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Post by twhsalumniparent on Oct 30, 2022 19:02:18 GMT -6
In Addition, North Hardin (KY) fell short of semifinals placing 7th missing Finals giving way for Henry Clay (KY) to take the 6th spot and make finals. And, for the first time since KMEA started having state championships, Adair County failed to make finals. They were first out in class AAA. That leaves Lafayette as the only band to make finals every year.
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Post by philodemus on Oct 30, 2022 19:36:41 GMT -6
In Addition, North Hardin (KY) fell short of semifinals placing 7th missing Finals giving way for Henry Clay (KY) to take the 6th spot and make finals. And, for the first time since KMEA started having state championships, Adair County failed to make finals. They were first out in class AAA. That leaves Lafayette as the only band to make finals every year. That was hard to watch… felt bad for the Adair kids.
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Post by twhsalumniparent on Oct 30, 2022 20:22:01 GMT -6
And, for the first time since KMEA started having state championships, Adair County failed to make finals. They were first out in class AAA. That leaves Lafayette as the only band to make finals every year. That was hard to watch… felt bad for the Adair kids. Yeah. My wife is an Adair band alumni. She was surprised and sad when I told her.
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Post by verysaxy on Oct 30, 2022 20:45:10 GMT -6
In Addition, North Hardin (KY) fell short of semifinals placing 7th missing Finals giving way for Henry Clay (KY) to take the 6th spot and make finals. Unfortunately, I think we might see North Hardin’s name pop up in the near future when talking about KY bands in decline (i.e. Adair, Dunbar, etc). I wasn’t at 5A semis (prelims?) yesterday, but it was a rather surprising result to say the least. It does make me wonder if we’ll see the same program in November that we saw throughout the 2010s… Also, echo on Beechwood. I have them neck and neck with Murray as of now, with Bourbon ~3 points ahead of both.
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Post by marimba11 on Oct 31, 2022 11:05:05 GMT -6
Watching BA from OBA championships… still a fair amount of dirt in the opener especially. I really am not convinced they will win at the moment
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Post by bigblue2019 on Oct 31, 2022 12:32:01 GMT -6
So here are a few things from KMEA: Just my observations, 6 bands for each class in finals is way too many. Just a general observation, the judging is so inconsistent. More than half of these judges I have never even heard of.
Now onto semifinals: In Class AAA Prelims: Beechwood - 91.450 Murray - 86.10 Garrard County - 85.950 Estill County - 85.70 **Beechwood won Prelims by 5 points!!!!!
Also Adair being 12th in ME being 6th in MIP being 4th in MGE.....Make it make sense. I don't believe Adair had ever been lower than 2nd at any competition. I spoke to a renowned Music person, and they even agreed that was odd.
Finals: Estill County - 88.650 Murray - 88.40 Beechwood - 88.150
I know the it's the performance that is being judged and I get that. However, this is some odd stuff.
North Hardin missing finals?? I've heard from several people, non North Hardin people, that they should've definitely been in. From the performances I have seen....yikes.
Oh and Madison Central winning AAAAA over Lafayette? Even the Lafayette parents agreed. LOL...
I do not have a dog in the fight. Plain and Simple, the judging is mediocre at best. I've not heard of the majority of these judges. Sadly, local shows typically use local judges, then bring in judges who've never seen these groups at all, there needs to be a national judges association created, with qualified judges to pull from.
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Post by abtwitch on Oct 31, 2022 12:43:00 GMT -6
So here are a few things from KMEA: Just my observations, 6 bands for each class in finals is way too many. Just a general observation, the judging is so inconsistent. More than half of these judges I have never even heard of. Now onto semifinals: In Class AAA Prelims: Beechwood - 91.450 Murray - 86.10 Garrard County - 85.950 Estill County - 85.70 **Beechwood won Prelims by 5 points!!!!! Also Adair being 12th in ME being 6th in MIP being 4th in MGE.....Make it make sense. I don't believe Adair had ever been lower than 2nd at any competition. I spoke to a renowned Music person, and they even agreed that was odd. Finals: Estill County - 88.650 Murray - 88.40 Beechwood - 88.150 I know the it's the performance that is being judged and I get that. However, this is some odd stuff. North Hardin missing finals?? I've heard from several people, non North Hardin people, that they should've definitely been in. From the performances I have seen....yikes. Oh and Madison Central winning AAAAA over Lafayette? Even the Lafayette parents agreed. LOL... I do not have a dog in the fight. Plain and Simple, the judging is mediocre at best. I've not heard of the majority of these judges. Sadly, local shows typically use local judges, then bring in judges who've never seen these groups at all, there needs to be a national judges association created, with qualified judges to pull from. KMEA judging is notoriously, how to say this nicely... bad. I try not to put to much stock into KMEA scores, ESPECIALLY for semis cause a lot of people I've talked to from Kentucky said this year it was pretty questionable outside of AA.
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Post by bigblue2019 on Oct 31, 2022 13:55:30 GMT -6
So here are a few things from KMEA: Just my observations, 6 bands for each class in finals is way too many. Just a general observation, the judging is so inconsistent. More than half of these judges I have never even heard of. Now onto semifinals: In Class AAA Prelims: Beechwood - 91.450 Murray - 86.10 Garrard County - 85.950 Estill County - 85.70 **Beechwood won Prelims by 5 points!!!!! Also Adair being 12th in ME being 6th in MIP being 4th in MGE.....Make it make sense. I don't believe Adair had ever been lower than 2nd at any competition. I spoke to a renowned Music person, and they even agreed that was odd. Finals: Estill County - 88.650 Murray - 88.40 Beechwood - 88.150 I know the it's the performance that is being judged and I get that. However, this is some odd stuff. North Hardin missing finals?? I've heard from several people, non North Hardin people, that they should've definitely been in. From the performances I have seen....yikes. Oh and Madison Central winning AAAAA over Lafayette? Even the Lafayette parents agreed. LOL... I do not have a dog in the fight. Plain and Simple, the judging is mediocre at best. I've not heard of the majority of these judges. Sadly, local shows typically use local judges, then bring in judges who've never seen these groups at all, there needs to be a national judges association created, with qualified judges to pull from. KMEA judging is notoriously, how to say this nicely... bad. I try not to put to much stock into KMEA scores, ESPECIALLY for semis cause a lot of people I've talked to from Kentucky said this year it was pretty questionable outside of AA. You are being wayyyyyyyy to nice! LOL
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Post by hewhowaits on Oct 31, 2022 14:46:24 GMT -6
KMEA judging is notoriously, how to say this nicely... bad. I try not to put to much stock into KMEA scores, ESPECIALLY for semis cause a lot of people I've talked to from Kentucky said this year it was pretty questionable outside of AA. You are being wayyyyyyyy to nice! LOL abtwitch is always nice. (Except when he's in gay mafia mode)
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Post by philodemus on Oct 31, 2022 14:57:39 GMT -6
More than half of these judges I have never even heard of. Now onto semifinals: In Class AAA Prelims: Beechwood - 91.450 Murray - 86.10 Garrard County - 85.950 Estill County - 85.70 **Beechwood won Prelims by 5 points!!!!! Also Adair being 12th in ME being 6th in MIP being 4th in MGE.....Make it make sense. I don't believe Adair had ever been lower than 2nd at any competition. I spoke to a renowned Music person, and they even agreed that was odd. Finals: Estill County - 88.650 Murray - 88.40 Beechwood - 88.150 I know the it's the performance that is being judged and I get that. However, this is some odd stuff. I'm going to completely agree on a few points First, this was definitely some odd stuff, particularly the wild swing in 3A. Second, I've been around this stuff a long time and I had only heard of a few judges... which was concerning. Third... I think I would have had Adair in as well, though it was a close run thing. I'd have had them in over Garrard... I think? I certainly preferred their show. But, given this is a Grand Nationals thread, it would seem the Murray vs Beechwood wild swing is the mystery to spend some time on here. I think some of the discrepancy could be the Semis draw which had Beechwood much later with lots of groups between them... and in Finals they went 1, 2 with Estill performing 6th. So, within the top 3, performance order correlates with the outcome exactly. I would think, well, perhaps these judges are dummies... but I am struck by the consistency within captions. That is, all the Music judges liked Murray, all the Visual judges preferred Beechwood. Like, dummies aren't usually consistent in their dumbness, you know? If they were just dumb, then you'd expect it to be more random. So, my tentative theory of the case, right now, is that [as someone else said above] they really are neck and neck. Who wins between them at Nats will depend a great deal on who does the best job tweaking and cleaning between now and then... though, to be honest, to my ear I'd have Beech slightly ahead, but what do I know? And of course, Bourbon is on fire right now. I don't know if I'd say 3 points above Murray/Beechwood, but probably somewhat ahead of them. I'd have them as the favorite to win Class A right now, unless Beech or Murray can sneak in to Semis on points and perform late. That seems unlikely in this Grand Nats lineup, but hey, it would have seemed unlikely a year ago before Murray did exactly that, so... I don't know... but I do expect to see all 3 on Saturday.
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Post by srv1084 on Oct 31, 2022 14:58:51 GMT -6
You are being wayyyyyyyy to nice! LOL abtwitch is always nice. (Except when he's in gay mafia mode) Even in GMM, we're mostly fine. We'll make you a brunch you can't refuse.
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Post by philodemus on Oct 31, 2022 15:10:24 GMT -6
KMEA judging is notoriously, how to say this nicely... bad. I try not to put to much stock into KMEA scores, ESPECIALLY for semis cause a lot of people I've talked to from Kentucky said this year it was pretty questionable outside of AA. KMEA has, historically, struggled to put together the best panels, though I have no doubt that are earnestly trying. I think the actual problem comes down to 2 things: - We need a LOT of judges for the Semifinals. 6 judges for 5 panels = 30 highly qualified professionals. Were money infinite, this might not be a problem, but...
- We can't pay as well as some other circuits who also have big events on the same weekend.
One solution would be to go local instead of trying to get an entirely 'out of state' panel, however this has historically not been what most directors want. I love my State, but we have some outright silly ideas about band judging, including the bizarre one that the best judge is one who's never seen any of the groups before. Which, of course, would mean that DCI and WGI have... terrible judging?
Yeah, I know...
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Post by Deleted on Oct 31, 2022 16:02:48 GMT -6
More than half of these judges I have never even heard of. Now onto semifinals: In Class AAA Prelims: Beechwood - 91.450 Murray - 86.10 Garrard County - 85.950 Estill County - 85.70 **Beechwood won Prelims by 5 points!!!!! Also Adair being 12th in ME being 6th in MIP being 4th in MGE.....Make it make sense. I don't believe Adair had ever been lower than 2nd at any competition. I spoke to a renowned Music person, and they even agreed that was odd. Finals: Estill County - 88.650 Murray - 88.40 Beechwood - 88.150 I know the it's the performance that is being judged and I get that. However, this is some odd stuff. I'm going to completely agree on a few points First, this was definitely some odd stuff, particularly the wild swing in 3A. Second, I've been around this stuff a long time and I had only heard of a few judges... which was concerning. Third... I think I would have had Adair in as well, though it was a close run thing. I'd have had them in over Garrard... I think? I certainly preferred their show. But, given this is a Grand Nationals thread, it would seem the Murray vs Beechwood wild swing is the mystery to spend some time on here. I think some of the discrepancy could be the Semis draw which had Beechwood much later with lots of groups between them... and in Finals they went 1, 2 with Estill performing 6th. So, within the top 3, performance order correlates with the outcome exactly. I would think, well, perhaps these judges are dummies... but I am struck by the consistency within captions. That is, all the Music judges liked Murray, all the Visual judges preferred Beechwood. Like, dummies aren't usually consistent in their dumbness, you know? If they were just dumb, then you'd expect it to be more random. So, my tentative theory of the case, right now, is that [as someone else said above] they really are neck and neck. Who wins between them at Nats will depend a great deal on who does the best job tweaking and cleaning between now and then... though, to be honest, to my ear I'd have Beech slightly ahead, but what do I know? And of course, Bourbon is on fire right now. I don't know if I'd say 3 points above Murray/Beechwood, but probably somewhat ahead of them. I'd have them as the favorite to win Class A right now, unless Beech or Murray can sneak in to Semis on points and perform late. That seems unlikely in this Grand Nats lineup, but hey, it would have seemed unlikely a year ago before Murray did exactly that, so... I don't know... but I do expect to see all 3 on Saturday. Alter is left out of the A conversation every year and always sneaks up on everyone. Big fan of what they did last year so I made sure to arrive early at Centerville this weekend to get a clearer picture of the fight we'll see in Indy. Personally I definitely still have them in contention as well. Have not seen Murray since their regional performance but I'm of the opinion that we may have a 4 horse race on our hands.
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Post by bigblue2019 on Oct 31, 2022 16:40:26 GMT -6
I'm going to completely agree on a few points First, this was definitely some odd stuff, particularly the wild swing in 3A. Second, I've been around this stuff a long time and I had only heard of a few judges... which was concerning. Third... I think I would have had Adair in as well, though it was a close run thing. I'd have had them in over Garrard... I think? I certainly preferred their show. But, given this is a Grand Nationals thread, it would seem the Murray vs Beechwood wild swing is the mystery to spend some time on here. I think some of the discrepancy could be the Semis draw which had Beechwood much later with lots of groups between them... and in Finals they went 1, 2 with Estill performing 6th. So, within the top 3, performance order correlates with the outcome exactly. I would think, well, perhaps these judges are dummies... but I am struck by the consistency within captions. That is, all the Music judges liked Murray, all the Visual judges preferred Beechwood. Like, dummies aren't usually consistent in their dumbness, you know? If they were just dumb, then you'd expect it to be more random. So, my tentative theory of the case, right now, is that [as someone else said above] they really are neck and neck. Who wins between them at Nats will depend a great deal on who does the best job tweaking and cleaning between now and then... though, to be honest, to my ear I'd have Beech slightly ahead, but what do I know? And of course, Bourbon is on fire right now. I don't know if I'd say 3 points above Murray/Beechwood, but probably somewhat ahead of them. I'd have them as the favorite to win Class A right now, unless Beech or Murray can sneak in to Semis on points and perform late. That seems unlikely in this Grand Nats lineup, but hey, it would have seemed unlikely a year ago before Murray did exactly that, so... I don't know... but I do expect to see all 3 on Saturday. Alter is left out of the A conversation every year and always sneaks up on everyone. Big fan of what they did last year so I made sure to arrive early at Centerville this weekend to get a clearer picture of the fight we'll see in Indy. Personally I definitely still have them in contention as well. Have not seen Murray since their regional performance but I'm of the opinion that we may have a 4 horse race on our hands. Alter will be in, Along with the KY3. From speaking too people who were at EKU Saturday night, these are non BoCo people, BoCo was absolutely lit!
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Post by saturdaynightlights on Oct 31, 2022 17:23:13 GMT -6
KMEA judging is notoriously, how to say this nicely... bad. I try not to put to much stock into KMEA scores, ESPECIALLY for semis cause a lot of people I've talked to from Kentucky said this year it was pretty questionable outside of AA. KMEA has, historically, struggled to put together the best panels, though I have no doubt that are earnestly trying. I think the actual problem comes down to 2 things: - We need a LOT of judges for the Semifinals. 6 judges for 5 panels = 30 highly qualified professionals. Were money infinite, this might not be a problem, but...
- We can't pay as well as some other circuits who also have big events on the same weekend.
One solution would be to go local instead of trying to get an entirely 'out of state' panel, however this has historically not been what most directors want. I love my State, but we have some outright silly ideas about band judging, including the bizarre one that the best judge is one who's never seen any of the groups before. Which, of course, would mean that DCI and WGI have... terrible judging?
Yeah, I know... The sheer volume of judges needed across the country, especially considering it's Area weekend plus BOA and USBands, plus Semi-State, etc. just pile on top of everything else too.
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Post by dbdbdb on Oct 31, 2022 20:07:51 GMT -6
Alter is left out of the A conversation every year and always sneaks up on everyone. Big fan of what they did last year so I made sure to arrive early at Centerville this weekend to get a clearer picture of the fight we'll see in Indy. Personally I definitely still have them in contention as well. Have not seen Murray since their regional performance but I'm of the opinion that we may have a 4 horse race on our hands. [/quote]
Alter’s show is one of my favorites this year. They had a huge fan base at ETSU. The music is awesome, and I am totally impressed by how they make a tiny band feel big on the field. Can’t wait to see them again at GN.
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Post by stlbanddad on Oct 31, 2022 22:28:58 GMT -6
Alter is left out of the A conversation every year and always sneaks up on everyone. Big fan of what they did last year so I made sure to arrive early at Centerville this weekend to get a clearer picture of the fight we'll see in Indy. Personally I definitely still have them in contention as well. Have not seen Murray since their regional performance but I'm of the opinion that we may have a 4 horse race on our hands. Alter’s show is one of my favorites this year. They had a huge fan base at ETSU. The music is awesome, and I am totally impressed by how they make a tiny band feel big on the field. Can’t wait to see them again at GN. Same here. I saw them in St Louis last year and after they finished, I just wanted to see their show again because I couldn’t explain how such a small band grabbed my attention like they did. Nobody should ever count them out of the A conversation.
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Post by marchingartsfan on Oct 31, 2022 22:51:34 GMT -6
2 Weeks out Grand National Semifinals predictions
I will be the first to let you know that I have not seen all of these groups and I probably missed somebody. Feel free to let me know if there are any other groups that you feel should be on my list. I tried to be a little spicy here, and I will adjust based on San Antonio, ISSMA, etc results coming up. I welcome any feedback!
1: Avon, IN 2: Tarpon Springs, FL 3: Broken Arrow, OK 4: Carmel, IN 5: Dobyns-Bennett, TN 6: William Mason, OH 7: MG Johnson, TX 8: Brownsburg, IN 9: Fishers, IN 10: Mustang, OK 11: American Fork, UT 12: Rosemount, MN ————————— 13: Prosper, TX 14: James F. Byrnes, SC 15: Hendrickson, TX 16: O’Fallon Township, IL 17: Castle, IN 18: Jenison, MI 19: Lincoln-Way, IL 20: Grain Valley, MO 21: Kiski Area, PA 22: Homestead, IN ————————— 23: Morton, IL 24: Centerville, OH 25: Goshen, IN 26: Stoneman Douglas, FL 27: Cleveland, NC 28: Lakota West, OH 29: Lakota East, OH 30: Catawba Ridge, SC ————————— 31: Bourbon County, KY* 32: Murray, KY* 33: Beechwood, KY* 34: Archbishop Alter, OH*
AAAA: 1st: Avon, IN 2nd: Broken Arrow, OK 3rd: Carmel, IN
AAA: 1st: Dobyns-Bennett, TN 2nd: Rosemount, MN 3rd: Hendrickson, TX
AA: 1st: Tarpon Springs, FL 2nd: Jenison, MI 3rd: Grain Valley, MO
A: 1st: Bourbon County, KY 2nd: Murray, KY 3rd: Beechwood, KY
*=Class Rep
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Post by marimba11 on Oct 31, 2022 23:56:03 GMT -6
I listened to DB a few times of their finals performance at Jacksonville while studying 😜. Anyway I think the judges got it right between them and Byrnes. BUT, I really do think DB is the better playing band, however they honestly blew some (easily fixable) musical moments. A few early attacks, a tear with the battery at the beginning of Candide, some over-playing here and there. Small errors, but obvious ones - and obvious errors are the ones that hurt because a judge will just immediately call it out.
I hope they can hone it in! I do really love the show.
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Post by pitplayer19 on Nov 1, 2022 0:26:40 GMT -6
Speaking of DB, I just watched their show for the first time and I feel very good about them having a strong showing at GN. The show is pretty charming in its design, the ballad is gorgeous, the woodwinds sound great particularly in the opener, all in all it just looks like a very solid show. The closer I feel like has some odd pacing to it and the front ensemble could use a little bit of cleaning at the beginning of it but Candide is a great piece to play (I may be bias because I just learned it in concert band though) and I think the show has all the pieces it needs for an upper half finish. It’s unique and interesting and will stick out as one to watch.
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Post by northbanddad on Nov 1, 2022 10:04:48 GMT -6
Here’s my Semifinals/Finals prediction:
1. Broken Arrow H.S., OK 2. Avon H.S., IN 3. Carmel H.S., IN 4. Tarpon Springs H.S., FL 5. Dobyns-Bennett H.S., TN 6. William Mason H.S., OH 7. Fishers H.S., IN 8. Moe & Gene Johnson H.S., TX 9. Mustang H.S., OK 10. Brownsburg H.S., IN 11. Prosper H.S., TX 12. American Fork H.S., UT ----------------------- 13. Hendrickson H.S., TX 14. Rosemount H.S., MN 15. O'Fallon Township H.S., IL 16. Castle H.S., IN 17. Southlake Carroll H.S., TX 18. James F. Byrnes H.S., SC 19. Lincoln-Way Community H.S., IL 20. Grain Valley H.S., MO 21. Kiski Area H.S., PA 22. Centerville H.S., OH 23. Goshen H.S., IN 24. Jenison H.S., MI 25. Homestead H.S., MO 26. Center Grove H.S., IN 27. Morton H.S., IL 28. Lakota West H.S., OH 29. Lakota East, H.S., OH 30. Murray H.S., KY 31. Reeths-Puffer H.S., MI
Thoughts:
* Broken Arrow takes gold again. I know this is not the popular take, and I will not be surprise if Avon or Carmel takes gold from BA. But as much as they don’t look “super” clean in the OBA video right now, IMO their show’s ceiling is higher than Avon or Carmel. And I think BA can clean it to the “Edge” of greatness where they take the trophy back. * Top 6 is a lock, not breaking news. Fishers and MGJ are probably a lock too. Which really leaves 9-12 open, 4 spots in contention. * Dinosaurs, sharks, and now Prom Night, I just think Mustang is the poster child for shows that your band kiddos would actually love to play. I hope they clean well. I’m cheering for them to get in. From STL to GN, I’m excited to see how the show evolves. * As much as Brownsburg’s show seems to have mix reviews, comparing them to other bubble bands, I also don’t see a reason why they won’t be in Finals just from strength of performance. * Prosper seems to be cleaner based on the UIL video. I’m still iffy on them, but my gut says they’re in Finals. * We’ll see more of AF this weekend. Not my favorite show, but I also feel they are in Finals. * I would have put Hendrickson in Finals, but cancelling out of Waco is not good. I hope they get well soon. * I agree with the sentiment that Rosemount could be the surprise band here. They have the show design and music that can get them into Finals. But only if they can clean and get better in musical performance. The last time I saw them in real competition was in YIM vs Lincoln, that’s almost a month now. I’m excited to see how much they’ve improve, but also concern they have not competed in awhile. As much as I would love love them to be in Finals, and I hope they have the proverbial great run, this is only their second time in Grand Nats. * I still maintain 9-19 continues to be a crapshoot, and that is good and exciting for all of us watching.
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Post by ncscbandfan on Nov 1, 2022 11:34:17 GMT -6
I'll throw my predictions in the ring.
1. Avon 2. Broken Arrow 3. Carmel 4. Tarpon Springs 5. William Mason 6. DB 7. MG Johnson 8. Fishers 9. Brownsburg 10. Prosper 11. Mustang 12. American Fork --------------------- 13. Rosemount 14. Castle 15. O'Fallon 16. Byrnes 17. Hendrickson 18. Lincoln-Way 19. Southlake-Carroll 20. Goshen 21. Grain Valley 22. Centerville 23. Jenison 24. Homestead 25. Morton 26. Lakota East 27. Kiski Area 28. Catawba Ridge 29. Cleveland 30. Lakota West 31. Bourbon County (A-1) 32. Murray (A-2)
33. Beechwood (A-2)
34. Archbishop Alter (A-1) ------------------------------- 35. Stoneman Douglas 36. Marian Catholic 37. Miamisburg
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Post by hewhowaits on Nov 1, 2022 18:06:40 GMT -6
Adjudication Panel Music - David Carbone, Wayne Dillon, Glenn Fugett, Martin Griffin, Mark Hoskins, Nola Jones, Jay Kennedy, Allan Kristensen, Jager Loyde, Mark McGahey, Chester Phillips, Caleb Rothe Visual - Mike Anderson, Lee Carlson, William Chumley, Jackie Gilley, John Howell, Meghan McCourt, Kyle Miller, Jim Sturgeon, Michael Turner Chief Judge - John Phillips
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Post by trumpet300 on Nov 1, 2022 18:55:58 GMT -6
I'll take a stab...I'll end up changing these I'm sure over the next week.
1. Avon 2. Carmel 3. Broken Arrow 4. William Mason 5. Tarpon Springs 6. Fishers 7. DB 8. Brownsburg 9. MG Johnson 10. Prosper 11. O'Fallon 12. American Fork --------------------- 13. Hendrickson 14. Castle 15. Mustang 16. Lincoln Way 17. Byrnes 18. Southlake-Carroll 19. Rosemount 20. Kiski 21. Grain Valley 22. Jenison 23. Centerville 24. Goshen 25. Homestead 26. Lakota West 27. Catawba Ridge 28. Morton 29. Lakota East 30. Cleveland 31. Marian Catholic 32. Murray 33. Beechwood 34. Bourbon County 35. Archbishop Alter
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Post by doublegeez on Nov 1, 2022 19:54:14 GMT -6
I guess I’ll put my BOLD predictions out there! 1. Avon 2. Carmel 3. Tarpon Springs 4. Broken Arrow 5. William Mason 6. Fishers 7. DB 8. Brownsburg 9. Castle 10. American Fork 11. O Fallon 12. Centerville 🤨
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Post by WILKINSON on Nov 1, 2022 19:55:34 GMT -6
I guess I’ll put my BOLD predictions out there! 1. Avon 2. Carmel 3. Tarpon Springs 4. Broken Arrow 5. William Mason 6. Fishers 7. DB 8. Brownsburg 9. Castle 10. American Fork 11. O Fallon 12. Centerville Not a single Texas band. Now THAT’s bold. 😉
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Post by principalagent on Nov 1, 2022 20:45:49 GMT -6
I guess I’ll put my BOLD predictions out there! 1. Avon 2. Carmel 3. Tarpon Springs 4. Broken Arrow 5. William Mason 6. Fishers 7. DB 8. Brownsburg 9. Castle 10. American Fork 11. O Fallon 12. Centerville Not a single Texas band. Now THAT’s bold. 😉 To be fair before this weekend that wasn’t an uncommon take in this thread. But now it’s almost universally shifted in favor of MGJ and a good amount of folks seem to think Prosper can close it out too. I tend to agree with both (and feel decent about Hendrickson as well).
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Post by hewhowaits on Nov 2, 2022 5:27:32 GMT -6
Not a single Texas band. Now THAT’s bold. 😉 To be fair before this weekend that wasn’t an uncommon take in this thread. But now it’s almost universally shifted in favor of MGJ and a good amount of folks seem to think Prosper can close it out too. I tend to agree with both (and feel decent about Hendrickson as well). Three is definitely more likely than zero. But I think one is more likely than three. I put the over/under at 2 and expect the push.
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Post by Shroom on Nov 2, 2022 12:53:14 GMT -6
November predictions:
1. Avon (Music?, GE) 2. Carmel (Music?) 3. BA (Vis?) 4. Tarpon (Vis?) 5. WM 6. DB 7. Fishers 8. American Fork 9. MG Johnson 10. Prosper 11. Mustang 12. Brownsburg ----------------------------- 13. Rosemount 14. OFT 15. Castle 16. Byrnes 17. LW 18. Hendrickson 19. Southlake 20. Morton 21. GV 22. Goshen 23. Centerville 24. Jenison 25. Homestead 26. Kiski Area 27. Lakota East 28. Catawba Ridge 29. Lakota West Not sure about anything past this
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I honestly can't see Mustang missing finals and I'll stand by the idea that they were done pretty dirty at St. Louis, but there is a good chance based on their track record that they won't make that massive push that other bubble bands make in November to bring it up to the next level, so who knows. Also I'm still not sure about Prosper, most of the Texas bands coming (outside of MGJ of course) don't seem to be too on it this year, and they're no exception. I wouldn't be surprised to see them out but also wouldn't be surprised to see them in. OFT is doing pretty solid this season but the level of competition at Nats is much more intense than it was in 2018, so for them to make finals would require them to really hone in on their usual Vis/Ind problems, which might be especially difficult this season due to the sheer amount of performers being fielded. I could see them and Castle switching spots in prelims/semis. As much as I think MGJ is a lock as this point I'm pretty bullish on both Fishers and AF and both in my opinion have more GE heavy shows which, basically always gives the edge at Nats when it comes down to those .1-.4 differences. I wouldn't be surprised to see any of the Illinois bands or Texas bands to push up 2-4 places compared to what I have them at, both states have a lot of dynamism that makes it hard to predict where they end up placing at the end of the season. I haven't seen enough of Rosemount but they *look* like a finalist band, but I'm not sure if they sound like one yet.
In terms of top 4 any of them could win. Avon definitely has the lead post-Indy SR but Tarpon probably has the the (2nd?) hardest show of the season and it'll just depend on how much they can clean it. I still think they bit off a little more than they should've but they're definitely cleaning much quicker than I thought they would. BA's show is serviceable to the point of silver, but it doesn't seem like an Eagle show in terms of actual show design or performance, but they're still BA and they could just as easily do something ridiculous like crack above 98 again. Carmel literally sounds like you took all of the best players from Midwest clinic and turned them into a marching band. Still surprised they only tied for music at Indy, and I would be shocked if they don't either win music or at least tie for it here.
WM's show reminds me way too much of BA's show last year and while it is insanely impressive how clean it is I don't think it's going to give them enough utility to break into the top four. I also don't think the gap between them and DB will be >1.0, and while I think DB is still going to have success similar to last year, I don't think it's even possible for it to be on the same level solely based on DB managing to max out every aspect of their program last year.
I honestly don't even care about the Eagle at this point, too many of the same faces with similar shows every year. 7-20 or so have been so dynamic these past 2 seasons that semis have become the real show that I'm excited to watch, not finals.
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Post by Allohak on Nov 3, 2022 6:07:43 GMT -6
Bump because this was buried 10 pages deep and one week from now the first performing band's front ensemble will be staged and ready to enter the field
OFFICIAL PRELIMS SCHEDULE AS OF 10/17/2022
THURSDAY Panel 1 8:30 - Bourbon County H.S., KY 8:45 - John Hardin H.S., KY 9:00 - Tipton H.S., IN 9:15 - Bishop Fenwick H.S., OH 9:30 - Anderson County H.S., KY 9:45 - Finneytown H.S., OH 10:00 - South Point H.S., OH 10:15 - Colerain H.S., OH 10:30 - Arcanum H.S., OH 10:45 - East Clinton H.S., OH 11:00 - Fairborn H.S., OH
11:15 - Indianapolis Music Showcase
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Panel 2 11:45 - Norton H.S., OH 12:00 - Christian Academy of Louisville, KY 12:15 - Greenfield-Central H.S., IN 12:30 - Carlisle H.S., OH 12:45 - Monrovia H.S., IN 1:00 - Milford H.S., OH 1:15 - Hamilton H.S., OH 1:30 - Goshen H.S., IN 1:45 - Bellbrook H.S., OH 2:00 - Talawanda H.S., OH 2:15 - Piqua H.S., OH 2:30 - Wilmington H.S., OH 2:45 - Avon H.S., OH 3:00 - Tippecanoe H.S., OH
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Panel 1 3:30 - Miamisburg H.S., OH 3:45 - Plymouth-Canton E.P., MI 4:00 - Campbell County H.S., KY 4:15 - South Oldham H.S., KY 4:30 - Morton H.S., IL 4:45 - Archbishop Alter H.S., OH 5:00 - Shawe Memorial H.S., IN 5:15 - Homestead H.S., IN 5:30 - Dobyns-Bennett H.S., TN 5:45 - Castle H.S., IN 6:00 - William Mason H.S., OH 6:15 - Clinton-Massie H.S., OH 6:30 - American Fork H.S., UT 6:45 - Lakota West H.S., OH
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Panel 2 7:15 - Windermere H.S., FL 7:30 - Center Grove H.S., IN 7:45 - Forest Hills Schools, OH 8:00 - Jenison H.S., OH 8:15 - La Salle H.S., OH 8:30 - Columbus Schools, IN 8:45 - Lawrence Township, IN 9:00 - Carmel H.S., IN 9:15 - Kiski Area H.S., PA 9:30 - Brownsburg H.S., IN 9:45 - Avon H.S., IN 10:00 - Lincoln-Way Community H.S., IL 10:15 - James F. Byrnes H.S., SC 10:30 - Southlake Carroll H.S., TX
FRIDAY Panel 1 7:30 - DeWitt H.S., MI 7:45 - Newberry H.S., FL 8:00 - Stoneman Douglas H.S., FL 8:15 - Deer Creek H.S., OK 8:30 - Cleveland H.S., NC 8:45 - M.G. Johnson H.S., TX 9:00 - Panther Creek H.S., NC 9:15 - Mustang H.S., OK 9:30 - Huron Valley, MI 9:45 - D'Iberville H.S., MS 10:00 - Grain Valley H.S., MO 10:15 - Legacy H.S., CO 10:30 - Rosemount H.S., MN
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Panel 2 11:15 - Prosper H.S., TX 11:30 - Tarpon Springs H.S., FL 11:45 - DeSoto Central H.S., MS 12:00 - Ardrey Kell H.S., NC 12:15 - O'Fallon Township H.S., IL 12:30 - Ravenwood H.S., TN 12:45 - Murphysboro H.S., IL 1:00 - Bassett H.S., VA 1:15 - Catawba Ridge H.S., SC 1:30 - Marian Catholic H.S., IL 1:45 - Green Level H.S., NC 2:00 - Goodpasture Christian School, TN
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Panel 1 2:45 - Broken Arrow H.S., OK 3:00 - Fishers H.S., IN 3:15 - Centerville H.S., OH 3:30 - Worthington Kilbourne H.S., OH 3:45 - Greendale H.S., WI 4:00 - Cumberland County H.S., KY 4:15 - Lakota East H.S., OH 4:30 - Walter E. Stebbins H.S., OH 4:45 - Meade County H.S., KY 5:00 - Reeths-Puffer H.S., MI 5:15 - Warren Local H.S., OH
5:30 - EXH. Ohio University Marching 110
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Panel 2 6:00 - Hardin Valley Academy, TN 6:15 - Lake Hamilton H.S., AR 6:30 - Murray H.S., KY 6:45 - Archbishop Carroll H.S., OH 7:00 - Nicholas County H.S., KY 7:15 - North Hardin H.S., KY 7:30 - Beechwood H.S., OH 7:45 - Chesapeake H.S., OH 8:00 - Summit H.S., TN 8:15 - Hendrickson H.S., TX 8:30 - Springboro H.S., OH
8:45 - EXH. University of North Alabama
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