size. There isn't a question of whether it is unfair, but rather how big of a deal it is, IMO. Coming from an AA band where the consideration of attending Grand Nationals always immediately included "when Tarpon Springs isn't going", I would like to see a reassessment of classification rules. That isn't to dismiss any of their achievements - they're incredible no matter what - but to be honest, I think TS being among bands that they can actually have competition with would be better for the students. It can't be terribly fun when you know you're going to win by default. They are definitely an outlier in this and while it I prefer not to legislate based upon a single case, this is a situation that could receive more scrutiny.
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bandisjoy
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Post by bandisjoy on Sept 26, 2022 12:11:51 GMT -6
Emphasis in previous quotes by me.
I can - community combined programs such as Lincoln-Way or Plymouth-Canton Education Park come to mind. Different situation, same advantage of talent selection, same lack of ability to reclassify.
Except those schools are classified by their entire student population. They are both AAAA schools. Agreed, it is a different situation with a different impact. Today.
But there's no denying that having a several-times-larger pool of talent from which to pick (audition) to populate a 150-250 member ensemble leads to a higher percentage of exceptional talent in that ensemble.
Imagine, though, if a district such as Leander ISD pooled resources and created one (or multiple bands) by audition. The top band would obviously draw the top talent from at least 4 already insanely talented schools and it would be inconceivable that this top band doesn't get a disproportionate amount of funding - best instruments, hired staff, etc. This could create the same dynamic in AAAA that fortunately only exists in AA today. It's just a thought experiment - I have no notion that a district with so many already successful programs would unify to dominate BOA. I have no notion that any district would do it simply to excel in the arts.
Maybe I'm way off. Maybe the pool sizes today for the consistently high-caliber bands are already able to generate a high enough percentage of exceptional talent - keeping them consistently high-caliber and the law of diminishing returns limits gains.
Or maybe we start seeing 350-450 member bands. Full of exceptional talent. In class AAAAA.
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Post by ilikeguard on Sept 26, 2022 12:17:41 GMT -6
Totally agreed that TS should be treated as a special case, but I have to wonder what it would take for a reassessment of classification to be done purely for one school that is really good at band. I'm sure we'd see it if it was more common, but I can't think of a single other situation in which we have a band competing way below their pool size. There isn't a question of whether it is unfair, but rather how big of a deal it is, IMO. Coming from an AA band where the consideration of attending Grand Nationals always immediately included "when Tarpon Springs isn't going", I would like to see a reassessment of classification rules. That isn't to dismiss any of their achievements - they're incredible no matter what - but to be honest, I think TS being among bands that they can actually have competition with would be better for the students. It can't be terribly fun when you know you're going to win by default. Emphasis in previous quotes by me.
I can - community combined programs such as Lincoln-Way or Plymouth-Canton Education Park come to mind. Different situation, same advantage of talent selection, same lack of ability to reclassify.
I missed the part where Lincoln-Way swept AA at Iowa this weekend 🤔 But really, I think the fact that it's just one band (or three bands, if you want to think about it that way) that sometimes come in and win a bunch of awards makes it less of a pressing issue than if there were multiple groups taking advantage of the school size classification. Those other AA bands can just plan around TS' schedule. I think we'll only see something change if TS goes every single year, or if more TS models pop up and really unbalance things.
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Post by paddy on Sept 26, 2022 12:23:41 GMT -6
Except those schools are classified by their entire student population. They are both AAAA schools. Agreed, it is a different situation with a different impact. Today.
But there's no denying that having a several-times-larger pool of talent from which to pick (audition) to populate a 150-250 member ensemble leads to a higher percentage of exceptional talent in that ensemble.
Imagine, though, if a district such as Leander ISD pooled resources and created one (or multiple bands) by audition. The top band would obviously draw the top talent from at least 4 already insanely talented schools and it would be inconceivable that this top band doesn't get a disproportionate amount of funding - best instruments, hired staff, etc. This could create the same dynamic in AAAA that fortunately only exists in AA today. It's just a thought experiment - I have no notion that a district with so many already successful programs would unify to dominate BOA. I have no notion that any district would do it simply to excel in the arts.
Maybe I'm way off. Maybe the pool sizes today for the consistently high-caliber bands are already able to generate a high enough percentage of exceptional talent - keeping them consistently high-caliber and the law of diminishing returns limits gains.
Or maybe we start seeing 350-450 member bands. Full of exceptional talent. In class AAAAA.
There is a school district in Indiana that some believe work the system to keep their schools in Class B instead of floating up to Class A...and oddly enough their best band keeps getting better, with more resources and more success.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 26, 2022 12:40:54 GMT -6
prediction...top 12 1: Carmel 2: Broken Arrow 3: Tarpon Springs 4: Avon 5: Dobyns Bennett 6: William Mason 7: Hendrickson 8: Castle 9: O'Fallon T 10: Marion Catholic 11: Jenison 12: American Fork
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Post by doublegeez on Sept 26, 2022 13:08:50 GMT -6
prediction...top 12 1: Carmel 2: Broken Arrow 3: Tarpon Springs 4: Avon 5: Dobyns Bennett 6: William Mason 7: Hendrickson 8: Castle 9: O'Fallon T 10: Marion Catholic 11: Jenison 12: American Fork I love Marian catholic in all but what’s the reasoning for the placement on your list if you don’t mind me asking?
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Post by marimba11 on Sept 26, 2022 13:12:44 GMT -6
This was actually harder to predict than I figured but here we go:
Finalists random order. O’Fallon could be almost a lock, we shall see.
Carmel Dobyns-Bennett Tarpon Springs Southlake Carroll Broken Arrow American Fork Prosper Avon William Mason Hendrickson
Fighting for two spots. A pretty big pool actually! Kind of surprising
Castle Rosemount Centerville Brownsburg Kiski Fishers Homestead Byrnes Lakota West Lincoln Way Johnson TX Jenison O’Fallon Mustang
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Post by mtnxdrew on Sept 26, 2022 13:33:46 GMT -6
prediction...top 12 1: Carmel 2: Broken Arrow 3: Tarpon Springs 4: Avon 5: Dobyns Bennett 6: William Mason 7: Hendrickson 8: Castle 9: O'Fallon T 10: Marion Catholic 11: Jenison 12: American Fork Love your confidence in Jenison, however predicting top 22 is probably more realistic
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Post by yayband914 on Sept 26, 2022 13:35:30 GMT -6
A regional champion does not a Grand National finalist (or bubble finalist) make.
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Post by mtnxdrew on Sept 26, 2022 13:38:47 GMT -6
A regional champion does not a Grand National finalist bubble make. ? Huh lol. It’s been a long work day
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Post by yayband914 on Sept 26, 2022 13:40:27 GMT -6
A regional champion does not a Grand National finalist bubble make. ? Huh lol. It’s been a long work day Referring to a few people already having Jenison in their finalist bubbles. I understand, they're fresh off of a regional win. I love Jenison and I believe one day they will get there (again), but as of right now I think somewhere between 18th and 25th seems the most realistic.
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Post by mtnxdrew on Sept 26, 2022 13:42:06 GMT -6
? Huh lol. It’s been a long work day Referring to a few people already having Jenison in their finalist bubbles. I love Jenison and I believe one day they will get there, but as of right now I think somewhere between 18th and 25th seems the most realistic. Ok, that’s what I thought you were saying. I’m thinking top 22 and placing in AA is a realistic goal for them. If they continue this tragectory, finals could be in their future
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